發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-23 17:18

【摘要】：據(jù)WHO不完全統(tǒng)計(jì),全球每年近70萬人死于蚊媒傳播疾病.以登革熱為例,全球每年超過36億人受登革熱威脅,其中大約有1億人感染該疾病.廣州已成為登革熱流行區(qū)域,特別是2014年登革熱的大規(guī)模爆發(fā)給該地區(qū)人們帶來了極大困擾,使得控蚊滅蚊在該地區(qū)儼然成為一項(xiàng)全民活動(dòng).傳統(tǒng)控蚊方法是噴射殺蟲劑來滅蚊.該方法不但嚴(yán)重污染環(huán)境,而且增強(qiáng)蚊子的耐藥性,不能實(shí)現(xiàn)根除蚊子的成效.自從2005年奚志勇成功地在伊蚊中建立穩(wěn)定的Wolbachia株,一種新型的、安全有效的生物方法是通過釋放攜帶Wolbachiax細(xì)菌并能阻斷蚊媒疾病傳播的蚊子來壓制或者替換野生蚊群.Wolbachia以較高的母體傳播率將這種能夠抵抗病毒復(fù)制的共生菌傳遞給后代,而母體傳播率越高,越有利于Wolbachia在蚊群中的傳播.然而,母體傳播遺漏率在果蠅(Drosophila simulans)中幾乎普遍存在,并且,最新的研究表明,在傳播登革熱的埃及伊蚊、傳播瘧疾的斯氏按蚊中母體傳播遺漏率不僅同樣存在,而且遺漏率相比果蠅中的遺漏率要大得多.基于此,本文建立數(shù)學(xué)模型分析母體傳播遺漏率如何影響Wolbachia在蚊群中的動(dòng)力學(xué)行為,模型分析結(jié)果對(duì)2013年越南釋放工作的失敗作出了一定的解釋.本文共分為三章.第一章介紹了蚊媒傳播疾病的背景,Wolbachia在蚊群中動(dòng)力學(xué)行為的研究現(xiàn)狀和本文的主要工作.第二章首先對(duì)系統(tǒng)的解不變性和有界性給出了證明,然后推導(dǎo)出了全文分析通用的兩個(gè)恒等式,接著依據(jù)模型參數(shù)分為九種情形,對(duì)每種情形給出了系統(tǒng)的全局性分析.理論結(jié)果表明,相比于完全母體傳播,不完全母體傳播可致系統(tǒng)呈現(xiàn)單態(tài),雙穩(wěn)態(tài)和多態(tài);第三章利用數(shù)值模擬討論母體傳播遺漏對(duì)制定蚊子釋放策略的影響.不完全母體傳播給系統(tǒng)帶來了復(fù)雜的動(dòng)力學(xué)行為,隨著母體傳播遺漏的不斷增加,系統(tǒng)依次表現(xiàn)出單態(tài),多態(tài)或雙穩(wěn)態(tài)的動(dòng)力學(xué)行為.對(duì)三個(gè)具有不同母體傳播率的模型,用數(shù)值模擬方法來估計(jì)不同母體傳播遺漏的閾值曲線,進(jìn)而揭示了不同母體傳播遺漏對(duì)Wolbachia傳播的影響.
[Abstract]:According to WHO incomplete statistics, nearly 700000 people worldwide die of mosquito-borne diseases every year. Take dengue fever, which threatens more than 3.6 billion people a year, about 100 million of whom are infected. Guangzhou has become an endemic area for dengue fever, especially since the massive outbreak of dengue fever in 2014 has greatly troubled people in the region, making mosquito control and mosquito control a national activity in the region. The traditional method of mosquito control is to spray insecticides against mosquitoes. This method not only pollutes the environment seriously, but also increases mosquito resistance. Since Xi Zhiyong succeeded in establishing a stable Wolbachia strain in Aedes in2005, a new type, A safe and effective biological method is to suppress or replace wild mosquito populations by releasing mosquitoes that carry Wolbachiax bacteria and can block the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Wolbachia transmits the symbiotic bacteria resistant to viral replication to future generations at a higher maternal transmission rate. The higher the maternal transmission rate, the more favorable the transmission of Wolbachia in mosquito population. However, maternal transmission omission rates are almost universal in Drosophila (Drosophila simulans), and new research shows that maternal transmission omission rates are not just the same in Aedes aegypti, which spreads dengue fever, but also in the malaria transmission Anopheles stephensi. And the omission rate was much larger than in the fruit fly. Based on this, a mathematical model is established to analyze how the rate of maternal transmission omission affects the dynamic behavior of Wolbachia in mosquito populations. The results of the model analysis explain the failure of Vietnam's release work in 2013. This paper is divided into three chapters. The first chapter introduces the background of mosquito-borne diseases, the research status of Wolbachia dynamics in mosquito populations and the main work of this paper. In chapter 2, we first prove the invariance and boundedness of the solution of the system, then we derive two identities of the full text analysis, then we divide them into nine cases according to the parameters of the model, and give the global analysis of the system in each case. The theoretical results show that the incomplete mother propagation can result in monomorphic, bistable and polymorphic systems compared with complete mother propagation. In chapter 3, the effects of maternal transmission omissions on the formulation of mosquito release strategies are discussed by numerical simulation. Incomplete parent propagation brings complex dynamic behavior to the system. With the increasing of omissions, the system exhibits monomorphic, polymorphic or bistable dynamic behavior in turn. For three models with different mother propagation rates, the threshold curves of different mother propagation omissions are estimated by numerical simulation method, and the effects of different mother propagation omissions on Wolbachia propagation are revealed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：O175

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