山東省金融發(fā)展與對(duì)外貿(mào)易關(guān)系實(shí)證研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-17 19:20
【摘要】：區(qū)域金融發(fā)展與對(duì)外貿(mào)易關(guān)系的研究，是近年來經(jīng)濟(jì)界熱門的研究話題之一。在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化、一體化的過程中，金融和對(duì)外貿(mào)易逐漸成為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中的核心和動(dòng)力，，金融發(fā)展和國際貿(mào)易相互聯(lián)系、滲透和促進(jìn)，共同推進(jìn)全球統(tǒng)一大市場的形成。山東省作為我國第三經(jīng)濟(jì)大省，金融發(fā)展一直處于落后狀態(tài)。金融業(yè)的發(fā)展水平成為山東省經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步騰飛時(shí)發(fā)育不全的翅膀，影響了山東省經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。2013年8月7日，山東省提出了金融改革“22條”，金融發(fā)展的步伐已經(jīng)邁開。以處于經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型期的山東省作為研究對(duì)象，分析其金融發(fā)展與對(duì)外貿(mào)易的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，符合山東省現(xiàn)階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形勢和金融發(fā)展要求，具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文對(duì)金融發(fā)展理論、對(duì)外貿(mào)易理論進(jìn)行整理，在前人文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)出金融發(fā)展對(duì)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的促進(jìn)作用和金融抑制對(duì)對(duì)外貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生的阻礙作用。從縱向分析和橫向?qū)Ρ葍蓚�(gè)角度，對(duì)山東省金融發(fā)展的規(guī)模和效率、山東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展的規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了動(dòng)態(tài)描述，發(fā)現(xiàn)從縱向上看，山東省金融發(fā)展的規(guī)模逐步擴(kuò)大，金融發(fā)展效率進(jìn)一步提高，山東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展迅速，長期存在較大的貿(mào)易順差，在山東省的對(duì)外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)中，工業(yè)制成品的比重遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于初級(jí)產(chǎn)品，出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)正慢慢優(yōu)化。但在與江蘇省和浙江省的橫向?qū)Ρ确治鲋校l(fā)現(xiàn)江蘇省和浙江省的金融規(guī)模遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于山東省，并且差距越來越大；對(duì)于金融發(fā)展效率，浙江省的金融發(fā)展效率在不斷的提高，山東省的金融發(fā)展效率呈下降態(tài)勢，并且差距在不斷擴(kuò)大，江蘇省的金融發(fā)展效率在三省中屬于落后地位。 通過對(duì)山東省金融發(fā)展與對(duì)外貿(mào)易總量的關(guān)系和山東省金融發(fā)展與對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系分別進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，選取金融相關(guān)比率、保險(xiǎn)市場發(fā)展水平和信貸轉(zhuǎn)化率三個(gè)指標(biāo)來衡量山東省的金融發(fā)展情況，用對(duì)外貿(mào)易依存度指標(biāo)來衡量對(duì)外貿(mào)易總量，用工業(yè)制成品出口額占總出口額的比重來反映對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)情況，發(fā)現(xiàn)金融發(fā)展與對(duì)外貿(mào)易總量和對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)有著長期均衡的關(guān)系，金融發(fā)展水平的提高，能夠帶動(dòng)對(duì)外貿(mào)易總量的增加和對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的改善。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出了政策建議，山東省要進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)金融改革，加快金融化進(jìn)程，從而推動(dòng)山東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。
[Abstract]:The research on the relationship between regional financial development and foreign trade is one of the hottest research topics in economic circles in recent years. In the process of globalization and integration of the world economy, finance and foreign trade have gradually become the core and motive force in the process of modern economic development, and financial development and international trade are interlinked, infiltrated and promoted. Jointly promote the formation of a global unified market. Shandong Province, as the third largest province of economy, the financial development has been in a backward state. The level of development of the financial industry has become the wings of the development of Shandong Province, which has affected the sustainable and healthy development of the economy of Shandong Province. On August 7, 2013, Shandong Province put forward the "22 articles" of financial reform. The pace of financial development has begun. Taking Shandong Province, which is in the transition period of economic structure, as the object of study, it is of great practical significance to analyze the internal relationship between its financial development and foreign trade, which accords with the current economic development situation and financial development requirements of Shandong Province. In this paper, the theory of financial development and the theory of foreign trade are sorted out, and on the basis of previous literature, the author summarizes the promoting effect of financial development on foreign trade and the hindrance of financial repression to foreign trade. From the angle of vertical analysis and horizontal contrast, this paper describes dynamically the scale and efficiency of Shandong's financial development and the scale and structure of Shandong's foreign trade development. It is found that the scale of Shandong's financial development is gradually expanding from a vertical point of view. The efficiency of financial development has been further improved, and Shandong's foreign trade has developed rapidly, with a large trade surplus for a long time. In Shandong's foreign trade commodity structure, the proportion of manufactured products is far higher than that of primary products. The structure of export commodities is slowly being optimized. But in the horizontal comparative analysis with Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province, it is found that the financial scale of Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province is much higher than that of Shandong Province, and the gap between them is getting bigger and bigger. With regard to the financial development efficiency, the financial development efficiency of Zhejiang Province is constantly improving, and the financial development efficiency of Shandong Province is declining, and the gap is widening. The financial development efficiency of Jiangsu Province is in the backward position among the three provinces. Through the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger