【摘要】：在數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)中，貝葉斯學(xué)派已發(fā)展為一個(gè)有影響的學(xué)派．時(shí)至今日，其影響日益擴(kuò)大．本文通過對(duì)相關(guān)典籍的研讀，采用史料分析法．比較研究法．在前人已有工作的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)貝葉斯理論進(jìn)行了較為詳細(xì)的考證和研究．主要工作如下： 一、詳細(xì)考證了貝葉斯的研究工作，在釋讀貝葉斯的奠基性原文基礎(chǔ)上，重點(diǎn)分析了貝葉斯如何提出貝葉斯理論，，貝葉斯公式、貝葉斯假設(shè)，以及《機(jī)會(huì)學(xué)說中一個(gè)問題的解》的開創(chuàng)性意義． 二、對(duì)拉普拉斯的一篇文章《論事件原因存在的概率》進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)研究，拉普拉斯獨(dú)立的在這篇文章中提出了與貝葉斯理論一致的＂不充分推理原則＂．本論文通過對(duì)貝葉斯和拉普拉斯的方法進(jìn)行比較，揭示了這兩種方法的區(qū)別． 三、介紹了20世紀(jì)貝葉斯理論的確認(rèn)，以及后續(xù)的發(fā)展、應(yīng)用．對(duì)貝葉斯理論從產(chǎn)生到發(fā)展的歷史脈絡(luò)進(jìn)行了梳理． 四、對(duì)貝葉斯學(xué)派和經(jīng)典學(xué)派在概率的解釋、統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷中信息選擇和隨機(jī)變量的認(rèn)識(shí)三方面的差異進(jìn)行了比較．分析了貝葉斯學(xué)派和經(jīng)典學(xué)派的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)．
[Abstract]:In mathematical statistics, Bayesian school has developed into an influential school. Today, the influence of Bayesian school is increasing. Through the study of relevant books and books, this paper adopts the method of historical data analysis and comparative research. On the basis of the previous work, The main work of this paper is as follows: first, the research work of Bayes is studied in detail, which is based on the interpretation of the basic text of Bayes. The significance of how Bayes put forward Bayesian theory, Bayesian formula, Bayesian hypothesis and the solution of a problem in the theory of opportunity is analyzed. A detailed study of Laplace's article on the probability of the cause of events, Laplacas has put forward the "inadequate reasoning principle" which is consistent with Bayesian theory in this paper. By comparing Bayesian and Laplace's methods, this paper reveals the differences between these two methods. This paper introduces the confirmation of Bayesian theory in the 20th century, and its subsequent development and application. It combs the historical context of Bayesian theory from its origin to development. Fourthly, it explains the probability of Bayesian school and classical school. The differences between information selection and cognition of random variables in statistical inference are compared, and the advantages and disadvantages of Bayesian school and classical school are analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：O212.8

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