宏觀審慎政策對房地產(chǎn)價格的影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-20 19:35
【摘要】：改革開放后,國家就提出了一系列的針對房地產(chǎn)宏觀調(diào)控制度的改革,我國的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)又達到了一個新高度,成為了我國的支柱性產(chǎn)業(yè),隨著經(jīng)濟的蓬勃發(fā)展,我國公民的收入大幅度提高加上市場自然規(guī)律導(dǎo)致的房屋供不應(yīng)求,使得近年來房價飛速上漲,世界上很多國家都曾有過房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展過猛、房價過度上升從而引發(fā)泡沫積累,最終使得國民經(jīng)濟整體受到危害的先例。目前在國際上已經(jīng)公開認(rèn)可,針對房價管控方面,宏觀審慎政策相較于其他政策的實施效果顯著。央行用宏觀審慎政策調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)市場,是為了抑制房價、降低房地產(chǎn)熱度,使其能夠平穩(wěn)發(fā)展,對我國金融市場乃至國民經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)健也都有著至關(guān)重要的作用。因此對房價與宏觀審慎政策關(guān)系的研究就勢在必行了,發(fā)現(xiàn)并深刻探究背后所蘊含的經(jīng)濟規(guī)律,為其提供相應(yīng)的政策建議,就具有了相當(dāng)重要的現(xiàn)實意義。鑒于于2008年金融危機的嚴(yán)重性,本文選取了2005——2015年的房價季度數(shù)據(jù)以及相應(yīng)的利率、貨幣供給量、貸款價值比、GDP增長率、杠桿率、消費者價格指數(shù),并運用了其中采用貸款價值比(LTV)作為宏觀審慎的代理變量。運用的是VAR模型檢驗了宏觀審慎政策對房價的作用效果,分析了宏觀審慎政策對房價波動的調(diào)控效果、作用機制以及最優(yōu)政策組合等問題。研究表明,房價的波動往往是系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險產(chǎn)生的主要根源,然而貨幣政策調(diào)控的單一性并不能完全的使金融穩(wěn)定,針對房價調(diào)控問題,必須要適當(dāng)?shù)倪\用宏觀審慎政策,用宏觀審慎政策工具的代理變量貸款價值比(LTV)來約束居民信貸行為,再配合適當(dāng)?shù)钠渌?從而才可以最有效的降低房價波動。國外學(xué)者雖然已有一些研究宏觀審慎對房價影響的文獻,但認(rèn)真整理現(xiàn)有的宏觀審慎監(jiān)管相關(guān)文獻不難看出,第一是理論與實踐分離開的,并沒有很好的結(jié)合分析;第二多是全景式的分析宏觀審慎框架的研究,缺乏對某一種具體政策工具運用的研究;第三國內(nèi)多是研究單一的貨幣政策與房價之間的關(guān)系;第四即使有宏觀審慎方面的研究,也多是從其對整體金融業(yè)的作用角度出發(fā),而理論與實踐結(jié)合的去分析宏觀審慎政策對房價影響作用的文獻并不多。因此本文在前人的基礎(chǔ)上具體的運用了模型去檢驗宏觀審慎政策對房價的實證效果,并切實的提出了相應(yīng)的政策措施,分析了宏觀審慎政策對房價波動的調(diào)控效果、作用機制以及最優(yōu)政策組合等問題。有助于探索宏觀審慎政策對房價的影響機理,幫助更好的控制房價。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the state has put forward a series of reforms aimed at the macro-control system of real estate. The real estate industry of our country has reached a new height and become the pillar industry of our country. With the rapid development of the economy, The substantial increase in the income of Chinese citizens and the shortage of housing due to the natural laws of the market have led to a rapid rise in housing prices in recent years. Many countries in the world have experienced excessive real estate development, and excessive rise in housing prices has led to the accumulation of bubbles. Finally, the national economy as a whole is endangered by the precedent. It has been publicly accepted that macroprudential policies are more effective than other policies in controlling house prices. The central bank controls the real estate market by macroprudential policy in order to restrain the house price, reduce the real estate heat, make it develop smoothly, and play a vital role in the stability of our country's financial market and even the national economy. Therefore, it is imperative to study the relationship between house prices and macro-prudential policies. It is of great practical significance to discover and deeply explore the economic laws behind them and provide corresponding policy recommendations. In view of the severity of the financial crisis in 2008, this paper selects the quarterly data on house prices from 2005 to 2015 and the corresponding interest rates, money supply, loan value ratio, GDP growth rate, leverage ratio, consumer price index. The loan value ratio (LTV) is used as a macroprudential proxy variable. The VAR model is used to test the effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price, and the effects of macro-prudential policy on the price fluctuation, the mechanism and the optimal policy combination are analyzed. The research shows that the fluctuation of house price is often the main source of systemic financial risk, but the singularity of monetary policy regulation can not completely make the financial stability. To solve the problem of housing price regulation, we must apply macroprudential policy appropriately. The principal variable loan value ratio (LTV) of macroprudential policy instrument is used to restrain the resident's credit behavior and to coordinate with other appropriate policies so as to reduce the fluctuation of house price most effectively. Although some foreign scholars have studied the influence of macroprudential on housing prices, it is not difficult to find out that the first is the separation of theory and practice, and there is no good combination analysis; The second is a panoramic analysis of the macro-prudential framework, lacking research on the use of a specific policy tool; third, domestic studies on the relationship between a single monetary policy and housing prices; and fourth, even