發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-22 19:57

【摘要】：自從1998年住房制度改革以來(lái),我國(guó)結(jié)束了福利分房時(shí)代,進(jìn)入自由購(gòu)房階段,住房實(shí)現(xiàn)了商品化,我國(guó)居民可以根據(jù)自身需求自由選擇房屋居住。但是,隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)發(fā)展,人民生活水平逐漸提高,房?jī)r(jià)與地價(jià)也在持續(xù)上漲。尤其是2008年美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)以來(lái),我國(guó)為了刺激經(jīng)濟(jì),大力發(fā)展房地產(chǎn)業(yè),造成了房?jī)r(jià)與地價(jià)的高速增長(zhǎng),“買房難”現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)成為影響國(guó)計(jì)民生的大問(wèn)題。最近幾年國(guó)家相繼出臺(tái)了一系列政策企圖遏制房?jī)r(jià),但是收效甚微,所以我們有必要對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)與地價(jià)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究,分析究竟是房?jī)r(jià)影響地價(jià)還是地價(jià)影響房?jī)r(jià),還是它們受到其他因素影響,并提出相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施。弄清房?jī)r(jià)與地價(jià)以及相關(guān)因素之間的關(guān)系對(duì)于我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)積極健康的發(fā)展具有重要的理論意義與實(shí)踐意義。 本文首先進(jìn)行文獻(xiàn)綜述,將國(guó)外與國(guó)內(nèi)專家學(xué)者的相關(guān)研究分類匯總。在借鑒前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,除了房?jī)r(jià)與地價(jià)之外,還選取了土地購(gòu)置面積、房屋竣工面積、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額、在崗職工平均工資、人均地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值這五個(gè)因素進(jìn)行研究,并建立模型。 在實(shí)證階段,本文首先選取全國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)與地價(jià)2004年第1季度至2011年第4季度的數(shù)據(jù)采用Granger因果檢驗(yàn)對(duì)于二者之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究,得知房?jī)r(jià)與地價(jià)之間在短期內(nèi)具有顯著的相關(guān)關(guān)系,并且房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)于地價(jià)的影響要大于地價(jià)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的影響；在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)地價(jià)依然具有顯著影響,但是地價(jià)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的影響并不顯著。之后選取國(guó)內(nèi)35個(gè)大中城市前述七個(gè)變量2002年至2011年十年的年度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析研究,得知房?jī)r(jià)與地價(jià)之間均存在顯著的相關(guān)關(guān)系,并且房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)地價(jià)的拉動(dòng)作用要顯著強(qiáng)于地價(jià)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的拉動(dòng)作用。而從東部、中部、西部這三部分相比較來(lái)看,東部房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)地價(jià)的帶動(dòng)作用最強(qiáng),西部次之,中部最差；與之相反,西部地價(jià)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的拉動(dòng)作用最為顯著,中部次之,東部最弱。同時(shí)東部房?jī)r(jià)的影響因素眾多,但是只有房?jī)r(jià)這一個(gè)因素影響地價(jià)；西部城市房?jī)r(jià)只有地價(jià)一個(gè)影響因素,同時(shí)地價(jià)的影響因素也是只有房?jī)r(jià)以及房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額。 本文最后提出了穩(wěn)定房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的主要措施：一是完善房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)機(jī)制,二是限制對(duì)東部地區(qū)的過(guò)度開發(fā)。完善房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)機(jī)制需要降低房地產(chǎn)廠商進(jìn)入門檻,提高市場(chǎng)透明度,完善土地“招拍掛”制度,發(fā)展二手房市場(chǎng),完善相關(guān)法律法規(guī)。限制對(duì)東部城市的過(guò)度開發(fā)需要大力發(fā)展廉住房與經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房,調(diào)整住房供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu),完善住房租賃市場(chǎng),改變傳統(tǒng)落后觀念。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system in 1998, our country has put an end to the era of welfare housing division, entered the stage of free purchase, and realized the commercialization of housing. Chinese residents can freely choose their houses according to their own needs. However, with the sustained development of our economy, people's living standards are gradually improving, housing prices and land prices are also rising. Especially since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, in order to stimulate the economy and vigorously develop the real estate industry in China, resulting in the rapid growth of house prices and land prices, "difficult to buy a house" has become a major problem affecting the national economy and people's livelihood. In recent years, the state has successively introduced a series of policies to curb house prices, but there has been little effect. Therefore, it is necessary for us to study the relationship between house prices and land prices, and to analyze whether housing prices affect land prices or land prices. Or are they affected by other factors and put forward corresponding countermeasures. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the relationship between house price, land price and related factors for the positive and healthy development of China's real estate industry. In this paper, the literature review, foreign and domestic experts and scholars related to the classification and summary. On the basis of the previous research results, in addition to house prices and land prices, we also selected the land purchase area, the completed housing area, the real estate development investment, the average wage of the employed workers. The five factors of per capita regional GDP are studied, and a model is established. In the empirical stage, this paper firstly selects the data from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2011 to study the relationship between them by Granger causality test. It is known that there is a significant correlation between house price and land price in the short term, and the impact of house price on land price is greater than that of land price, and in the long run, housing price still has significant influence on land price. But the impact of land price on house prices is not significant. Then, the annual data of the above-mentioned seven variables in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2002 to 2011 are analyzed and studied, and it is found that there is a significant correlation between house prices and land prices. And the pulling effect of house price on land price is obviously stronger than that of land price on house price. Compared with the three parts of the east, the middle and the west, the price of house in the east has the strongest driving effect on the land price, followed by the west and the middle. On the contrary, the pulling effect of the land price in the west is the most significant, followed by the middle, and the weakest in the east. At the same time, there are many factors affecting the house price in the east, but only one factor affects the land price. In the western city, there is only one factor in the housing price, and the influence factor of the land price is only the house price and the investment in real estate development. Finally, the paper puts forward the main measures to stabilize the real estate price: first, to perfect the competition mechanism of the real estate market; second, to limit the over-exploitation of the eastern region. To perfect the competition mechanism of real estate market, it is necessary to lower the entry threshold of real estate manufacturers, improve the transparency of the market, perfect the system of land "recruitment, auction and hanging", develop the second-hand housing market, and perfect the relevant laws and regulations. To limit the over-development of eastern cities, we should develop cheap housing and comfortable housing, adjust the structure of housing supply, perfect the housing rental market, and change the traditional backward concept.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F301.4

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