發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-31 14:04

  本文選題：建設(shè)項(xiàng)目 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理　； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛，在房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)過(guò)程中，難免會(huì)遇到來(lái)自各個(gè)方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的影響，為了規(guī)避和降低這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素對(duì)于項(xiàng)目實(shí)施的影響，做好項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理越來(lái)越重要。隨著項(xiàng)目管理理論體系的不斷完善，國(guó)內(nèi)外風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理相關(guān)理論方法也在進(jìn)一步發(fā)展中，逐漸發(fā)展成為一門(mén)綜合性學(xué)科。然而，我國(guó)在房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的應(yīng)用上還處于起步階段，相對(duì)于國(guó)外發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家還存在一定的差距，因此，房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)必須認(rèn)真審視和充分認(rèn)識(shí)到項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理在房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目中的重要價(jià)值。 本文以A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目為研究對(duì)象，運(yùn)用項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論和方法對(duì)其進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下：首先，闡述了本文的選題背景、研究意義、國(guó)內(nèi)外風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究現(xiàn)狀，介紹了A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目基本情況，提出了本文的研究方法、研究?jī)?nèi)容及結(jié)構(gòu)框架；其次，闡述了項(xiàng)目管理、項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理、項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法等理論基礎(chǔ)；再次，識(shí)別出A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策階段、準(zhǔn)備階段、實(shí)施階段、經(jīng)營(yíng)階段存在的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，在此基礎(chǔ)上，建立了A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，運(yùn)用基于層次分析法的模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法對(duì)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做出評(píng)價(jià)，經(jīng)過(guò)一級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)、二級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)、項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)屬性識(shí)別，最終確定該項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度為一般；最后，提出A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施，在項(xiàng)目決策階段，要強(qiáng)化市場(chǎng)調(diào)研活動(dòng)、采用科學(xué)方法確定項(xiàng)目估算、加強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)分析和預(yù)測(cè)、做好財(cái)務(wù)分析和現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測(cè)、健全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)；在項(xiàng)目準(zhǔn)備階段，要重視項(xiàng)目設(shè)計(jì)方案的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析、做好項(xiàng)目施工招標(biāo)工作、加強(qiáng)項(xiàng)目施工合同管理、強(qiáng)化與各方溝通交流、做好項(xiàng)目實(shí)施前的市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)；在項(xiàng)目實(shí)施階段，要加強(qiáng)施工安全管理和特種設(shè)備的檢測(cè)、有效控制工程變更、及時(shí)支付工程價(jià)款、工程量變化的價(jià)款確定與調(diào)整、核實(shí)工程變更和簽證、協(xié)調(diào)工期、質(zhì)量和成本的合理關(guān)系、注重檔案管理并建立預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)制；在項(xiàng)目經(jīng)營(yíng)階段，要做好競(jìng)爭(zhēng)項(xiàng)目的調(diào)研分析、加強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)趨向和政策預(yù)測(cè)研究、選擇合理的營(yíng)銷(xiāo)模式。 本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)在于運(yùn)用項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論和方法對(duì)A花園小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，，在識(shí)別項(xiàng)目四個(gè)階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，運(yùn)用基于層次分析法的模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法對(duì)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做出評(píng)價(jià)，判定該項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度為一般，進(jìn)而有針對(duì)性的提出了具體的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施，可為項(xiàng)目建設(shè)企業(yè)實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供理論方法指導(dǎo)和案例經(jīng)驗(yàn)參考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy and the rapid development of the real estate industry, in the process of real estate project construction, it is inevitable to meet the impact of various risk factors, in order to avoid and reduce the impact of these risk factors on the implementation of the project. Project risk management is becoming more and more important. With the continuous improvement of the project management theory system, the related theories and methods of risk management at home and abroad are developing further, and gradually develop into a comprehensive subject. However, the application of risk management in real estate construction projects in China is still in its infancy, and there is still a certain gap compared with developed countries, so, Real estate development enterprises must carefully examine and fully realize the important value of project risk management in real estate construction projects. This paper takes the construction project of A Garden District as the research object, uses the project risk management theory and method to carry on the empirical analysis to it, the main research content is as follows: first, elaborated this article the topic background, the research significance, The present situation of risk management research at home and abroad, the basic situation of the construction project of Garden A, the research method, the research content and the structure frame are put forward. Secondly, the project management, the project risk management, the risk management of the project are introduced. Third, identify the main risk factors in the decision stage, preparation stage, implementation stage and management stage of the construction project of Garden A, and then identify the main risk factors in the stage of project risk analysis. The risk evaluation index system of A garden community construction project is established, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on analytic hierarchy process is used to evaluate the project risk. After the first grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the second level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the second grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to evaluate the project risk. Finally, the paper puts forward the measures to deal with the risk of the construction project in Garden A area. In the decision-making stage of the project, the market research activities should be strengthened, and the project estimation should be determined by scientific method. Strengthening market analysis and forecasting, making good financial analysis and cash flow forecasting, and improving the risk early warning system; in the stage of project preparation, we should attach importance to the economic analysis of project design schemes, do a good job in bidding for construction projects, and strengthen the management of project construction contracts. Strengthen communication and communication with all parties, make market forecast before project implementation, strengthen construction safety management and special equipment inspection, effectively control project changes, and pay project price promptly, during the project implementation phase, To determine and adjust the price of project quantity change, to verify the project change and visa, to coordinate the reasonable relationship between time limit, quality and cost, to pay attention to file management and to establish a forecasting mechanism, to do well the investigation and analysis of competitive projects during the project management phase, Strengthen the research of market trend and policy forecast and choose reasonable marketing model. The innovation of this paper is to use the theory and method of project risk management to make an empirical analysis on the construction project of Garden A, and on the basis of identifying the risk factors in the four stages of the project, the index system of project risk evaluation is established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP is used to evaluate the risk of the project, and the risk degree of the project is judged as general, and then the concrete measures to deal with the project risk are put forward. It can provide theoretical guidance and case reference for project construction enterprises to implement risk management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TU71;F299.233.4

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