重慶市商品住宅投資環(huán)境綜合評(píng)價(jià)與實(shí)證研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-23 13:36
【摘要】：我國(guó)房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)過2010年以來的一系列調(diào)控，房?jī)r(jià)上升的勢(shì)頭并未得到明顯抑制。進(jìn)入2012年，房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策穩(wěn)中趨緊，從中央到地方政府的各職能部門又一輪逐步展開對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的調(diào)控，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)出明顯的理性回歸態(tài)勢(shì)。同時(shí)，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)盈利模式遭遇挑戰(zhàn)，庫存壓力持續(xù)增大，資金鏈日趨緊張，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)亟待轉(zhuǎn)型，對(duì)商品住宅投資環(huán)境綜合評(píng)價(jià)已成為投資決策成敗的關(guān)鍵所在。作為西部地區(qū)唯一的直轄市，重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)投資、建設(shè)、銷售等各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)增長(zhǎng)速度均呈現(xiàn)出不同程度的放緩態(tài)勢(shì)。論文分析認(rèn)為該時(shí)期房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的特征主要有：宏觀政策偏向自主性和改善性需求，抑制投資投機(jī)性需求；房產(chǎn)稅政策試點(diǎn)推廣，保障房建設(shè)力度持續(xù)加大；房企以價(jià)換量刺激剛性需求，去庫存回籠資金加速；市場(chǎng)短期利好促進(jìn)樓市反彈，城鎮(zhèn)化長(zhǎng)期利好造成樓市剛需強(qiáng)勁。為此，本文對(duì)2007-2012年重慶市商品住宅投資環(huán)境進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析，根據(jù)主城北上策略選擇主城北部的渝北區(qū)作為實(shí)例，與主城其他區(qū)域作對(duì)比分析，建立評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)。 作為統(tǒng)籌城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展改革試驗(yàn)區(qū)，重慶市房?jī)r(jià)收入比相對(duì)比較合理，，樓市利好政策將多于其他城市。本文以房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)理論為基礎(chǔ)理論，從房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的角度綜合評(píng)價(jià)商品住宅投資環(huán)境的優(yōu)劣狀況。論文數(shù)據(jù)主要通過查詢《重慶市統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》（2008-2012）以及問卷調(diào)查法的方式獲取。論文將商品住宅投資環(huán)境分為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、社會(huì)人居環(huán)境、政策法律環(huán)境、基礎(chǔ)公用環(huán)境、自然地理環(huán)境以及市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境6大環(huán)境準(zhǔn)則，采用因素分析法得出31個(gè)影響因素，進(jìn)而采用二輪德爾菲法篩選出20個(gè)關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)，并借助AHP法建立商品住宅投資環(huán)境指標(biāo)體系和指標(biāo)權(quán)重分布；將AHP法和模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法結(jié)合起來構(gòu)建商品住宅投資環(huán)境模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型。本文邀請(qǐng)建設(shè)管理與房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的20位專業(yè)人士組成評(píng)價(jià)小組應(yīng)用模型進(jìn)行模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)，渝北區(qū)環(huán)境特質(zhì)可以認(rèn)定為：良好水平（II級(jí)水平），高于主城區(qū)平均水平，正處于穩(wěn)步發(fā)展階段（II級(jí)水平）過渡到相對(duì)成熟階段（Ⅰ級(jí)水平）的利好區(qū)間。論文提供重慶市商品住宅投資環(huán)境的對(duì)比研究分析，能夠幫助房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商理性認(rèn)知渝北區(qū)商品住宅投資環(huán)境的優(yōu)劣水平和未來的發(fā)展方向。
[Abstract]:After a series of regulation and control since 2010, the rising trend of house prices has not been significantly suppressed. In 2012, the real estate regulation and control policy is tightening steadily, and every functional department from the central government to the local government has gradually carried out the regulation and control of the real estate market, and the real estate market has shown an obvious rational return trend. At the same time, the real estate enterprises face the challenge of operating profit mode, the pressure of inventory increases continuously, the chain of funds becomes increasingly tight, the real estate industry needs to be transformed urgently. The comprehensive evaluation of the investment environment of commodity housing has become the key to the success or failure of investment decision. As the only municipality directly under the Central Government in the west Chongqing real estate market investment construction sales and other indicators of the growth rate has shown a different degree of slowdown. The main characteristics of the real estate market in this period are as follows: macro policy bias toward autonomy and improvement demand to curb investment speculative demand, property tax policy pilot promotion, indemnificatory apartment construction continued to increase; Housing companies exchange prices to stimulate rigid demand, go back to stock funds to accelerate; market short-term positive to promote a rebound in the property market, urbanization long-term good resulting in strong demand for the property market rigidity. Therefore, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the investment environment of commodity housing in Chongqing from 2007 to 2012, and selects Yubei District in the northern part of the main city as an example according to the strategy of going northward to the main city, and makes a comparative analysis with other regions in the main city, and establishes an evaluation model for comprehensive evaluation. As a pilot area of urban and rural development reform, the ratio of house price to income in Chongqing is relatively reasonable, and the good policy of property market will be more than that of other cities. Based on the theory of real estate market, this paper synthetically evaluates the investment environment of commercial housing from the angle of real estate developers. The data of this paper are obtained by querying Chongqing Statistical Yearbook (2008-2012) and questionnaire survey. In this paper, the investment environment of commercial housing is divided into macroeconomic environment, social living environment, policy and law environment, basic public environment, natural geographical environment and market competition environment. Using factor analysis method, 31 influencing factors were obtained, and then 20 key indexes were selected by two-round Delphi method, and the index system and index weight distribution of commodity housing investment environment were established by AHP method. