【摘要】：當前，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)面臨著日漸復雜、愈發(fā)動態(tài)的內(nèi)外環(huán)境變化，隨著國家房價調(diào)控措施日趨成熟，市場環(huán)境的日趨規(guī)范、融資環(huán)境的惡化、新競爭者的涌入，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)要想獲取競爭優(yōu)勢，就必須不斷提高自身價值。然而，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)是典型的資金密集型企業(yè)，存在股權(quán)融資過度偏好，偏重于規(guī)�；l(fā)展，注重利潤增長以及忽視股權(quán)成本、資本使用效率較低的問題。傳統(tǒng)的估值方法忽略了權(quán)益資本成本，受會計信息失真影響較大，無法滿足正確認識企業(yè)價值的要求，，而EVA估值模型全面考慮房企的資金成本，剔除會計準則對會計信息的扭曲，著眼企業(yè)的長遠發(fā)展。 在理論部分，本文從基本原理、會計調(diào)整、使用方法闡述了EVA的計算方法，并成功推導出EVA價值評估模型的幾種特殊形式�；诜康禺a(chǎn)企業(yè)特殊的會計處理特點，通過比較各類模型的優(yōu)劣和適用條件，本文認為EVA估值模型適用于房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)價值評估，而且與其他評估方法相比更有優(yōu)勢及可操作性，它的優(yōu)勢之處在于全面考慮資金成本、關(guān)注企業(yè)長遠價值創(chuàng)造和將價值評估與業(yè)績評價的有機統(tǒng)一。 在案例分析中，本文選擇房地產(chǎn)龍頭企業(yè)保利地產(chǎn)作為研究對象。首先從收入與盈利分析、每股指標分析、資產(chǎn)負債分析和未來發(fā)展趨勢判斷和保利經(jīng)營戰(zhàn)略分析四個維度去剖析保利目前的財務狀況和未來業(yè)績預期，從分析結(jié)果看選用EVA三階段估值模型比較合理。將各個預測年份的經(jīng)濟增加值貼現(xiàn)之和加總估算出2011年底保利企業(yè)價值折合每股12.92元，與當時市價偏差28%，而隨后的股價估值收復的趨勢和上漲通道的形成表明估值結(jié)果有一定的準確性。后續(xù)敏感性分析也表明加權(quán)平均資本成本的偏差對于內(nèi)在價值的影響比較大，說明折現(xiàn)率在估值模型應該重點關(guān)注。對估值結(jié)果的深層次挖掘，本文從需求、供給和市場預期三個方面分別說明了股價被低估背后有著深刻的時代背景和合理的解釋。文中最后提出了基于EVA的價值驅(qū)動因素分析，并總結(jié)保利提高企業(yè)價值的幾點建議。 本文希望結(jié)合剖析保利地產(chǎn)運用EVA模型估值的例子，能以此為今后研究房地產(chǎn)上市公司價值評估提供借鑒意義，為房地產(chǎn)公司更客觀、更有效地開展日常經(jīng)營活動和各項決策提供可靠依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:At present, real estate enterprises are facing more and more complex and dynamic internal and external environmental changes. With the maturing of national housing price control measures, the increasingly standardized market environment, the deterioration of financing environment, the influx of new competitors. Real estate enterprises want to gain competitive advantage, they must constantly improve their own value. However, the real estate enterprise is a typical capital-intensive enterprise, which has the problems of excessive preference of equity financing, emphasis on large-scale development, attention to profit growth and neglect of the cost of equity, and low efficiency of capital use. The traditional valuation method neglects the cost of equity capital, which is greatly influenced by the distortion of accounting information, and cannot meet the requirements of correct understanding of enterprise value. However, the EVA valuation model considers the capital cost of housing enterprises in a comprehensive way. Eliminate the distortion of accounting information and focus on the long-term development of enterprises. In the theoretical part, this paper expounds the calculation method of EVA from the basic principle, accounting adjustment and using method, and successfully deduces several special forms of EVA value evaluation model. Based on the special accounting characteristics of real estate enterprises, and by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various models and their applicable conditions, this paper holds that the EVA valuation model is suitable for the valuation of real estate enterprises and has more advantages and maneuverability compared with other evaluation methods. Its advantage lies in considering the cost of funds comprehensively, paying attention to the long-term value creation of enterprises and unifying the evaluation of value and performance. In the case analysis, this article chooses the real estate leading enterprise Poly real estate as the research object. First of all, from four dimensions of income and earnings analysis, EPS analysis, asset-liability analysis, future development trend judgment and Poly management strategy analysis to analyze Poly's current financial situation and future performance expectations. According to the analysis results, it is reasonable to select EVA three-stage valuation model. The sum of the discounted economic added value of each forecast year is estimated to be 12.92 yuan per share at the end of 2011. The deviation from the current market price is 28%, and the trend of recovery and the formation of the rising channel show that the valuation results are accurate. The subsequent sensitivity analysis also shows that the deviation of weighted average capital cost has a great influence on the intrinsic value, which indicates that the discount rate should be paid more attention to in the valuation model. Based on the deep mining of valuation results, this paper explains the historical background and reasonable explanation of undervalued stock price from three aspects: demand, supply and market expectation. Finally, the paper puts forward the value driving factor analysis based on EVA, and summarizes some suggestions on how to improve the enterprise value by Poly. This paper hopes to analyze the EVA model valuation example of Poly Real Estate, which can be used as a reference for the future research on the valuation of listed real estate companies, and more objective for the real estate companies. More effective daily business activities and decisions to provide reliable basis.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4

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本文編號：2264084