【摘要】：一個(gè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展相協(xié)調(diào)的房地產(chǎn)市場應(yīng)該是一個(gè)健康的、平穩(wěn)的、能對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生拉動(dòng)作用的市場。本文通過定性、定量相結(jié)合的分析方法,利用統(tǒng)計(jì)方法,計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法對(duì)云南省房地產(chǎn)市場的周期性和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了測定；鑒于房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在云南省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的重要性,本文通過泡沫分析評(píng)價(jià)了云南省房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的健康水平,并分析了影響房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康、平穩(wěn)發(fā)展的影響因素。 首先,本文采用單一指標(biāo)法、基于主成分合成的多指標(biāo)方法,對(duì)云南省房地產(chǎn)業(yè)1996年——2012年的運(yùn)行周期進(jìn)行測算,并對(duì)云南省房地產(chǎn)的周期特征和成因進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的分析。研究結(jié)果表明：第一,房地產(chǎn)周期與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)周期密切相關(guān),但其復(fù)蘇、繁榮期快于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期,其衰退期滯后于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的結(jié)論；第二,國家宏觀調(diào)控政策對(duì)云南省房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng)影響較為明顯,鼓勵(lì)性政策當(dāng)期響應(yīng),抑制性政策滯后1-2期響應(yīng)。第三,2009年以前,云南省房地產(chǎn)周期與全國的房地產(chǎn)周期的波峰同步出現(xiàn),云南省的波谷滯后于全國波谷1年,但2009年后云南省的波峰、波谷均滯后于全國1年。 其次,本文采用VAR模型、Granger因果檢驗(yàn),對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與云南省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。結(jié)果顯示,云南省房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間存在長期的協(xié)整關(guān)系,房地產(chǎn)投資每增長1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),可拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長0.496個(gè)百分點(diǎn),二者之間存在雙向的Granger因果關(guān)系,同時(shí),云南省房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的持續(xù)正向影響要大于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的正向影響。 第三,本文采用1996-2012年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),利用影響房地產(chǎn)泡沫的五個(gè)指標(biāo),對(duì)昆明市、云南省及全國的房地產(chǎn)的泡沫進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)分析,研究表明云南省房地產(chǎn)業(yè)1996-2012年總體來看是健康的,其健康水平優(yōu)于全國,但是省會(huì)城市昆明的房地產(chǎn)市場在部分年份存在泡沫。其次,在構(gòu)建房地產(chǎn)泡沫指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,采用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法,對(duì)昆明市的房地產(chǎn)泡沫作了縱向與橫向的研究與比較,并對(duì)其成因作了詳細(xì)分析。 第四,總結(jié)了前面的分析結(jié)果,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了云南省促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的政策建議,并對(duì)未來的研究進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:A real estate market in harmony with economic development should be a healthy, stable market that can pull economic growth. In this paper, the periodicity of Yunnan real estate market and the pulling effect of economic growth are measured by means of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods and econometric methods. In view of the importance of the real estate industry in the economic development of Yunnan Province, this paper evaluates the health level of the real estate industry in Yunnan Province through bubble analysis, and analyzes the influencing factors affecting the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry. Firstly, this paper uses the single index method, based on the principal component synthesis multiple index method, calculates the running cycle of Yunnan real estate industry from 1996 to 2012, and systematically analyzes the cycle characteristics and causes of the real estate industry in Yunnan Province. The results show that: first, the real estate cycle is closely related to the macroeconomic cycle, but its recovery, boom period is faster than the economic cycle, its recession lags behind the economic cycle conclusion; second, The national macro-control policy has an obvious effect on the periodic fluctuation of real estate in Yunnan Province, encouraging policy response in the current period, restraining policy lag in 1-2 period response. Third, before 2009, the real estate cycle of Yunnan Province appeared synchronously with the wave peak of the national real estate cycle. The trough of Yunnan Province lagged behind the national trough for one year, but the peak and trough of Yunnan Province lagged behind the whole country for one year after 2009. Secondly, VAR model and Granger causality test are used to analyze the relationship between real estate industry and economic growth in Yunnan Province. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the real estate industry and economic growth in Yunnan Province. Every 1 percentage point increase in real estate investment can pull the economic growth by 0.496%. There is a two-way Granger causality between the two, and at the same time, The sustained positive impact of real estate investment on economic growth in Yunnan Province is greater than that on real estate industry by economic growth. Thirdly, using the relevant data from 1996 to 2012, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the real estate bubble in Kunming City, Yunnan Province and the whole country by using the five indexes that affect the real estate bubble. The study shows that the real estate industry in Yunnan Province was healthy from 1996 to 2012, and its health level was better than that of the whole country, but the real estate market in Kunming, the provincial capital city, was frothy in some years. Secondly, on the basis of constructing the index system of real estate bubble, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper makes a longitudinal and horizontal study and comparison of real estate bubble in Kunming, and makes a detailed analysis of its causes. Fourthly, this paper summarizes the previous analysis results, and then puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the healthy and coordinated development of real estate industry in Yunnan Province, and looks forward to the future research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F299.27

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