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of commercial housing investment environment is constructed by combining AHP method with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. This paper invites 20 professionals in the field of construction management and real estate to make a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation by applying the model. The environmental characteristics of Yubei District can be regarded as good level (II level), which is higher than the average level of the main urban area. It is at the stage of steady development (II level) to relatively mature stage (grade I level). This paper provides a comparative study and analysis of the investment environment of commodity housing in Chongqing, which can help the real estate developers to understand rationally the advantages and disadvantages of the commercial housing investment environment in Yubei District and the future development direction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23
本文編號(hào)：2289416
[Abstract]:After a series of regulation and control since 2010, the rising trend of house prices has not been significantly suppressed. In 2012, the real estate regulation and control policy is tightening steadily, and every functional department from the central government to the local government has gradually carried out the regulation and control of the real estate market, and the real estate market has shown an obvious rational return trend. At the same time, the real estate enterprises face the challenge of operating profit mode, the pressure of inventory increases continuously, the chain of funds becomes increasingly tight, the real estate industry needs to be transformed urgently. The comprehensive evaluation of the investment environment of commodity housing has become the key to the success or failure of investment decision. As the only municipality directly under the Central Government in the west Chongqing real estate market investment construction sales and other indicators of the growth rate has shown a different degree of slowdown. The main characteristics of the real estate market in this period are as follows: macro policy bias toward autonomy and improvement demand to curb investment speculative demand, property tax policy pilot promotion, indemnificatory apartment construction continued to increase; Housing companies exchange prices to stimulate rigid demand, go back to stock funds to accelerate; market short-term positive to promote a rebound in the property market, urbanization long-term good resulting in strong demand for the property market rigidity. Therefore, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the investment environment of commodity housing in Chongqing from 2007 to 2012, and selects Yubei District in the northern part of the main city as an example according to the strategy of going northward to the main city, and makes a comparative analysis with other regions in the main city, and establishes an evaluation model for comprehensive evaluation. As a pilot area of urban and rural development reform, the ratio of house price to income in Chongqing is relatively reasonable, and the good policy of property market will be more than that of other cities. Based on the theory of real estate market, this paper synthetically evaluates the investment environment of commercial housing from the angle of real estate developers. The data of this paper are obtained by querying Chongqing Statistical Yearbook (2008-2012) and questionnaire survey. In this paper, the investment environment of commercial housing is divided into macroeconomic environment, social living environment, policy and law environment, basic public environment, natural geographical environment and market competition environment. Using factor analysis method, 31 influencing factors were obtained, and then 20 key indexes were selected by two-round Delphi method, and the index system and index weight distribution of commodity housing investment environment were established by AHP method. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of commercial housing investment environment is constructed by combining AHP method with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. This paper invites 20 professionals in the field of construction management and real estate to make a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation by applying the model. The environmental characteristics of Yubei District can be regarded as good level (II level), which is higher than the average level of the main urban area. It is at the stage of steady development (II level) to relatively mature stage (grade I level). This paper provides a comparative study and analysis of the investment environment of commodity housing in Chongqing, which can help the real estate developers to understand rationally the advantages and disadvantages of the commercial housing investment environment in Yubei District and the future development direction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23
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