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  本文關鍵詞：基于“三元悖論”框架的中國貨幣政策獨立性計量研究　出處：《吉林大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 開放經(jīng)濟 三元悖論 MS-BVAR 政策組合 貨幣政策獨立性

【摘要】：當今世界,由于全球化浪潮的加劇,幾乎各個國家都處于開放經(jīng)濟的狀態(tài)。在開放經(jīng)濟下,對于宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)控,兼顧內(nèi)外兩種均衡是必不可少的,各國經(jīng)濟都需面對這兩種均衡的嚴峻考驗。對于中國來說,20世紀80年末之前我國曾是一個封閉的經(jīng)濟體。然而由于中國的改革開放,30年來我國開始越來越多的參與到世界經(jīng)濟中。我國經(jīng)濟開放程度有了極大的提高,中國的經(jīng)濟自由化體現(xiàn)在加強對外貿(mào)易、提高國際資本流入、高外債和外匯儲備積累經(jīng)常賬戶可兌換和資本賬戶可兌換的逐漸放開。而且近年來政府推進的“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略,更意味著我國正在構(gòu)建對外開放的新格局。隨著對外開放程度的不斷加強,我國內(nèi)外均衡的矛盾也日益凸顯,中國也在面臨越來越大的“三元悖論”難題。本文主要研究“三元悖論”框架下,在我國經(jīng)濟開放的過程中匯率制度改革、資本賬戶開放進程以及貨幣政策的獨立性三方面的經(jīng)濟政策,進而探究這期間政策搭配的變化,對充分享受經(jīng)濟全球化果實,協(xié)調(diào)好匯率政策和貨幣政策,既能使外匯管理起到防火墻的作用,降低國際金融動蕩的不良影響,又能對保持貨幣政策的獨立性和有效性有啟發(fā)性效果。本文選取的模型是MS-BVAR,本文的研究思路是首先從理論發(fā)展過程闡述“三元悖論”原理,借鑒前人構(gòu)建的“三元悖論”政策指標體系量化三個政策目標,通過回歸研究我國不同階段的政策組合搭配的特點,得出匯率制度穩(wěn)定性是我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的首要目標。實證部分具體是用MS-BVAR模型檢驗,脈沖響應函數(shù)進行分析,得出國內(nèi)利率對國外利率、國內(nèi)外因素的反應,進而探究我國不同階段的貨幣政策的獨立性,得出2010年以后我國貨幣政策獨立性有所提高,國內(nèi)利率的變動主要由于對國內(nèi)因素的政策選擇。最后結(jié)合“三元悖論”理論對匯率制度改革、資本賬戶開放進程提出相關的建議,認為資本賬戶開放進程應該謹慎有序進行,匯率制度應在保持穩(wěn)定的基礎上增強匯率彈性。
[Abstract]:In today's world, almost every country is in the state of open economy because of the intensification of globalization. In the open economy, it is necessary to take into account the internal and external balance for macroeconomic regulation and control. All countries have to face the severe test of these two kinds of equilibrium. For China, China was a closed economy before the end of the 20th century. However, due to China's reform and opening up. Over the past 30 years, China has begun to participate more and more in the world economy. China's economic openness has been greatly improved, and China's economic liberalization is reflected in strengthening foreign trade and increasing the inflow of international capital. The gradual liberalization of current account convertibility and capital account convertibility in the accumulation of foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves, and the "Belt and Road" strategy pursued by the Government in recent years. It means that China is building a new pattern of opening to the outside world. With the continuous strengthening of the degree of opening to the outside world, the equilibrium contradiction between China and the world is becoming increasingly prominent. China is also facing more and more difficult problems of "ternary paradox". This paper mainly studies the exchange rate system reform in the process of economic opening under the framework of "ternary paradox". Capital account opening process and the independence of monetary policy three aspects of economic policy, and then explore the changes in the policy mix during this period, to fully enjoy the fruits of economic globalization, to coordinate exchange rate policy and monetary policy. Foreign exchange management can not only play the role of firewall, reduce the adverse impact of international financial turmoil, but also to maintain the independence and effectiveness of monetary policy. The model chosen in this paper is MS-BVAR. The research idea of this paper is to expound the principle of "ternary paradox" from the process of theoretical development, and to quantify the three policy objectives of the "ternary paradox" policy index system constructed by predecessors. Through regression analysis of the characteristics of policy combinations in different stages in China, it is concluded that the stability of exchange rate regime is the primary goal of China's macro economy. The empirical part is tested with MS-BVAR model. The impulse response function is used to analyze the reaction of domestic interest rate to foreign interest rate and domestic and foreign factors, and then to explore the independence of monetary policy in different stages of our country. It is concluded that the independence of monetary policy has been improved since 2010, and the change of domestic interest rate is mainly due to the policy choice of domestic factors. Finally, the exchange rate system is reformed in combination with the theory of "ternary paradox". The paper suggests that the process of capital account opening should be carried out carefully and orderly, and the exchange rate regime should strengthen exchange rate elasticity on the basis of maintaining stability.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F822.0

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