empirical test on the relationship between the financial development of Shandong Province and the total volume of foreign trade and the relationship between the financial development of Shandong Province and the structure of foreign trade, the financial correlation ratio is selected. The level of development of the insurance market and the conversion rate of credit are three indicators to measure the financial development of Shandong Province, and the total amount of foreign trade is measured by the index of dependence on foreign trade. The structure of foreign trade is reflected by the proportion of industrial manufactured exports to total exports. It is found that the financial development has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the total volume of foreign trade and the structure of foreign trade, and the level of financial development has improved. It can lead to the increase of the total amount of foreign trade and the improvement of the structure of foreign trade. On the basis of this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions. Shandong Province should further promote financial reform and accelerate the process of financialization, so as to promote the development of foreign trade and economic growth of Shandong Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F832.7;F752.8
本文編號(hào)：2338809
[Abstract]:The research on the relationship between regional financial development and foreign trade is one of the hottest research topics in economic circles in recent years. In the process of globalization and integration of the world economy, finance and foreign trade have gradually become the core and motive force in the process of modern economic development, and financial development and international trade are interlinked, infiltrated and promoted. Jointly promote the formation of a global unified market. Shandong Province, as the third largest province of economy, the financial development has been in a backward state. The level of development of the financial industry has become the wings of the development of Shandong Province, which has affected the sustainable and healthy development of the economy of Shandong Province. On August 7, 2013, Shandong Province put forward the "22 articles" of financial reform. The pace of financial development has begun. Taking Shandong Province, which is in the transition period of economic structure, as the object of study, it is of great practical significance to analyze the internal relationship between its financial development and foreign trade, which accords with the current economic development situation and financial development requirements of Shandong Province. In this paper, the theory of financial development and the theory of foreign trade are sorted out, and on the basis of previous literature, the author summarizes the promoting effect of financial development on foreign trade and the hindrance of financial repression to foreign trade. From the angle of vertical analysis and horizontal contrast, this paper describes dynamically the scale and efficiency of Shandong's financial development and the scale and structure of Shandong's foreign trade development. It is found that the scale of Shandong's financial development is gradually expanding from a vertical point of view. The efficiency of financial development has been further improved, and Shandong's foreign trade has developed rapidly, with a large trade surplus for a long time. In Shandong's foreign trade commodity structure, the proportion of manufactured products is far higher than that of primary products. The structure of export commodities is slowly being optimized. But in the horizontal comparative analysis with Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province, it is found that the financial scale of Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province is much higher than that of Shandong Province, and the gap between them is getting bigger and bigger. With regard to the financial development efficiency, the financial development efficiency of Zhejiang Province is constantly improving, and the financial development efficiency of Shandong Province is declining, and the gap is widening. The financial development efficiency of Jiangsu Province is in the backward position among the three provinces. Through the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger empirical test on the relationship between the financial development of Shandong Province and the total volume of foreign trade and the relationship between the financial development of Shandong Province and the structure of foreign trade, the financial correlation ratio is selected. The level of development of the insurance market and the conversion rate of credit are three indicators to measure the financial development of Shandong Province, and the total amount of foreign trade is measured by the index of dependence on foreign trade. The structure of foreign trade is reflected by the proportion of industrial manufactured exports to total exports. It is found that the financial development has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the total volume of foreign trade and the structure of foreign trade, and the level of financial development has improved. It can lead to the increase of the total amount of foreign trade and the improvement of the structure of foreign trade. On the basis of this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions. Shandong Province should further promote financial reform and accelerate the process of financialization, so as to promote the development of foreign trade and economic growth of Shandong Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F832.7;F752.8
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