廣東省出口貿(mào)易的影響因素分析
[Abstract]:Throughout the past 30 years and more, the level of economic development and the total value of export trade in China have developed rapidly after the reform and opening up. Obviously, there is a certain correlation between export and economic development. Increasing exports can effectively boost economic growth. This paper studies the main factors influencing export trade, and uses these factors and total export volume to establish econometric model to analyze the different influence of each factor on export trade, which can improve the export trade related policies and ensure the sustainable development of export trade. It is of great significance to promote the steady growth of national economy and improve the economic strength and international competitiveness of a country. Based on the analysis of the present situation of Guangdong Province, this paper selects the total import amount, the investment in science and technology and R & D, the inflow of foreign capital, the labor input of GDP, Guangdong Province, and the export commodity price index of China. The annual average exchange rate is the main factor affecting export trade; According to the scattered plot analysis of variable correlation, eliminate the partial correlation of variables is not obvious; After eliminating some non-stationary variables, the multivariate linear regression model is established by using the residual variables, and the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables is verified by cointegration test. The results show that GDP of partner countries has the most significant impact on exports, followed by imports. Imports, foreign direct investment, and partner countries' GDP changes-a percentage point, respectively, will bring export movements of 0.63or 0.261.36 percentage points. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of export trade, this paper compares the export trade of Guangdong Province with that of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province. The results show that the export scale of Guangdong Province is larger than that of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province. The contribution of processing trade to the total amount of trade is very important, and foreign-funded enterprises are the backbone of the main body of export. In terms of dependence on foreign trade, Guangdong Province is higher than Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province, which is especially sensitive to the changes of international market, and the market structure of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province is superior to that of Guangdong Province. In terms of trade friction, the situation of trade friction in the three provinces is relatively severe. Finally, according to the characteristics of foreign trade at present, some rational countermeasures are put forward.
【學位授予單位】:遼寧大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:F752.62
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