本文選題：3E系統(tǒng)　切入點(diǎn)：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境三者之間相互影響、相互制約，經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長，導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染和能源的大量消費(fèi)和浪費(fèi)，而環(huán)境污染與能源短缺又反過來制約經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；在目前發(fā)展模式下，福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長勢(shì)必會(huì)加大對(duì)環(huán)境和能源的壓力，同時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長也越來越受環(huán)境污染和能源短缺的約束。這就對(duì)未來福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長提出要求，要協(xié)調(diào)好經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源和環(huán)境三者之間的關(guān)系，做到既要保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，合理利用能源，又要保護(hù)好環(huán)境。 本文以能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境（3E）系統(tǒng)和系統(tǒng)論為基礎(chǔ)，構(gòu)建了福建省3E系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型，并利用VENSIM軟件對(duì)福建省3E系統(tǒng)的未來發(fā)展進(jìn)行了仿真模擬，預(yù)測(cè)2013-2020年福建省3E系統(tǒng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)；然后根據(jù)模型檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果與具體特征，針對(duì)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型的核心參數(shù)構(gòu)建多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型，并運(yùn)用遺傳算法對(duì)核心參數(shù)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化求解，將優(yōu)化結(jié)果代入系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型進(jìn)行再次模擬，尋求福建省3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展路徑，研究結(jié)果表明：第一，在現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策與能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)下，2013-2020年，福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的速度將有所減緩；第二，經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長導(dǎo)致更為嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染和更大的能源缺口，環(huán)境污染和能源短缺反過來制約經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展；通過對(duì)比兩次模擬結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和能源環(huán)境政策建議：第一，轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式，向集約型增長模式轉(zhuǎn)變；第二，增加對(duì)環(huán)境與能源的投入，，提高環(huán)境和能源投資占GDP比重；第三，加大科技投入，提高污染物處理能力和能源利用效率；第四，優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)。
[Abstract]:Energy, economy and environment affect each other, restrict each other, and the rapid growth of economy leads to serious environmental pollution and a large amount of energy consumption and waste, while environmental pollution and energy shortage in turn restrict economic growth. Under the current development model, Fujian's rapid economic growth will inevitably increase the pressure on the environment and energy, while economic growth is increasingly constrained by environmental pollution and energy shortage. This will require future economic growth in Fujian Province. It is necessary to coordinate the relationship among economy, energy and environment so as to maintain economic growth, make rational use of energy and protect the environment. Based on energy economy-environment 3E) system and system theory, this paper constructs the system dynamics model of 3e system in Fujian Province, and simulates the future development of 3e system in Fujian Province by using VENSIM software. The development trend of 3e system in Fujian Province from 2013 to 2020 is forecasted, and then, according to the model test results and specific characteristics, the multi-objective programming model is constructed for the core parameters of the system dynamics model, and the core parameters are optimized and solved by genetic algorithm. The optimization results are put into the system dynamics model to simulate again, and the coordinated development path of the 3e system in Fujian Province is sought. The results show that: first, under the existing economic policy and energy consumption structure, 2013-2020, The rate of economic growth in Fujian Province will be slowed down. Second, sustained economic growth will lead to more serious environmental pollution and greater energy gap, which in turn restricts economic development. By comparing the results of the two simulations, the corresponding economic and energy environment policy suggestions are put forward: first, to change the economic development model to the intensive growth model; second, to increase investment in the environment and energy. Increasing the proportion of environmental and energy investment in GDP; third, increasing scientific and technological investment to improve pollutant treatment capacity and energy use efficiency; fourth, optimizing industrial structure and energy consumption structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：X22;F124.5;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馮秀;丁勇;;可持續(xù)發(fā)展下中國的能源、環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)[J];北方經(jīng)濟(jì);2006年04期

2 趙濤;李fE煜;;能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度評(píng)價(jià)模型研究[J];北京理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2008年02期

3 李國璋;霍宗杰;;中國能源消費(fèi)、能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長——基于ARDL模型的實(shí)證研究[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2010年03期

4 張樹偉;;能源經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境模型研究現(xiàn)狀與趨勢(shì)評(píng)述[J];能源技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2010年02期

5 趙芳;;吉林省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與環(huán)境變遷——基于環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線的分析[J];工業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2009年08期

6 鄧玉勇;杜銘華;雷仲敏;;基于能源—經(jīng)濟(jì)—環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng)的模型方法研究綜述[J];甘肅社會(huì)科學(xué);2006年03期

7 張蕾;席北斗;王京剛;霍守亮;蘇婧;;系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法在城市生活垃圾產(chǎn)生系統(tǒng)的應(yīng)用[J];環(huán)境科學(xué)研究;2007年05期

8 李文潔;;中國低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展研究——基于能源開發(fā)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的視角[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家;2012年01期

9 邵帥;齊中英;;西部地區(qū)的能源開發(fā)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長——基于“資源詛咒”假說的實(shí)證分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2008年04期

10 張紅鳳;周峰;楊慧;郭慶;;環(huán)境保護(hù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展雙贏的規(guī)制績效實(shí)證分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2009年03期

本文編號(hào)：1666872