發(fā)布時間：2018-03-22 15:54

  本文選題：房地產(chǎn)信貸　切入點：房地產(chǎn)價格　出處：《河北大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：1998年,我國實行了商品房的市場化改革,改革實施以來,我國房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展進入加速模式,并逐漸成為我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),在國民生產(chǎn)總值中占比不斷增加,對促進我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展起到了關(guān)鍵性作用。住房問題是關(guān)系國計民生的重大事項,房價更是關(guān)系到社會穩(wěn)定,人民幸福的重點問題。近十年以來,我國的房地產(chǎn)市場上商品房的供給數(shù)量不斷增多,價格也在不斷的上漲,房價的上漲直接影響到了居民的生活條件以及生活質(zhì)量,房價的過快增長引起了房地產(chǎn)市場的畸形發(fā)展,甚至威脅到了我國國民經(jīng)濟的運行。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,從1999年房改至2016年,我國城市商品房價格由2053元/平方米上漲到7476元/平方米,翻了三倍多。不斷上升的房價使得居民生活的幸福指數(shù)有所下降,影響到了居民的生活水平的提高,房價的上漲問題已經(jīng)成為我國居民與政府密切關(guān)注的熱點問題。為此,我國政府采取多種措施抑制房價的繼續(xù)上漲,例如出臺限購令,但是即使國家出臺相應(yīng)的政策措施,房價的上漲對于工薪階層來說也已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了泡沫化,并對社會造成了不同程度的負(fù)面影響。一邊是房價快速上漲,一邊是居民貸款占據(jù)新增貸款的九成以上,這是今年前兩個月的房價和信貸數(shù)據(jù)給人留下的深刻印象,隨后而來的則是一線房地產(chǎn)市場的一連串收緊政策。與上一輪限購、限貸政策多集中在一、二線城市有所不同的是,本輪限購波及到了一線周邊縣市。環(huán)一線城市房價的較快上漲,是此次調(diào)控加碼的誘因,而一線城市投資需求的外溢,是助推周邊城市地價和房價不斷攀升的主要原因。作為資金密集型行業(yè),房地產(chǎn)的資金來源很大一部分是來源于房地產(chǎn)信貸。但是兩者之間到底是怎樣的關(guān)系呢,兩者之間是否存在因果關(guān)系?在本文中,我們將會找到答案。本篇論文主要從銀行給予房地產(chǎn)的貸款數(shù)量與規(guī)模出發(fā),著重分析研究了房價的上漲與信貸兩者之間究竟存在怎樣的關(guān)系,對于兩者之間的關(guān)系分析采取了理論分析與實證研究分析相結(jié)合的分析方法。在歸納總結(jié)國內(nèi)與國外商品房價格與信貸之間的關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,將得到的結(jié)果進行匯總,然后闡釋分析了房地產(chǎn)價格、以及房地產(chǎn)信貸的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。在此基礎(chǔ)上進一步論述了房地產(chǎn)信貸對房價影響的理論分析與傳導(dǎo)機制。為了驗證兩者之間的關(guān)系,本文又通過VEC模型對房價與信貸的關(guān)系進行了實證研究,并得出結(jié)論:信貸的規(guī)模會引起商品房價格呈同方向變化,即信貸擴張會使房價上升,反之則會使房價下降,其中個人按揭貸款對房價的影響相對于房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款來說影響較大。最后結(jié)合我國的房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,本文主要針對房地產(chǎn)信貸方面提出如何抑制房價的繼續(xù)上漲的建議。
[Abstract]:In 1998, our country carried out the market-oriented reform of commercial housing. Since the implementation of the reform, the development of the real estate market in our country has entered the accelerated mode, and has gradually become the pillar industry of our country's economic development, accounting for an increasing proportion of the gross national product (GNP). Housing is a major issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and housing prices are also the key issues related to social stability and the well-being of the people. The supply of commercial housing in China's real estate market is increasing, and the prices are also rising. The rise of house prices has a direct impact on the living conditions and quality of life of the residents. The excessive increase in housing prices has caused the deformed development of the real estate market and even threatened the operation of the national economy. Data show that from 1999 to 2016, the price of commercial housing in urban areas in China rose from 2053 yuan per square meter to 7476 yuan per square meter. The price of housing has more than tripled. The rising house prices have caused a decline in the happiness index of the residents, which has affected the improvement of the living standards of the residents. The problem of rising house prices has become a hot issue of close concern between the residents and the government in our country. Our government has taken a variety of measures to curb the continued rise in house prices, such as the introduction of purchase restrictions. But even if the state has introduced corresponding policies and measures, the rise in house prices has already been bubbling for the working-class. And has caused varying degrees of negative impact on society. On the one hand, house prices are rising rapidly, and on the other hand, residents' loans account for more than 90% of the new loans. This is the impressive housing price and credit data for the first two months of this year. Then came a series of tightening policies in the first-tier real estate market. Compared with the previous round of restrictions on purchasing, the policy of restricting loans was mainly concentrated in the first and second tier cities. This round of purchase restrictions has spread to counties and cities around the frontline. The relatively rapid rise in housing prices in first-tier cities is the incentive for this adjustment and control increase, and the spillover of investment demand in first-tier cities. As a capital-intensive industry, a large part of the capital source of real estate comes from real estate credit. But what is the relationship between the two? Is there a causal relationship between the two? In this paper, we will find out the answer. This paper focuses on the relationship between the rise of house prices and credit, starting from the amount and scale of bank loans to real estate. The relationship between the two is analyzed by the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. On the basis of summing up the relationship between domestic and foreign commodity housing prices and credit, the results are summarized. Then it explains and analyzes the real estate price, and the development of the real estate credit. On this basis, it further discusses the theoretical analysis and transmission mechanism of the impact of the real estate credit on the house price, in order to verify the relationship between the two. This paper also makes an empirical study on the relationship between house price and credit through VEC model, and concludes that the scale of credit will cause the price of commercial housing to change in the same direction, that is, the expansion of credit will cause the price of house price to rise, otherwise, it will cause the price of house price to fall. Among them, the impact of personal mortgage loans on housing prices is greater than that on real estate development loans. Finally, combining with the current development situation of the real estate market in China, This paper puts forward some suggestions on how to restrain the rising of house price in the aspect of real estate credit.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.4

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本文編號：1649337