本文選題：豫西山區(qū) + 農戶�。� 參考：《西北農林科技大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著扶貧工作的深入，其實際效果正在逐步減弱，既定的扶貧政策已不能滿足當今及以后的減貧需要，突出表現(xiàn)在返貧、脫貧率的交替變動使得貧困發(fā)生率難以顯著降低。經(jīng)濟學家意識到，家庭的福利不僅取決于當期的收入和消費，也取決于未來可能的風險。貧困脆弱性的概念應運而生，其具有前瞻性、風險性和關注微觀層面的優(yōu)越性，迅速成為貧困研究的熱點。中國山區(qū)生活著將近一半的農民，生活水平較低，農村勞動力轉移的背景下，其收入和消費狀況呈現(xiàn)新的特征，也引起貧困發(fā)生新的變化，因而有必要研究外出務工形勢下的農戶貧困脆弱性問題。此外，以往的相關研究多是側重于純粹的測度分析，未展開影響因素整體研究，文章則通過對豫西山區(qū)農戶貧困脆弱性分類探討彌補了這方面的不足。 文章首先介紹了研究背景、目的及意義和相關研究動態(tài)，在此基礎上闡明貧困脆弱性發(fā)生機理，并明確了本文的評價方法以及分析范式。然后，運用調研數(shù)據(jù)分析了豫西山區(qū)農戶生計現(xiàn)狀，通過貧困指數(shù)和生計脆弱性對研究區(qū)域農戶生計做了系統(tǒng)概括。再次，建立農戶未來消費均值與消費方差模型，基于VEP模型運用三階段最小二乘法度量貧困脆弱性，進行了總體和分類討論，并結合分位數(shù)回歸方法剖析貧困脆弱性影響因素在各脆弱性層次作用異同。最后，對全文進行總結和研究展望，提出降低貧困脆弱性的具體建議。 通過研究，得到的一般性結論有：（1）豫西山區(qū)農民相對比較貧困，生計脆弱性高，且這種狀況地區(qū)差異顯著，東西部問題突出，需重點扶持。（2）外出務工能夠能夠影響貧困脆弱性，是通過作用于消費均值和消費方差實現(xiàn)的，其能夠顯著影響農戶未來消費均值，但是只有低外出務工水平農戶才能通過外出務工降低未來消費波動。（3）研究區(qū)域農戶貧困脆弱性程度整體較低，受地域因素影響較為明顯，，東部地區(qū)脆弱度最高，中部最低；貧困脆弱性地區(qū)間分化較為嚴重，農民家庭個體之間也差別較大。（4）貧困脆弱性與農戶耕地面積、家庭勞動力數(shù)量、社區(qū)因素和家庭當期消費對數(shù)呈負向關系，社會關系變量降低貧困脆弱性的作用僅對中低脆弱性家庭影響顯著，家庭遭受疾病沖擊和戶主年齡與貧困脆弱性呈現(xiàn)正向關系。（5）整體意義上貧困脆弱性分類剖析結果表明，高脆弱性農戶對風險因子和強化因子比較敏感，而中低脆弱性農戶則主要受到風險因子和穩(wěn)定因子的影響，以此為前提能夠從宏觀和微觀角度指導減貧實踐。（6）應當從家庭和政府層面采取措施降低農戶貧困脆弱性。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of poverty alleviation, its actual effect is gradually weakening. The established poverty alleviation policies can not meet the needs of poverty reduction nowadays and later, and the prominent manifestation is the return to poverty, and the alternation of poverty eradication rate makes it difficult to reduce the incidence of poverty significantly. Economists realize that family welfare depends not only on current income and consumption, but also on possible future risks. The concept of poverty vulnerability emerges as the times require, and it has the advantages of foresight, risk and attention to micro level. Under the background of the low standard of living and the transfer of rural labor force, the income and consumption of nearly half of the peasants living in the mountainous areas of China show new characteristics, which also cause new changes in poverty. Therefore, it is necessary to study the vulnerability of peasant households to poverty under the situation of migrant workers. In addition, most of the previous studies focus on the pure measurement analysis, but not on the overall study of the influencing factors. The paper makes up for the deficiency by classifying the poverty vulnerability of rural households in the mountainous area of Yuxi. This paper first introduces the research background, purpose, significance and related research trends, then clarifies the mechanism of vulnerability to poverty, and clarifies the evaluation method and analytical paradigm of this paper. Then, the paper analyzes the current situation of farmers' livelihood in the mountainous area of Yuxi by using the survey data, and makes a systematic summary of the farmers' livelihood in the study area through poverty index and livelihood vulnerability. Thirdly, the model of household consumption mean and consumption variance in the future is established. Based on VEP model, the poverty vulnerability is measured by using three-stage least square method, and the overall and classification are discussed. The effects of poverty vulnerability factors on different vulnerability levels were analyzed with quantile regression method. Finally, the paper summarizes and prospects the whole paper, and puts forward some concrete suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of poverty. Through research, the general conclusions are: 1) the farmers in the western mountainous areas of Henan Province are relatively poor and have a high livelihood vulnerability, and there are significant regional differences in this situation, and the problems between the east and the west are prominent. The migrant workers can influence the vulnerability of poverty by acting on the consumption mean and consumption variance, which can significantly affect the future consumption average of farmers. But only the peasant households with low migrant labor level can reduce the fluctuation of future consumption through migrant workers.) the poverty vulnerability degree of farmers in the study area is lower as a whole, which is obviously affected by regional factors, and the vulnerability degree is the highest in the eastern region and the lowest in the central part. There is a negative relationship between poverty vulnerability and the cultivated land area, the number of family labor, the community factors and the logarithm of household consumption. The effect of social variables on reducing poverty vulnerability is only significant for middle and low vulnerable families, and the incidence of disease impact on households and the positive relationship between the age of head of household and poverty vulnerability are positive. 5) the results show that poverty vulnerability is classified and analyzed in the overall sense. High vulnerability farmers are sensitive to risk factors and reinforcement factors, while middle and low vulnerability farmers are mainly affected by risk factors and stability factors. Therefore, we should take measures to reduce the poverty vulnerability of farmers at the level of family and government.
【學位授予單位】：西北農林科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F323.8

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本文編號：2014421