發(fā)布時間：2018-03-31 14:34

  本文選題：住房制度改革　切入點：房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控　出處：《審計與經(jīng)濟研究》2015年02期

【摘要】：借鑒貨幣最優(yōu)政策模型,從機理上分析了房地產(chǎn)市場的變動規(guī)律,發(fā)現(xiàn)推動房價正常上漲的本質(zhì)在于成本推動以及人口遷移下對住房的剛性需求,其他政策雖然短期內(nèi)可調(diào)節(jié)房價波動,但長期過度使用會導(dǎo)致房價不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的畸形。進一步基于小波多分辨率分析與干預(yù)分析模型討論了我國政策沖擊下的房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)現(xiàn):房價波動短期內(nèi)會影響房地產(chǎn)銷售,但長期內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)銷售不受房價波動影響,房價上漲與銷售額增長均具有自身內(nèi)在的推動力;政策調(diào)整對房價調(diào)控的沖擊出現(xiàn)逆效性,短期內(nèi)可以抑制房價上漲,長期內(nèi)則會造成房價的更大波動。
[Abstract]:Based on the model of optimal monetary policy, this paper analyzes the changing law of real estate market from the mechanism, and finds that the essence of promoting the normal rise of house price lies in the cost promotion and the rigid demand for housing under the condition of population migration.Other policies can adjust house price volatility in the short term, but long-term overuse can lead to irreversibly abnormal house prices.Based on the wavelet multi-resolution analysis and intervention analysis model, this paper discusses the real estate market under the impact of policy in China. It is found that house price fluctuations will affect real estate sales in the short term, but real estate sales will not be affected by housing price fluctuations in the long run.Both the rise of house price and the increase of sales have their own internal driving force; the impact of policy adjustment on the regulation of house price is counterproductive, which can restrain the rise of house price in the short term and cause greater fluctuation of house price in the long run.
【作者單位】： 西安交通大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與金融學(xué)院;
【基金】：西安交通大學(xué)人文社科類重點項目(SKZ2014011)
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1691150