發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-26 07:13

  本文選題：3E系統(tǒng)　切入點(diǎn)：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境三者之間相互影響、相互制約，經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)，導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染和能源的大量消費(fèi)和浪費(fèi)，而環(huán)境污染與能源短缺又反過來制約經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；在目前發(fā)展模式下，福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)必會(huì)加大對(duì)環(huán)境和能源的壓力，同時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也越來越受環(huán)境污染和能源短缺的約束。這就對(duì)未來福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提出要求，要協(xié)調(diào)好經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源和環(huán)境三者之間的關(guān)系，做到既要保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，合理利用能源，又要保護(hù)好環(huán)境。 本文以能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境（3E）系統(tǒng)和系統(tǒng)論為基礎(chǔ)，構(gòu)建了福建省3E系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型，并利用VENSIM軟件對(duì)福建省3E系統(tǒng)的未來發(fā)展進(jìn)行了仿真模擬，預(yù)測(cè)2013-2020年福建省3E系統(tǒng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)；然后根據(jù)模型檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果與具體特征，針對(duì)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型的核心參數(shù)構(gòu)建多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型，并運(yùn)用遺傳算法對(duì)核心參數(shù)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化求解，將優(yōu)化結(jié)果代入系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型進(jìn)行再次模擬，尋求福建省3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展路徑，研究結(jié)果表明：第一，在現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策與能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)下，2013-2020年，福建省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的速度將有所減緩；第二，經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致更為嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染和更大的能源缺口，環(huán)境污染和能源短缺反過來制約經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展；通過對(duì)比兩次模擬結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和能源環(huán)境政策建議：第一，轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式，向集約型增長(zhǎng)模式轉(zhuǎn)變；第二，增加對(duì)環(huán)境與能源的投入，，提高環(huán)境和能源投資占GDP比重；第三，加大科技投入，提高污染物處理能力和能源利用效率；第四，優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)。
[Abstract]:Energy, economy and environment affect each other, restrict each other, and the rapid growth of economy leads to serious environmental pollution and a large amount of energy consumption and waste, while environmental pollution and energy shortage in turn restrict economic growth. Under the current development model, Fujian's rapid economic growth will inevitably increase the pressure on the environment and energy, while economic growth is increasingly constrained by environmental pollution and energy shortage. This will require future economic growth in Fujian Province. It is necessary to coordinate the relationship among economy, energy and environment so as to maintain economic growth, make rational use of energy and protect the environment. Based on energy economy-environment 3E) system and system theory, this paper constructs the system dynamics model of 3e system in Fujian Province, and simulates the future development of 3e system in Fujian Province by using VENSIM software. The development trend of 3e system in Fujian Province from 2013 to 2020 is forecasted, and then, according to the model test results and specific characteristics, the multi-objective programming model is constructed for the core parameters of the system dynamics model, and the core parameters are optimized and solved by genetic algorithm. The optimization results are put into the system dynamics model to simulate again, and the coordinated development path of the 3e system in Fujian Province is sought. The results show that: first, under the existing economic policy and energy consumption structure, 2013-2020, The rate of economic growth in Fujian Province will be slowed down. Second, sustained economic growth will lead to more serious environmental pollution and greater energy gap, which in turn restricts economic development. By comparing the results of the two simulations, the corresponding economic and energy environment policy suggestions are put forward: first, to change the economic development model to the intensive growth model; second, to increase investment in the environment and energy. Increasing the proportion of environmental and energy investment in GDP; third, increasing scientific and technological investment to improve pollutant treatment capacity and energy use efficiency; fourth, optimizing industrial structure and energy consumption structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：X22;F124.5;F224

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