本文選題：水上交通復(fù)雜度 + 聚類分析��； 參考：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展，我國(guó)水路貨運(yùn)量和貨物周轉(zhuǎn)量持續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，水上交通日趨繁榮。然而，水上交通流密集化、多樣化和船舶大型化、高速化的發(fā)展，使得水域通航環(huán)境日趨復(fù)雜，船舶安全航行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不斷增加，水上交通管理難度進(jìn)一步增大。為了保障船舶通航安全，科學(xué)地認(rèn)識(shí)水上交通流迫在眉睫。 水上交通流理論是認(rèn)識(shí)水上交通、指導(dǎo)水上交通管理的基礎(chǔ)理論。復(fù)雜性研究是交通流領(lǐng)域近年來(lái)研究的熱點(diǎn)和趨勢(shì)，但目前在水上交通流領(lǐng)域，對(duì)交通流的復(fù)雜性和非線性等特征的研究還相對(duì)較少。而在水上交通快速發(fā)展的背景下，交通流的非線性和不確定性日益明顯。因此，以復(fù)雜的視角重新認(rèn)識(shí)水上交通流，深入研究水上交通流非線性和復(fù)雜性尤為必要。 論文以水上交通流系統(tǒng)為研究對(duì)象，分析了水上交通流系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性，論證了水上交通流系統(tǒng)是一個(gè)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)，并給出了水上交通流的認(rèn)知復(fù)雜度和本質(zhì)復(fù)雜度的定義。結(jié)合水上交通流復(fù)雜度的定義，分析了水上交通流的認(rèn)知復(fù)雜性和本質(zhì)復(fù)雜性，從不同的視角分別建立了水上交通流宏觀復(fù)雜度模型（認(rèn)知復(fù)雜度模型）和水上交通流微觀復(fù)雜度模型（本質(zhì)復(fù)雜度模型），通過(guò)模擬交通流驗(yàn)證了復(fù)雜度模型的有效性。本論文的主要成果可以概括為： 一、論文通過(guò)分析水上交通流系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜現(xiàn)象，從認(rèn)知論和本質(zhì)論兩個(gè)角度出發(fā)，分析了水上交通流系統(tǒng)的認(rèn)知復(fù)雜性和本質(zhì)復(fù)雜性，并論證了交通流系統(tǒng)是一個(gè)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)，提出了水上交通流認(rèn)知復(fù)雜度的定義和本質(zhì)復(fù)雜度的定義。通過(guò)本質(zhì)復(fù)雜度與碰撞危險(xiǎn)度（SCR）概念的對(duì)比分析，得到：本質(zhì)復(fù)雜度概念包含了碰撞危險(xiǎn)度的概念；通過(guò)與系統(tǒng)安全概念的對(duì)比分析，得到：無(wú)論是認(rèn)知復(fù)雜度還是本質(zhì)復(fù)雜度都是一種對(duì)水上交通流狀態(tài)描述的指標(biāo)，其目的是保障水上交通流系統(tǒng)的安全。 二、水上交通流宏觀復(fù)雜度模型 論文以水上宏觀交通流為研究對(duì)象，根據(jù)水上交通流認(rèn)知復(fù)雜度的定義，構(gòu)建了交通管理者視角下的水上交通流宏觀復(fù)雜度模型。提出了水上交通流宏觀復(fù)雜度計(jì)算的六個(gè)步驟： （1）運(yùn)用聚類分析法，將運(yùn)動(dòng)特征相似、相對(duì)位置較近的若干船舶視為一個(gè)交通簇；（2）根據(jù)交通流的歷史數(shù)據(jù)，建立交通流歷史速度場(chǎng)；（3）計(jì)算交通簇內(nèi)，交通簇的聚集復(fù)雜度；（4）計(jì)算由于交通簇速度異常，引起的速度特征復(fù)雜度；（5）計(jì)算由于交通簇位置偏離航道，，引起的密度特征復(fù)雜度；（6）以復(fù)雜度地圖的形式展示水上交通流復(fù)雜度的空間分布。 通過(guò)模擬交通流的驗(yàn)證表明，水上交通流宏觀復(fù)雜度模型能夠反映出區(qū)域交通流的認(rèn)知難度的不同，并能用于識(shí)別區(qū)域交通流中的異常行為。 三、水上交通流微觀復(fù)雜度模型 論文以船舶的避碰行為為研究對(duì)象，根據(jù)水上交通流本質(zhì)復(fù)雜度的定義，建立了在本船視角下的微觀復(fù)雜度模型，用于衡量在避碰的不同階段，船舶之間相互影響的程度。 （1）沖突復(fù)雜度模型，是在沖突階段（相對(duì)距離大于1海里）衡量船舶之間相互影響的模型；它以相對(duì)距離、最小會(huì)遇距離（DCPA）和最小會(huì)遇時(shí)間（TCPA）為主要指標(biāo)。通過(guò)多組實(shí)驗(yàn)表明，沖突復(fù)雜度模型不僅能夠更好地為本船描述周圍的交通態(tài)勢(shì)，還能用于為尋找本船的避碰路徑。 （2）碰撞解脫模型，是在碰撞解脫階段（相對(duì)距離小于1海里）衡量?jī)纱g的相互影響；它通過(guò)考慮船舶的操縱性和避碰策略，構(gòu)造出船舶危險(xiǎn)區(qū)，根據(jù)船舶危險(xiǎn)區(qū)重疊的比例表征船舶之間的相互影響。
[Abstract]:In recent years , with the rapid development of economic and trade , our country waterway freight volume and cargo turnover continue to grow steadily , the water traffic is becoming more prosperous . However , the water traffic flow is more and more complex , the risk of ship safety sailing is increasing , the difficulty of water traffic management is increased further . In order to guarantee the ship navigation safety , it is urgent to know the water traffic flow scientifically .

