【摘要】：現(xiàn)代化是一個動態(tài)的發(fā)展過程，它既是人類不斷發(fā)展的文明標志，同時也是未來發(fā)展的趨勢。交通運輸是國民經(jīng)濟的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè)，在社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展中扮演著非常重要的角色。道路客運作為交通運輸綜合體系的子系統(tǒng)，其實現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化對交通運輸業(yè)，甚至是區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，起著重要的引導(dǎo)和支持作用。實現(xiàn)區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟的現(xiàn)代化，需要立足于社會經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展水平，對道路客運現(xiàn)代化的進程進行科學(xué)、系統(tǒng)、完整地評價，從而有效地把握道路客運現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展進程，為識別道路客運現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵性問題，制定實現(xiàn)道路客運現(xiàn)代化的對策措施提供科學(xué)有力的依據(jù)。因此，能否正確理解和把握道路客運現(xiàn)代化的內(nèi)涵特征，進而根據(jù)各個地區(qū)的道路客運發(fā)展水平，正確評價道路客運現(xiàn)代化的進程，選擇道路客運現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略對策是一個具有理論和現(xiàn)實意義的課題。所以，建立一套與區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)代化相適應(yīng)的道路客運現(xiàn)代化評價指標體系，選擇科學(xué)合理的評價指標和評價方法，對道路客運發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進行客觀真實的評價，成為推進道路客運現(xiàn)代化進程的迫切要求。 本文對現(xiàn)代化和道路客運現(xiàn)代化的基本理論進行探討，闡述了對現(xiàn)代化的認識，明確了道路客運現(xiàn)代化的內(nèi)涵及特征，提出了道路客運現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展的基本要求；在此基礎(chǔ)上，從產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟的角度出發(fā)，確定了以系統(tǒng)要素和產(chǎn)業(yè)運行二維結(jié)構(gòu)為主體，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、運營系統(tǒng)、輔助支持和市場結(jié)構(gòu)、市場行為、市場績效六大模塊為子系統(tǒng)的評價指標體系總體架構(gòu)，參照相關(guān)研究，得出了指標的測算方法和現(xiàn)代化參考值，通過調(diào)查所得數(shù)據(jù)，對寧波實際情況進行了分析，確定了其現(xiàn)代化的現(xiàn)狀值和目標值；確定了產(chǎn)業(yè)運行維和系統(tǒng)要素維的子系統(tǒng)發(fā)展水平評價、系統(tǒng)要素維與產(chǎn)業(yè)運行維的關(guān)系評價、系統(tǒng)要素維度各子系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)性評價、產(chǎn)業(yè)運行維的產(chǎn)業(yè)組織評價和道路客運現(xiàn)代化綜合評價的評價內(nèi)容，通過對各類評價方法進行比較分析，并結(jié)合研究實際，分別采用主成分分析法、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度判斷法、SCP分析范式、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析和層次分析法對以上內(nèi)容進行評價；以寧波市為例，對其道路客運現(xiàn)代化水平進行了綜合評價，并對評價結(jié)果進行了分析。研究表明：道路客運現(xiàn)代化評價指標體系及評價方法能夠準確評價寧波道路客運現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展水平及各系統(tǒng)相互作用機制，具有理論科學(xué)性和實踐應(yīng)用性，對各地道路客運現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略對策制定和實施提供參考和借鑒。
[Abstract]:Modernization is a dynamic development process. It is not only the symbol of human civilization, but also the trend of future development. Transportation is the basic industry of national economy and plays a very important role in the development of social economy. As a subsystem of the comprehensive system of transportation, the modernization of road passenger transport plays an important role in guiding and supporting the development of transportation industry and even regional social economy. To realize the modernization of regional social economy, we should base ourselves on the level of the development of social and economic modernization, scientifically, systematically and completely evaluate the process of road passenger transport modernization, so as to effectively grasp the development process of road passenger transport modernization. In order to identify the key problems in the development of road passenger transport modernization and formulate countermeasures to realize the modernization of road passenger transport, the scientific and effective basis is provided. Therefore, can we correctly understand and grasp the connotation characteristics of road passenger transport modernization, and then correctly evaluate the road passenger transport modernization process according to the development level of road passenger transport in various regions? It is of theoretical and practical significance to choose the strategic countermeasures for the development of road passenger transport modernization. Therefore, establish a set of evaluation index system of road passenger transport modernization, choose scientific and reasonable evaluation index and evaluation method, carry on objective and real evaluation to the road passenger transport development condition. It has become an urgent requirement to promote the modernization of road passenger transport. This paper probes into the basic theories of modernization and road passenger transport modernization, expounds the understanding of modernization, clarifies the connotation and characteristics of road passenger transport modernization, and puts forward the basic requirements for the development of road passenger transport modernization. From the angle of industrial economy, it is determined that the system elements and the two-dimensional structure of industrial operation are the main body, the infrastructure, the operation system, the auxiliary support and market structure, and the market behavior. The six modules of market performance are the overall framework of the evaluation index system of the subsystem. Referring to the relevant research, the measuring method and the modern reference value of the index are obtained, and the actual situation of Ningbo is analyzed through the data obtained from the investigation. The status quo and target value of modernization, the evaluation of subsystem development level of industrial operation dimension and system element dimension, the relationship between system element dimension and industry operation dimension, the coordination evaluation of each subsystem of system element dimension are determined. The evaluation contents of industrial organization evaluation and road passenger transport modernization comprehensive evaluation of industrial operation dimension are compared and analyzed through various evaluation methods, and combined with the research practice, principal component analysis method is used respectively. The method of judging the degree of coordinated development is characterized by SCP analysis paradigm, grey relational analysis and analytic hierarchy process, taking Ningbo as an example, the modernization level of road passenger transport is comprehensively evaluated, and the evaluation results are analyzed. The research shows that the evaluation index system and evaluation method of road passenger transport modernization can accurately evaluate the development level of Ningbo road passenger transport modernization and the interaction mechanism of various systems, which is scientific in theory and applicable in practice. It provides reference and reference for the development strategy of road passenger transport modernization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U492.4

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