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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣和盧布匯率的決定與調(diào)整　出處：《歐亞經(jīng)濟》2016年01期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 盧布匯率 資本項目 中國金融改革 人民幣國際化

【摘要】：2014年以來,盧布匯率大幅貶值和劇烈波動引起國際社會廣泛關(guān)注。資本外逃、通貨膨脹、外匯儲備下降,俄羅斯經(jīng)濟面臨嚴峻考驗。深刻分析盧布貶值的原因:歐美制裁和油價下跌是導(dǎo)火索,經(jīng)濟增長乏力、結(jié)構(gòu)畸形是根本點,開放資本項目是助推器。關(guān)聯(lián)儲退出量化寬松政策,美元加息預(yù)期不斷增強,特別是中國大幅下調(diào)人民幣中間價后,新興市場國家和與中國有密切貿(mào)易關(guān)系的國家貨幣爭先恐后貶值,在經(jīng)濟全球化的今天,發(fā)展中國家選擇何種匯率制度、資本項目的開放程度等又成為當前研討的熱點問題。中國"十三五"規(guī)劃建議指出,有序?qū)崿F(xiàn)人民幣資本項目可自由兌換,推動人民幣進入特別提款權(quán),成為可自由兌換、可自由使用貨幣,可見,人民幣國際化進程已經(jīng)開始提速。本刊編輯部特邀請國內(nèi)專家學(xué)者參加討論,剖析盧布貶值的深層原因,比較中俄兩國在經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、國際儲備、本幣國際化、匯率制度等方面的差異,評估盧布匯率危機對中國金融改革總體進程的影響,探討中國如何在逐步推進匯率形成機制市場化的同時,有效防范匯率大幅波動產(chǎn)生的風險。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the rouble exchange rate has been greatly devalued and sharply fluctuated. The international community has paid close attention to the flight of capital, inflation and the decline of foreign exchange reserves. The Russian economy is facing a severe test. The reasons for the devaluation of the rouble are deeply analyzed: sanctions in Europe and the United States and the fall in oil prices are the trigger, economic growth is weak, and structural malformation is the root point. The opening of the capital account is the booster. Associated savings have pulled out of quantitative easing and expectations of a rise in US dollar interest rates have been rising, especially after China slashed the central rate of the renminbi. Emerging market countries and countries with close trade ties with China are scrambling to devalue their currencies. In today's economic globalization, developing countries choose which exchange rate regime to choose. The degree of capital account opening has become a hot issue at present. China's 13th Five-Year Plan proposal points out that the RMB capital account can be freely convertible in an orderly manner and that the renminbi will be promoted to enter special drawing rights (SDRs). Becoming freely convertible and freely using currencies, we can see that the process of internationalization of the renminbi has begun to accelerate. The editorial department of this journal specially invites domestic experts and scholars to participate in the discussion to analyze the underlying reasons for the devaluation of the rouble. By comparing the differences between China and Russia in economic growth, industrial structure, international reserves, internationalization of local currency, exchange rate regime, and so on, the impact of the rouble exchange rate crisis on the overall process of China's financial reform is evaluated. This paper discusses how China can effectively guard against the risk of large fluctuation of exchange rate while promoting the marketization of exchange rate formation mechanism step by step.
【作者單位】： 中國社會科學(xué)院俄羅斯東歐中亞研究所;
【分類號】：F832.6;F835.12
【正文快照】： 近年來,有關(guān)人民幣匯率和盧布匯率問題的討論可謂是甚囂塵上。單純從現(xiàn)象形態(tài)上看,這兩種貨幣有著截然不同的走勢:人民幣無論升值還是貶值,都表現(xiàn)出難得的穩(wěn)定特征;而盧布匯率則可以直接當作判斷國家經(jīng)濟形 勢的“晴雨表”,甚至是標示世界油價波動的“溫度計”,時時刻刻牽動

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本文編號：1416592