本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)　切入點(diǎn)：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)　出處：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整之間是相輔相承的關(guān)系,兩者統(tǒng)一于人類(lèi)社會(huì)發(fā)展規(guī)律之中。一般地,經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)從低級(jí)的奴隸制度到高級(jí)的資本主義制度再到更高級(jí)的社會(huì)主義制度的規(guī)律依次運(yùn)動(dòng)與發(fā)展,促使社會(huì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)逐步調(diào)整,推動(dòng)著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)由低級(jí)向高級(jí)演進(jìn)。但經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展并不是一帆風(fēng)順的,而是曲折前進(jìn)的。在不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)階段,其對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響方向和程度可能存在很大的差別,從而會(huì)導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變也呈現(xiàn)出不同的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。自1929年爆發(fā)了全球性經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)以來(lái),關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的關(guān)聯(lián)性研究層出不窮,國(guó)內(nèi)也有不少學(xué)者也涉足該領(lǐng)域的研究,但側(cè)重于研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的效用性,而研究經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)作用就較為鮮有。因此,本文重點(diǎn)進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)研究就具有十分重要的意義。 本文以西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)為基礎(chǔ),以經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)理論與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)理論為科學(xué)指導(dǎo),在吸收并借鑒前人相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,動(dòng)態(tài)分析我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張和收縮對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)程度及變動(dòng)方向的影響。在研究過(guò)程中,首先運(yùn)用貝葉斯SETAR模型對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期進(jìn)行識(shí)別劃分,并運(yùn)用Granger因果檢驗(yàn)方法對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行因果判斷。結(jié)果表明,貝葉斯SETAR方法能有效識(shí)別出我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的擴(kuò)張和收縮兩個(gè)波動(dòng)階段,同時(shí)Granger因果檢驗(yàn)也證明經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)是我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的原因。然后定性分析經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)整體變動(dòng)的影響,并進(jìn)一步分析經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)對(duì)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)中各個(gè)行業(yè)或部門(mén)的變動(dòng)。通過(guò)實(shí)證分析,得出以下結(jié)論：我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)向合理化和高級(jí)化演進(jìn)的推動(dòng)力；經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張與收縮階段對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的影響方向和程度不盡相同,經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張對(duì)漁業(yè)、牧業(yè)、牧業(yè)、冶金工業(yè)、化學(xué)工業(yè)、石油工業(yè)、建材工業(yè)、建筑業(yè)、批發(fā)和零售業(yè)、金融業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)等行業(yè)的影響較大,而在經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮時(shí)期,則農(nóng)業(yè)、林業(yè)、冶金工業(yè)、電力工業(yè)、煤炭工業(yè)、機(jī)械工業(yè)、紡織工業(yè)等行業(yè)受經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的影響較為顯著。
[Abstract]:Social and economic development and the adjustment of industrial structure are complementary relations, they are unified in the laws of human social development. The laws of economic and social development from the lower level of slavery to the advanced capitalist system and to the higher level socialist system were followed by the movement and development, which prompted the gradual adjustment of the social industrial structure. Promoting the evolution of industrial structure from lower level to higher level. However, the development of economy is not plain sailing, but twists and turns. At different stages of economic fluctuation, the direction and degree of its influence on industrial structure may vary greatly. Since the global economic crisis broke out in 1929, the research on the correlation between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure has emerged one after another. There are also many scholars in China who are involved in this field, but focus on the utility of the evolution of industrial structure to the fluctuation of economic cycle, but it is rare to study the effect of the fluctuation of economic cycle on the evolution of industrial structure. This paper focuses on business cycle fluctuations for the evolution of industrial structure in China has a very important significance. This paper is based on western economics, guided by the theory of business cycle fluctuation and the evolution of industrial structure, on the basis of absorbing and drawing lessons from previous studies. Dynamic analysis of the impact of economic expansion and contraction on the changing degree and direction of industrial structure in China. In the process of research, Bayesian SETAR model is used to identify and divide the economic cycle of our country. The Granger causality test method is used to judge the relationship between economic fluctuation and industrial structure change. The results show that the Bayesian SETAR method can effectively identify the two stages of economic expansion and contraction in China. At the same time, the Granger causality test also proves that the fluctuation of economic cycle is the reason of the change of industrial structure in China, and then qualitatively analyzes the influence of the fluctuation of economic cycle on the overall change of industrial structure. Through the empirical analysis, we draw the following conclusions: the economic cycle fluctuation is the driving force of the industrial structure evolution to rationalization and higher level; The impact of economic expansion and contraction on industrial structure changes and industrial sector structural changes are different. Economic expansion affects fisheries, animal husbandry, animal husbandry, metallurgical industry, chemical industry, petroleum industry, building materials industry, construction industry, Wholesale and retail trade, financial industry, real estate industry and other industries have a greater impact, but during the period of economic contraction, agriculture, forestry, metallurgical industry, electric power industry, coal industry, machinery industry, Textile industry and other industries affected by the economic downturn is more significant.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F121.3;F124.8

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