if there is a macro-prudential study. Most of them are from the point of view of its effect on the whole financial industry, but there are few literatures to analyze the effect of macroprudential policy on house price by combining theory and practice. Therefore, this paper uses the model to test the empirical effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price, and puts forward the corresponding policy measures, and analyzes the effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price fluctuation. The mechanism of action and the optimal policy combination and so on. It is helpful to explore the influence mechanism of macroprudential policy on house price and help to control house price better.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23
本文編號：2284173
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the state has put forward a series of reforms aimed at the macro-control system of real estate. The real estate industry of our country has reached a new height and become the pillar industry of our country. With the rapid development of the economy, The substantial increase in the income of Chinese citizens and the shortage of housing due to the natural laws of the market have led to a rapid rise in housing prices in recent years. Many countries in the world have experienced excessive real estate development, and excessive rise in housing prices has led to the accumulation of bubbles. Finally, the national economy as a whole is endangered by the precedent. It has been publicly accepted that macroprudential policies are more effective than other policies in controlling house prices. The central bank controls the real estate market by macroprudential policy in order to restrain the house price, reduce the real estate heat, make it develop smoothly, and play a vital role in the stability of our country's financial market and even the national economy. Therefore, it is imperative to study the relationship between house prices and macro-prudential policies. It is of great practical significance to discover and deeply explore the economic laws behind them and provide corresponding policy recommendations. In view of the severity of the financial crisis in 2008, this paper selects the quarterly data on house prices from 2005 to 2015 and the corresponding interest rates, money supply, loan value ratio, GDP growth rate, leverage ratio, consumer price index. The loan value ratio (LTV) is used as a macroprudential proxy variable. The VAR model is used to test the effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price, and the effects of macro-prudential policy on the price fluctuation, the mechanism and the optimal policy combination are analyzed. The research shows that the fluctuation of house price is often the main source of systemic financial risk, but the singularity of monetary policy regulation can not completely make the financial stability. To solve the problem of housing price regulation, we must apply macroprudential policy appropriately. The principal variable loan value ratio (LTV) of macroprudential policy instrument is used to restrain the resident's credit behavior and to coordinate with other appropriate policies so as to reduce the fluctuation of house price most effectively. Although some foreign scholars have studied the influence of macroprudential on housing prices, it is not difficult to find out that the first is the separation of theory and practice, and there is no good combination analysis; The second is a panoramic analysis of the macro-prudential framework, lacking research on the use of a specific policy tool; third, domestic studies on the relationship between a single monetary policy and housing prices; and fourth, even if there is a macro-prudential study. Most of them are from the point of view of its effect on the whole financial industry, but there are few literatures to analyze the effect of macroprudential policy on house price by combining theory and practice. Therefore, this paper uses the model to test the empirical effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price, and puts forward the corresponding policy measures, and analyzes the effect of macro-prudential policy on housing price fluctuation. The mechanism of action and the optimal policy combination and so on. It is helpful to explore the influence mechanism of macroprudential policy on house price and help to control house price better.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23
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