【摘要】：縱觀過去三十多年,我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和出口貿(mào)易總值在改革開放以后發(fā)展尤其迅猛,顯然,出口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間存在一定的相關(guān)關(guān)系,提高出口量可以有效推進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。研究影響出口貿(mào)易的主要因素,并利用這些因素與出口總額建立計(jì)量模型分析各個(gè)因素對(duì)出口貿(mào)易的不同影響大小,對(duì)于完善出口貿(mào)易相關(guān)政策、確保出口貿(mào)易的可持續(xù)發(fā)展、推動(dòng)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)及提高一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力和國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力均有重大意義。本文首先分析了廣東省發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,在此基礎(chǔ)上選取進(jìn)口總額、科技與研發(fā)投資額、外資流入額、貿(mào)易合作方的GDP、廣東省勞動(dòng)力投入、我國(guó)出口商品價(jià)格指數(shù)、年平均匯率作為影響出口貿(mào)易的主要因素;根據(jù)散點(diǎn)圖分析變量相關(guān)關(guān)系,剔除部分相關(guān)關(guān)系不明顯的變量;再通過對(duì)序列的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)剔除部分不平穩(wěn)變量后,利用剩余變量建立多元線性回歸模型,并運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)驗(yàn)證了變量之間存在長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系,結(jié)果表明伙伴國(guó)GDP對(duì)出口影響最為顯著,其次為進(jìn)口。進(jìn)口、外商直接投資、伙伴國(guó)GDP變動(dòng)—個(gè)百分點(diǎn),分別會(huì)帶來出口變動(dòng)0.63、0.26、1.36個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。本文在分析出口貿(mào)易影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上,將廣東省的出口貿(mào)易與江蘇省、山東省進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,分析結(jié)果顯示廣東省出口規(guī)模大于江蘇省、山東省,加工貿(mào)易對(duì)貿(mào)易總額的貢獻(xiàn)舉足輕重,而且外資企業(yè)是出口主體的中堅(jiān)力量;外貿(mào)依存度方面,廣東省高于江蘇省、山東省,導(dǎo)致其對(duì)國(guó)際市場(chǎng)變動(dòng)尤其敏感;江蘇省、山東省市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)于廣東省。貿(mào)易摩擦方面,三個(gè)省的貿(mào)易摩擦形勢(shì)比較嚴(yán)峻。文章最后根據(jù)目前對(duì)外貿(mào)易的特點(diǎn),提出一些合理化對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:Throughout the past 30 years and more, the level of economic development and the total value of export trade in China have developed rapidly after the reform and opening up. Obviously, there is a certain correlation between export and economic development. Increasing exports can effectively boost economic growth. This paper studies the main factors influencing export trade, and uses these factors and total export volume to establish econometric model to analyze the different influence of each factor on export trade, which can improve the export trade related policies and ensure the sustainable development of export trade. It is of great significance to promote the steady growth of national economy and improve the economic strength and international competitiveness of a country. Based on the analysis of the present situation of Guangdong Province, this paper selects the total import amount, the investment in science and technology and R & D, the inflow of foreign capital, the labor input of GDP, Guangdong Province, and the export commodity price index of China. The annual average exchange rate is the main factor affecting export trade; According to the scattered plot analysis of variable correlation, eliminate the partial correlation of variables is not obvious; After eliminating some non-stationary variables, the multivariate linear regression model is established by using the residual variables, and the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables is verified by cointegration test. The results show that GDP of partner countries has the most significant impact on exports, followed by imports. Imports, foreign direct investment, and partner countries' GDP changes-a percentage point, respectively, will bring export movements of 0.63or 0.261.36 percentage points. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of export trade, this paper compares the export trade of Guangdong Province with that of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province. The results show that the export scale of Guangdong Province is larger than that of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province. The contribution of processing trade to the total amount of trade is very important, and foreign-funded enterprises are the backbone of the main body of export. In terms of dependence on foreign trade, Guangdong Province is higher than Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province, which is especially sensitive to the changes of international market, and the market structure of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province is superior to that of Guangdong Province. In terms of trade friction, the situation of trade friction in the three provinces is relatively severe. Finally, according to the characteristics of foreign trade at present, some rational countermeasures are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62

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