本文選題：豫西山區(qū) + 農(nóng)戶��； 參考：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著扶貧工作的深入，其實(shí)際效果正在逐步減弱，既定的扶貧政策已不能滿足當(dāng)今及以后的減貧需要，突出表現(xiàn)在返貧、脫貧率的交替變動(dòng)使得貧困發(fā)生率難以顯著降低。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家意識(shí)到，家庭的福利不僅取決于當(dāng)期的收入和消費(fèi)，也取決于未來(lái)可能的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。貧困脆弱性的概念應(yīng)運(yùn)而生，其具有前瞻性、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性和關(guān)注微觀層面的優(yōu)越性，迅速成為貧困研究的熱點(diǎn)。中國(guó)山區(qū)生活著將近一半的農(nóng)民，生活水平較低，農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移的背景下，其收入和消費(fèi)狀況呈現(xiàn)新的特征，也引起貧困發(fā)生新的變化，因而有必要研究外出務(wù)工形勢(shì)下的農(nóng)戶貧困脆弱性問(wèn)題。此外，以往的相關(guān)研究多是側(cè)重于純粹的測(cè)度分析，未展開影響因素整體研究，文章則通過(guò)對(duì)豫西山區(qū)農(nóng)戶貧困脆弱性分類探討彌補(bǔ)了這方面的不足。 文章首先介紹了研究背景、目的及意義和相關(guān)研究動(dòng)態(tài)，在此基礎(chǔ)上闡明貧困脆弱性發(fā)生機(jī)理，并明確了本文的評(píng)價(jià)方法以及分析范式。然后，運(yùn)用調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)分析了豫西山區(qū)農(nóng)戶生計(jì)現(xiàn)狀，通過(guò)貧困指數(shù)和生計(jì)脆弱性對(duì)研究區(qū)域農(nóng)戶生計(jì)做了系統(tǒng)概括。再次，建立農(nóng)戶未來(lái)消費(fèi)均值與消費(fèi)方差模型，基于VEP模型運(yùn)用三階段最小二乘法度量貧困脆弱性，進(jìn)行了總體和分類討論，并結(jié)合分位數(shù)回歸方法剖析貧困脆弱性影響因素在各脆弱性層次作用異同。最后，對(duì)全文進(jìn)行總結(jié)和研究展望，提出降低貧困脆弱性的具體建議。 通過(guò)研究，得到的一般性結(jié)論有：（1）豫西山區(qū)農(nóng)民相對(duì)比較貧困，生計(jì)脆弱性高，且這種狀況地區(qū)差異顯著，東西部問(wèn)題突出，需重點(diǎn)扶持。（2）外出務(wù)工能夠能夠影響貧困脆弱性，是通過(guò)作用于消費(fèi)均值和消費(fèi)方差實(shí)現(xiàn)的，其能夠顯著影響農(nóng)戶未來(lái)消費(fèi)均值，但是只有低外出務(wù)工水平農(nóng)戶才能通過(guò)外出務(wù)工降低未來(lái)消費(fèi)波動(dòng)。（3）研究區(qū)域農(nóng)戶貧困脆弱性程度整體較低，受地域因素影響較為明顯，，東部地區(qū)脆弱度最高，中部最低；貧困脆弱性地區(qū)間分化較為嚴(yán)重，農(nóng)民家庭個(gè)體之間也差別較大。（4）貧困脆弱性與農(nóng)戶耕地面積、家庭勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量、社區(qū)因素和家庭當(dāng)期消費(fèi)對(duì)數(shù)呈負(fù)向關(guān)系，社會(huì)關(guān)系變量降低貧困脆弱性的作用僅對(duì)中低脆弱性家庭影響顯著，家庭遭受疾病沖擊和戶主年齡與貧困脆弱性呈現(xiàn)正向關(guān)系。（5）整體意義上貧困脆弱性分類剖析結(jié)果表明，高脆弱性農(nóng)戶對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子和強(qiáng)化因子比較敏感，而中低脆弱性農(nóng)戶則主要受到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子和穩(wěn)定因子的影響，以此為前提能夠從宏觀和微觀角度指導(dǎo)減貧實(shí)踐。（6）應(yīng)當(dāng)從家庭和政府層面采取措施降低農(nóng)戶貧困脆弱性。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of poverty alleviation, its actual effect is gradually weakening. The established poverty alleviation policies can not meet the needs of poverty reduction nowadays and later, and the prominent manifestation is the return to poverty, and the alternation of poverty eradication rate makes it difficult to reduce the incidence of poverty significantly. Economists realize that family welfare depends not only on current income and consumption, but also on possible future risks. The concept of poverty vulnerability emerges as the times require, and it has the advantages of foresight, risk and attention to micro level. Under the background of the low standard of living and the transfer of rural labor force, the income and consumption of nearly half of the peasants living in the mountainous areas of China show new characteristics, which also cause new changes in poverty. Therefore, it is necessary to study the vulnerability of peasant households to poverty under the situation of migrant workers. In addition, most of the previous studies focus on the pure measurement analysis, but not on the overall study of the influencing factors. The paper makes up for the deficiency by classifying the poverty vulnerability of rural households in the mountainous area of Yuxi. This paper first introduces the research background, purpose, significance and related research trends, then clarifies the mechanism of vulnerability to poverty, and clarifies the evaluation method and analytical paradigm of this paper. Then, the paper analyzes the current situation of farmers' livelihood in the mountainous area of Yuxi by using the survey data, and makes a systematic summary of the farmers' livelihood in the study area through poverty index and livelihood vulnerability. Thirdly, the model of household consumption mean and consumption variance in the future is established. Based on VEP model, the poverty vulnerability is measured by using three-stage least square method, and the overall and classification are discussed. The effects of poverty vulnerability factors on different vulnerability levels were analyzed with quantile regression method. Finally, the paper summarizes and prospects the whole paper, and puts forward some concrete suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of poverty. Through research, the general conclusions are: 1) the farmers in the western mountainous areas of Henan Province are relatively poor and have a high livelihood vulnerability, and there are significant regional differences in this situation, and the problems between the east and the west are prominent. The migrant workers can influence the vulnerability of poverty by acting on the consumption mean and consumption variance, which can significantly affect the future consumption average of farmers. But only the peasant households with low migrant labor level can reduce the fluctuation of future consumption through migrant workers.) the poverty vulnerability degree of farmers in the study area is lower as a whole, which is obviously affected by regional factors, and the vulnerability degree is the highest in the eastern region and the lowest in the central part. There is a negative relationship between poverty vulnerability and the cultivated land area, the number of family labor, the community factors and the logarithm of household consumption. The effect of social variables on reducing poverty vulnerability is only significant for middle and low vulnerable families, and the incidence of disease impact on households and the positive relationship between the age of head of household and poverty vulnerability are positive. 5) the results show that poverty vulnerability is classified and analyzed in the overall sense. High vulnerability farmers are sensitive to risk factors and reinforcement factors, while middle and low vulnerability farmers are mainly affected by risk factors and stability factors. Therefore, we should take measures to reduce the poverty vulnerability of farmers at the level of family and government.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F323.8

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