基于行為金融學(xué)理論的普通住宅市場非理性泡沫研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-23 10:21
【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)是我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的主要推動力，其健康與否將直接影響我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。然而，隨著城市化進程的加快，城市土地稀缺性日益凸顯，全國各大城市房地產(chǎn)價格急劇上漲，房地產(chǎn)市場上出現(xiàn)了大量以獲取超額利益為目標的投機者，導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟泡沫可能出現(xiàn)。行為金融學(xué)從投資者的心理出發(fā)，研究投資者的非理性投資行為，為泡沫研究提供了理論支持。論文以行為金融學(xué)理論為基礎(chǔ)，以房地產(chǎn)的主要組成部分——普通住宅市場為對象，研究非理性泡沫。 本文首先對非理性泡沫進行定義，并闡述非理性泡沫理論基礎(chǔ)。在此基礎(chǔ)上，從普通住宅市場內(nèi)部出發(fā)分析普通住宅需求特性、土地供給特點，確定非理性泡沫產(chǎn)生的根源；從普通住宅市場外部出發(fā)分析政府調(diào)控政策的反復(fù)和頻繁性、資本市場的過度投機，，研究非理性泡沫形成的環(huán)境；從普通住宅市場投資者決策心理角度出發(fā)，分析其認知偏差和行為偏差對非理性泡沫形成的推動作用，從而揭示普通住宅泡沫形成的原因�；谝陨戏治�，本文第三部分考慮投資者決策心理和非理性行為，融合期望理論的價值函數(shù)及噪聲交易者模型，構(gòu)建普通住宅非理性泡沫模型，以確定普通住宅價格中非理性泡沫成分。然后，以西安市為例對普通住宅市場非理性泡沫進行了研究，研究在對普通住宅市場分析的基礎(chǔ)上，對市場進行單位根檢驗以確定其市場有效性，通過確定普通住宅市場非理性泡沫模型中的參數(shù)對西安市普通住宅市場非理性泡沫進行了評價。通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，西安市普通住宅市場非理性泡沫長期處于波動狀態(tài)，且非理性泡沫程度相對較低；市場中主要以理性投資者為主，噪聲交易者所占比例較少；市場中噪聲交易者所占的比例、認知偏差及行為偏差、噪音信息等對非理性泡沫的影響較大。最后本文依據(jù)論文研究結(jié)果，對政府制定調(diào)控政策提出了相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:Real estate industry is the main driving force of China's economic development, and its health will directly affect the economic development of our country. However, with the acceleration of urbanization, the scarcity of urban land has become increasingly prominent, the real estate prices in major cities in China have risen sharply, and a large number of speculators have appeared in the real estate market aiming at obtaining excess benefits. Leading to an economic bubble may appear. Behavioral finance, based on investors' psychology, studies investors' irrational investment behavior, which provides theoretical support for bubble research. Based on the theory of behavioral finance and the main component of real estate, the common housing market, this paper studies the irrational bubble. This paper first defines the irrational foam and expounds the theoretical basis of the irrational foam. On this basis, the characteristics of common housing demand and land supply are analyzed from the inside of ordinary housing market, and the origin of irrational bubble is determined, and the repetition and frequency of government regulation and control policies are analyzed from the outside of ordinary housing market. The paper studies the environment of the formation of irrational bubble from the excessive speculation in the capital market, analyzes its cognitive and behavioral bias on the formation of the irrational bubble from the perspective of the decision psychology of ordinary investors in the housing market, and analyzes the influence of the cognitive and behavioral deviations on the formation of the irrational bubble. Thus reveals the common housing bubble formation reason. Based on the above analysis, the third part of this paper, considering investors' decision-making psychology and irrational behavior, combines the value function of expectation theory and the noise trader model to construct the common housing irrational bubble model. To determine the price of ordinary housing non-rational bubble elements. Then, taking Xi'an as an example, this paper studies the irrational bubble in the ordinary housing market. On the basis of the analysis of the ordinary housing market, the unit root test of the market is carried out to determine the effectiveness of the market. This paper evaluates the irrational bubble of ordinary housing market in Xi'an by determining the parameters of the model. It is found that the irrational bubble in Xi'an residential market is fluctuating for a long time, and the degree of irrational bubble is relatively low, the market is dominated by rational investors, and the proportion of noise traders is relatively small. In the market, the proportion of noise traders, cognitive bias and behavioral bias, noise information have a great impact on the irrational bubble. Finally, according to the research results, the paper puts forward the corresponding suggestions to the government to formulate regulatory policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23
本文編號：2288946
[Abstract]:Real estate industry is the main driving force of China's economic development, and its health will directly affect the economic development of our country. However, with the acceleration of urbanization, the scarcity of urban land has become increasingly prominent, the real estate prices in major cities in China have risen sharply, and a large number of speculators have appeared in the real estate market aiming at obtaining excess benefits. Leading to an economic bubble may appear. Behavioral finance, based on investors' psychology, studies investors' irrational investment behavior, which provides theoretical support for bubble research. Based on the theory of behavioral finance and the main component of real estate, the common housing market, this paper studies the irrational bubble. This paper first defines the irrational foam and expounds the theoretical basis of the irrational foam. On this basis, the characteristics of common housing demand and land supply are analyzed from the inside of ordinary housing market, and the origin of irrational bubble is determined, and the repetition and frequency of government regulation and control policies are analyzed from the outside of ordinary housing market. The paper studies the environment of the formation of irrational bubble from the excessive speculation in the capital market, analyzes its cognitive and behavioral bias on the formation of the irrational bubble from the perspective of the decision psychology of ordinary investors in the housing market, and analyzes the influence of the cognitive and behavioral deviations on the formation of the irrational bubble. Thus reveals the common housing bubble formation reason. Based on the above analysis, the third part of this paper, considering investors' decision-making psychology and irrational behavior, combines the value function of expectation theory and the noise trader model to construct the common housing irrational bubble model. To determine the price of ordinary housing non-rational bubble elements. Then, taking Xi'an as an example, this paper studies the irrational bubble in the ordinary housing market. On the basis of the analysis of the ordinary housing market, the unit root test of the market is carried out to determine the effectiveness of the market. This paper evaluates the irrational bubble of ordinary housing market in Xi'an by determining the parameters of the model. It is found that the irrational bubble in Xi'an residential market is fluctuating for a long time, and the degree of irrational bubble is relatively low, the market is dominated by rational investors, and the proportion of noise traders is relatively small. In the market, the proportion of noise traders, cognitive bias and behavioral bias, noise information have a great impact on the irrational bubble. Finally, according to the research results, the paper puts forward the corresponding suggestions to the government to formulate regulatory policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23
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