發(fā)布時間：2018-10-22 19:57

【摘要】：自從1998年住房制度改革以來,我國結束了福利分房時代,進入自由購房階段,住房實現(xiàn)了商品化,我國居民可以根據(jù)自身需求自由選擇房屋居住。但是,隨著我國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)發(fā)展,人民生活水平逐漸提高,房價與地價也在持續(xù)上漲。尤其是2008年美國次貸危機以來,我國為了刺激經(jīng)濟,大力發(fā)展房地產業(yè),造成了房價與地價的高速增長,“買房難”現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)成為影響國計民生的大問題。最近幾年國家相繼出臺了一系列政策企圖遏制房價,但是收效甚微,所以我們有必要對房價與地價之間的關系進行研究,分析究竟是房價影響地價還是地價影響房價,還是它們受到其他因素影響,并提出相應的應對措施。弄清房價與地價以及相關因素之間的關系對于我國房地產業(yè)積極健康的發(fā)展具有重要的理論意義與實踐意義。 本文首先進行文獻綜述,將國外與國內專家學者的相關研究分類匯總。在借鑒前人研究成果的基礎上,除了房價與地價之外,還選取了土地購置面積、房屋竣工面積、房地產開發(fā)投資額、在崗職工平均工資、人均地區(qū)生產總值這五個因素進行研究,并建立模型。 在實證階段,本文首先選取全國房價與地價2004年第1季度至2011年第4季度的數(shù)據(jù)采用Granger因果檢驗對于二者之間的關系進行研究,得知房價與地價之間在短期內具有顯著的相關關系,并且房價對于地價的影響要大于地價對房價的影響；在長期內,房價對地價依然具有顯著影響,但是地價對房價的影響并不顯著。之后選取國內35個大中城市前述七個變量2002年至2011年十年的年度數(shù)據(jù)進行分析研究,得知房價與地價之間均存在顯著的相關關系,并且房價對地價的拉動作用要顯著強于地價對房價的拉動作用。而從東部、中部、西部這三部分相比較來看,東部房價對地價的帶動作用最強,西部次之,中部最差；與之相反,西部地價對房價的拉動作用最為顯著,中部次之,東部最弱。同時東部房價的影響因素眾多,但是只有房價這一個因素影響地價；西部城市房價只有地價一個影響因素,同時地價的影響因素也是只有房價以及房地產開發(fā)投資額。 本文最后提出了穩(wěn)定房地產價格的主要措施：一是完善房地產市場競爭機制,二是限制對東部地區(qū)的過度開發(fā)。完善房地產市場競爭機制需要降低房地產廠商進入門檻,提高市場透明度,完善土地“招拍掛”制度,發(fā)展二手房市場,完善相關法律法規(guī)。限制對東部城市的過度開發(fā)需要大力發(fā)展廉住房與經(jīng)濟適用房,調整住房供應結構,完善住房租賃市場,改變傳統(tǒng)落后觀念。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system in 1998, our country has put an end to the era of welfare housing division, entered the stage of free purchase, and realized the commercialization of housing. Chinese residents can freely choose their houses according to their own needs. However, with the sustained development of our economy, people's living standards are gradually improving, housing prices and land prices are also rising. Especially since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, in order to stimulate the economy and vigorously develop the real estate industry in China, resulting in the rapid growth of house prices and land prices, "difficult to buy a house" has become a major problem affecting the national economy and people's livelihood. In recent years, the state has successively introduced a series of policies to curb house prices, but there has been little effect. Therefore, it is necessary for us to study the relationship between house prices and land prices, and to analyze whether housing prices affect land prices or land prices. Or are they affected by other factors and put forward corresponding countermeasures. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the relationship between house price, land price and related factors for the positive and healthy development of China's real estate industry. In this paper, the literature review, foreign and domestic experts and scholars related to the classification and summary. On the basis of the previous research results, in addition to house prices and land prices, we also selected the land purchase area, the completed housing area, the real estate development investment, the average wage of the employed workers. The five factors of per capita regional GDP are studied, and a model is established. In the empirical stage, this paper firstly selects the data from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2011 to study the relationship between them by Granger causality test. It is known that there is a significant correlation between house price and land price in the short term, and the impact of house price on land price is greater than that of land price, and in the long run, housing price still has significant influence on land price. But the impact of land price on house prices is not significant. Then, the annual data of the above-mentioned seven variables in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2002 to 2011 are analyzed and studied, and it is found that there is a significant correlation between house prices and land prices. And the pulling effect of house price on land price is obviously stronger than that of land price on house price. Compared with the three parts of the east, the middle and the west, the price of house in the east has the strongest driving effect on the land price, followed by the west and the middle. On the contrary, the pulling effect of the land price in the west is the most significant, followed by the middle, and the weakest in the east. At the same time, there are many factors affecting the house price in the east, but only one factor affects the land price. In the western city, there is only one factor in the housing price, and the influence factor of the land price is only the house price and the investment in real estate development. Finally, the paper puts forward the main measures to stabilize the real estate price: first, to perfect the competition mechanism of the real estate market; second, to limit the over-exploitation of the eastern region. To perfect the competition mechanism of real estate market, it is necessary to lower the entry threshold of real estate manufacturers, improve the transparency of the market, perfect the system of land "recruitment, auction and hanging", develop the second-hand housing market, and perfect the relevant laws and regulations. To limit the over-development of eastern cities, we should develop cheap housing and comfortable housing, adjust the structure of housing supply, perfect the housing rental market, and change the traditional backward concept.
【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F301.4

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本文編號：2288156