本文選題：物流地產 + 項目風險��； 參考：《延邊大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：物流業(yè)作為國民經濟的重要組成部分,其發(fā)展對經濟的增長非常重要,尤其進入21世紀以來,隨著現代物流業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,對高標準、專業(yè)化的物流設施的需求越來越大,為物流地產的興起和發(fā)展帶來了機遇,物流地產作為物流業(yè)的派生也被越來越多的投資者所關注。而長吉圖區(qū)域又是我國唯一一個由國家批準實施的沿邊開發(fā)開放區(qū)域,是中國內陸距離日本海最近的地區(qū),地處東北亞區(qū)域的地理幾何中心,是我國參與圖們江區(qū)域國際合作開發(fā)的核心地區(qū)和重要支撐,具有明顯的區(qū)位優(yōu)勢。隨著國家層面東北地區(qū)物流專項規(guī)劃前期研究工作的啟動,在建設一批物流中心和節(jié)點城市以及重點物流園區(qū)的推動下,物流地產成為了長吉圖區(qū)域開發(fā)中投資者關注的熱點。但是在國內物流地產快速發(fā)展投資熱情高漲的背后也存在著重復建設嚴重、空置率較高、土地出讓政策不明確、土地使用不透明等一系列項目風險問題。 本文在分析我國三大經濟圈內物流地產發(fā)展情況的基礎上,結合長吉圖區(qū)域發(fā)展的實際情況,提出了在長吉圖區(qū)域開展物流地產項目的必要性以及對長吉圖區(qū)域物流地產項目進行風險分析的必要性。文章通過分析長吉圖區(qū)域物流地產發(fā)展的優(yōu)勢及存在的問題,結合調研的實際情況,綜合提出了一些發(fā)展物流地產項目過程中可能會遇到的風險,然后從項目風險識別、項目風險評估、項目風險應對三個環(huán)節(jié)對長吉圖區(qū)域物流地產項目風險進行了分析。 本文在系統地闡述物流地產和項目風險基本理論的基礎上,基于項目生命周期理論對長吉圖區(qū)域開發(fā)中物流地產項目風險進行分析研究,包括項目風險識別、項目風險評估、項目風險應對三個環(huán)節(jié),并找出了23個項目風險因素,建立了長吉圖區(qū)域物流地產項目風險體系,并通過調查問卷的數據收集與統計整理,運用層次分析法和模糊綜合評價法確定各項目風險因素影響程度的大小及長吉圖區(qū)域物流地產項目的整體風險水平,最后針對主要項目風險因素提出應對策略,為擬在長吉圖區(qū)域開發(fā)建設物流地產項目的投資商在項目開發(fā)的過程中做出相應的科學決策提供參考,以保障項目開發(fā)預期利益的取得,為長吉圖區(qū)域內物流地產的健康有序發(fā)展提供科學參考依據,也為長吉圖區(qū)域內物流產業(yè)未來的發(fā)展做出一些有益探索。
[Abstract]:Logistics industry as an important part of national economy, its development is very important for economic growth, especially in the 21st century, with the rapid development of modern logistics industry, the demand for high standards and specialized logistics facilities is increasing. As a derivative of logistics industry, logistics real estate has been paid more and more attention to by more and more investors. The Changjitu region is the only frontier development and open area approved by the state in China. It is the closest area in China to the Sea of Japan and is located in the geographical and geometric center of the Northeast Asian region. It is the core area and important support of our country to participate in the international cooperation and development of Tumen River region. With the start of the research work in the early stage of the special logistics planning in Northeast China at the national level, logistics real estate has become the focus of investors' attention in the development of Changjitu region, under the promotion of building a number of logistics centers and node cities and key logistics parks. However, there are a series of project risk problems, such as heavy duplicate construction, high vacancy rate, unclear land transfer policy, opaque land use and so on, behind the rapid development and investment enthusiasm of domestic logistics real estate. On the basis of analyzing the development of logistics real estate in the three economic circles of our country, this paper combines the actual situation of the development of Changjitu area. The necessity of developing logistics real estate project in Changjitu area and the necessity of risk analysis of Changjitu regional logistics real estate project are put forward. By analyzing the advantages and problems of the development of logistics real estate in Changjitu region, combined with the actual situation of investigation, the paper puts forward some risks that may be encountered in the process of developing logistics real estate projects, and then identifies the risks from the project risk. Project risk assessment, project risk should be three links to Changjitu regional logistics real estate project risk analysis. Based on the basic theory of logistics real estate and project risk, this paper analyzes and studies the risk of logistics real estate project in Changjitu area development based on project life cycle theory, including project risk identification and project risk assessment. There are three links to deal with the project risk, and 23 risk factors of the project are found, and the risk system of the logistics real estate project in Changjitu region is established, and the data collection and statistical analysis of the questionnaire are carried out. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the influence degree of each project risk factor and the overall risk level of the logistics real estate project in Changjitu region. Finally, the countermeasures are put forward in view of the main project risk factors. To provide reference for the investors who intend to develop and build logistics real estate projects in Changjitu region to make corresponding scientific decisions in the process of project development, in order to ensure the expected benefits of project development. It provides a scientific reference for the healthy and orderly development of logistics real estate in Changjitu area, and also makes some beneficial exploration for the future development of logistics industry in Changjitu region.
【學位授予單位】：延邊大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F259.2

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