Water traffic flow theory is the basic theory to recognize water traffic and guide water traffic management . The complexity research is the hot spot and trend of traffic flow field in recent years . However , in the background of the rapid development of water traffic , the nonlinearity and uncertainty of traffic flow are more and more obvious . Therefore , it is especially necessary to understand the water traffic flow in a complex angle of view , and to study the nonlinear and complexity of traffic flow in water .

Based on the water traffic flow system , this paper analyzes the complexity of the water traffic flow system , demonstrates that the water traffic flow system is a complex system , and gives the definition of the cognitive complexity and the essential complexity of the water traffic flow . Based on the definition of the complexity of the water traffic flow , the paper analyzes the cognitive complexity and the essence complexity of the water traffic flow , and establishes the macroscopic complexity model ( cognitive complexity model ) and the water traffic flow microscopic complexity model ( essence complexity model ) of the water traffic flow from different perspectives . The main results of this paper can be summarized as follows :

Firstly , through analyzing the complex phenomena of the water traffic flow system , the cognitive complexity and the essence complexity of the water traffic flow system are analyzed from two angles of cognitive theory and theory of essence . The definition of the cognitive complexity and the definition of the essential complexity of the traffic flow system are presented .
By contrast analysis with the concept of system security , it is found that both the cognitive complexity and the essential complexity are an index to describe the state of the water traffic flow , the purpose of which is to guarantee the safety of the water traffic flow system .

II . Macro Complexity Model of Water Traffic Flow

Based on the definition of water traffic flow ' s cognitive complexity , the paper constructs the macroscopic complexity model of water traffic flow under the view of traffic manager based on the definition of water traffic flow cognitive complexity . Six steps are put forward :

( 1 ) Using cluster analysis method , the moving characters are similar , and some ships with relatively close position are regarded as a traffic cluster ;
( 2 ) establishing a traffic flow historical speed field according to historical data of the traffic flow ;
( 3 ) calculating the aggregation complexity of the traffic cluster in the traffic cluster ;
( 4 ) calculating speed characteristic complexity caused by abnormal traffic cluster velocity ;
( 5 ) calculating the density characteristic complexity caused by the deviation of the position of the traffic cluster from the channel ;
and ( 6 ) displaying the spatial distribution of the complexity of the water traffic flow in the form of a complexity map .

The simulation of the simulated traffic flow shows that the macroscopic complexity model of the water traffic flow can reflect the different cognitive difficulty of the regional traffic flow and can be used to identify the abnormal behavior in the regional traffic flow .

3 . Micro - complexity model of water traffic flow

Based on the definition of the essential complexity of the water traffic flow , the paper establishes a microscopic complexity model under the view of the ship , which is used to measure the degree of mutual influence between ships in different stages of collision avoidance .

( 1 ) Conflict complexity model is a model to measure the interaction between ships during the conflict phase ( relative distance is more than 1 nautical mile ) ;
Based on the relative distance , the minimum meeting distance ( DCPA ) and the minimum meeting time ( TCPA ) , it is shown that the conflict complexity model not only can better describe the traffic situation around the ship , but also can be used to find the collision avoidance path of the ship .

( 2 ) The collision detachment model is the measure of the interaction between the two vessels during the collision detachment stage ( relative distance less than 1 nautical mile ) ;
The ship ' s maneuverability and collision avoidance strategy are taken into consideration , and the ship ' s dangerous area is constructed , and the interaction between ships is characterized according to the proportion of the ship ' s dangerous areas .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U692

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