發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-11 20:11

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)實(shí)行利率走廊調(diào)控模式的理論分析及實(shí)證研究　出處：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 利率穩(wěn)定性 利率走廊 貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)

【摘要】：自二十世紀(jì)末以來(lái),世界上一些國(guó)家貨幣政策的中介目標(biāo)逐漸改為實(shí)行以利率為中介目標(biāo)的貨幣政策實(shí)施操作框架,這一改革過(guò)程中多數(shù)國(guó)家采用的方法具有共同點(diǎn)即:實(shí)施利率走廊調(diào)控模式,這一模式的運(yùn)用使其利率更加穩(wěn)定、貨幣政策調(diào)控效果得到提高。近年來(lái),隨著貨幣供給量和宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系逐漸不明顯,我國(guó)貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)也面臨向利率轉(zhuǎn)變的問(wèn)題。基于我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)實(shí)際情況并吸取國(guó)外研究經(jīng)驗(yàn),在2013年我國(guó)中央銀行設(shè)立常備借貸便利,開(kāi)始創(chuàng)設(shè)我國(guó)的走廊框架。因此,要實(shí)現(xiàn)中介目標(biāo)的轉(zhuǎn)變,提高貨幣政策調(diào)控效率,對(duì)利率走廊的相關(guān)理論、運(yùn)行機(jī)制和在我國(guó)的適應(yīng)性進(jìn)行研究十分有意義。本文首先對(duì)文章的選題所處背景和研究利率走廊調(diào)控模式的意義進(jìn)行闡述,并對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者和國(guó)外學(xué)者關(guān)于貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)方針轉(zhuǎn)變、利率走廊調(diào)控模式的有關(guān)資料進(jìn)行梳理和吸收,在國(guó)內(nèi)外專(zhuān)家已有研習(xí)成果上整理出本文的研究路線(xiàn)以及框架布局。進(jìn)而本文對(duì)國(guó)際上和我國(guó)的利率走廊調(diào)控模式實(shí)施的現(xiàn)狀加以介紹。第二部分,對(duì)貨幣政策、貨幣政策的中介目標(biāo)、利率走廊等的關(guān)聯(lián)概念和理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行描述,隨后詳細(xì)介紹了利率走廊的作用機(jī)制、利率走廊調(diào)控模式的優(yōu)異之處和利率走廊框架的設(shè)置原理。第三部分,利用時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),以協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和VAR模型為基礎(chǔ),將利率和貨幣供給量的可控性以及與GDP的相關(guān)性做實(shí)證分析,并將分析結(jié)果加以對(duì)比得出結(jié)論:利率在可控性、相關(guān)性上均優(yōu)于貨幣供給量,更加適合于充當(dāng)貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)。該部分又以常備借貸便利設(shè)立時(shí)間為分界點(diǎn)將時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)分成兩部分,建立VAR模型,對(duì)比走廊框架設(shè)立前后我國(guó)利率反應(yīng)情況,驗(yàn)證該調(diào)控模式在我國(guó)的適用性,得出結(jié)論:常備借貸便利作為利率走廊上限能夠發(fā)揮作用,降低利率波動(dòng)性,提高其對(duì)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的解釋力度,我國(guó)市場(chǎng)情況適合采納利率走廊調(diào)控模式。最后,本文在理論分析和實(shí)證分析的基礎(chǔ)之上,提出我國(guó)實(shí)行利率走廊調(diào)控模式的相關(guān)政策建議:一是完善常備借貸便利工具體系;二是優(yōu)化和規(guī)范金融市場(chǎng)之傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制;三是升級(jí)電子清算系統(tǒng)的建設(shè),提高貨幣政策的透明程度;四是加快貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的改革轉(zhuǎn)變。
[Abstract]:Since the end of 20th century, the intermediate target of monetary policy in some countries in the world has been gradually changed into an operational framework of monetary policy implementation with interest rate as the intermediate target. The methods adopted by most countries in this reform process have common points, that is, the implementation of the interest rate corridor control model, which makes the interest rate more stable and the monetary policy control effect improved in recent years. As the relationship between money supply and macro-economy is not obvious, the intermediary target of monetary policy in China is facing the problem of turning to interest rate. Based on the actual situation of our financial market and drawing on foreign research experience. In 2013, the Central Bank of China set up standing loan facilities, and began to create the corridor framework of our country. Therefore, to achieve the transformation of intermediary objectives, improve the efficiency of monetary policy control, the relevant theory of interest corridor. It is very meaningful to study the operation mechanism and adaptability in our country. Firstly, this paper expounds the background of the topic and the significance of the study of interest rate corridor regulation model. And domestic and foreign scholars on the monetary policy intermediary target and policy transformation, interest rate corridor control model of the relevant data are combed and absorbed. In the domestic and foreign experts on the existing research results collate the research route and framework layout. Then this paper introduces the international and China's current situation of the implementation of the interest rate corridor control model. Part two. The paper describes the related concepts and theoretical basis of monetary policy, monetary policy intermediary target, interest rate corridor, and then introduces the mechanism of interest rate corridor in detail. The advantages of the interest rate corridor control model and the setting principle of the interest rate corridor framework. The third part, using time series data, based on cointegration test and VAR model. The controllability of interest rate and money supply and the correlation between interest rate and GDP are analyzed empirically, and the results are compared. The conclusion is that interest rate is superior to money supply in controllability and relativity. This part divides the time series data into two parts and establishes the VAR model. Comparing the interest rate response of our country before and after the establishment of the Corridor Framework, to verify the applicability of this model in China, draw the conclusion: standing loan facilities as the upper limit of the interest rate corridor can play a role in reducing interest rate volatility. Improve its macroeconomic interpretation, China's market conditions are suitable for the adoption of interest rate corridor control model. Finally, this paper based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. This paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions of implementing the regulation mode of interest rate corridor in China: first, perfecting the system of standing loan facilities; Second, optimize and standardize the transmission mechanism of financial market; Third, upgrade the construction of electronic clearing system and improve the transparency of monetary policy; Fourth, accelerate the reform transformation of monetary policy intermediary target.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.0

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