發(fā)布時間：2018-01-02 03:36

  本文關鍵詞：出租車運營模式與運力規(guī)模優(yōu)化研究　出處：《蘭州交通大學》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 出租車 運營模式 運力規(guī)模 BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)路

【摘要】：近年來,國內出租車交通得到快速發(fā)展,已經(jīng)覆蓋所有城市及較發(fā)達鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn),成為群眾出行的重要交通方式。2008年大部門體制改革之后,運輸部門從政策、標準等不同方面著手,出臺了多項出租車相關的規(guī)章制度,加強對出租車行業(yè)的監(jiān)管,以期提高大眾的滿意度,促進行業(yè)的有序發(fā)展。但在出租車發(fā)展歷程中因發(fā)展思路不一致、政策措施不明確,導致出租車行業(yè)存在一些突出的問題,制約著整個行業(yè)的有序發(fā)展。其中出租車以怎樣的運營模式經(jīng)營、投放多大的運力規(guī)模都對行業(yè)的有序發(fā)展有著很大的影響。因此有必要對出租車的運營管理模式和運力規(guī)模的投放進行分析,尋找規(guī)律,探索方向,形成適合我國國情的出租車管理思路。首先,文中對出租車的服務特性做了詳細的描述,并分析了其在城市運輸中所發(fā)揮的職能,從而確立出租車行業(yè)未來的發(fā)展方向,并在分析出租車市場上表現(xiàn)出來的各種不合理現(xiàn)象的基礎上,找到阻礙出租車交通有序發(fā)展的原因。其次,由于運營模式的選取,關系到整個出租車行業(yè)的發(fā)展方向,影響著出租車的服務質量和政府的管理效率,同時也涉及公司和司機之間的切身利益,因此,文中探討了我國現(xiàn)有的幾種出租車運營模式,在分析其影響因素的基礎上,從不同利益方的立場出發(fā)對各種運營模式的優(yōu)劣做出比較,并選取適當?shù)脑u價指標(管理要求、產(chǎn)權關系、單車運營成本、事故承擔能力和乘客滿意度等),構建不同運營模式應用于特定都市條件下的優(yōu)劣程度評定模型,為運輸部門選取合理有效的模式提供理論依據(jù)。再次,在現(xiàn)階段我國的國情條件下,人口密度很大、道路資源緊缺、環(huán)境承載力較弱,運力規(guī)模的投放必須由運管部門進行干預。因此,文中將制約出租車運力規(guī)模的各個因素進行綜合考慮,從中挖掘出起決定作用的因子,了解其對運力規(guī)模的影響機理,并在考慮不同預測方法優(yōu)劣度的基礎上,以因子分析法的原理結合BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡理論,構建出租車運力規(guī)模預測模型。最后,以蘭州市為分析對象,在考慮因素可量化和數(shù)據(jù)易收集的基礎上,確定適當數(shù)目的影響因素并從相關部門收集數(shù)據(jù),用因子分析法對關聯(lián)性較大的各因素進行統(tǒng)計分析,重新生成數(shù)量較少且無關聯(lián)性的因子,將其作為BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡的輸入,訓練網(wǎng)絡并對其性能進行測試,并用其預測蘭州市規(guī)劃年內合理的出租車運力規(guī)模。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the domestic taxi traffic has developed rapidly, has covered all cities and more developed towns, and has become an important mode of transportation for the masses. In 2008, after the reform of the large sector system, the transport sector started from the policy. Standards and other aspects of different aspects of the introduction of a number of taxi related rules and regulations to strengthen the taxi industry supervision in order to improve public satisfaction. Promote the orderly development of the industry, but in the course of taxi development due to inconsistent development ideas, policies and measures are not clear, leading to some outstanding problems in the taxi industry. It restricts the orderly development of the whole industry. Among them, what kind of operation mode does the taxi operate. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the operation management mode and capacity scale of taxi, to find out the law and explore the direction. First of all, the paper describes the characteristics of taxi service in detail, and analyzes its functions in urban transportation. In order to establish the future direction of development of the taxi industry, and on the basis of analyzing the various unreasonable phenomena in the taxi market, find out the reasons that hinder the orderly development of taxi traffic. Secondly. Because of the choice of operation mode, related to the development direction of the whole taxi industry, affecting the taxi service quality and government management efficiency, but also involving the immediate interests of the company and drivers, so. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors, this paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of various taxi operation modes from the standpoint of different stakeholders. And select appropriate evaluation indicators (management requirements, property relations, bicycle operating costs, accident bearing capacity and passenger satisfaction, etc.). Construction of different operational models applied to specific urban conditions of the evaluation model of the pros and cons for the transport sector to select a reasonable and effective model to provide a theoretical basis. Thirdly, in the current situation of our national conditions. The population density is very large, the road resources are scarce, the environmental carrying capacity is weak, the transportation capacity scale must be intervened by the transportation management department. Therefore, the paper will restrict the taxi capacity scale each factor to carry on the comprehensive consideration. The factors that play a decisive role are excavated, and the influence mechanism of the factors on the capacity scale is understood. On the basis of considering the advantages and disadvantages of different forecasting methods, the principle of factor analysis is combined with the BP neural network theory. Finally, taking Lanzhou City as an analysis object, on the basis of quantifiable factors and easy data collection, determine the appropriate number of factors and collect data from relevant departments. The factor analysis method is used to analyze the factors with high correlation. The factors with less and no correlation are regenerated and used as the input of BP neural network to train the network and test its performance. It predicts the reasonable scale of taxi capacity in the planning year of Lanzhou City.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F572

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