基于FCF的房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)預警模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-08 20:50
【摘要】：長期以來,房地產(chǎn)上市公司融資渠道單一,對銀行的依賴性較強,資產(chǎn)負債率居高不下。2010以來,國家加大了對房地產(chǎn)的調(diào)控,使得房地產(chǎn)公司生存環(huán)境發(fā)生較大變化,導致其發(fā)生財務(wù)危機的可能性增大。因此,通過建立房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的財務(wù)預警模型,以期及早發(fā)現(xiàn)并規(guī)避房地產(chǎn)上市公司可能發(fā)生的財務(wù)危機。 基于FCF的房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)預警模型的研究主要從以下方面展開,在對自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF有關(guān)理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上,指出自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF在財務(wù)預警模型研究中存在的優(yōu)勢,即FCF是一個綜合指標,反映出了企業(yè)的持續(xù)經(jīng)營能力和盈利能力；提出了在實際研究運用中計算公司自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF的方法；對房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機進行論述,描述了房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機發(fā)生的根本原因,指出了基于自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF的特別指標,分析了國家宏觀調(diào)控政策對房地產(chǎn)上市公司自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF的影響；通過設(shè)立有關(guān)假設(shè),對有關(guān)財務(wù)指標和非財務(wù)指標進行顯著性和相關(guān)性檢驗,選取了通過顯著性較強和不具有高度相關(guān)性的6個財務(wù)指標和1個非財務(wù)指標進入財務(wù)預警模型,并將房地產(chǎn)上市公司的數(shù)據(jù)通過SPSS軟件進行l(wèi)ogistic回歸,建立基于自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF的房地產(chǎn)上市公司的財務(wù)預警模型；財務(wù)預警模型進行檢驗,運用SPSS軟件對建立的財務(wù)預警模型相關(guān)系數(shù)進行綜合檢驗和模型擬合優(yōu)度的檢驗,并將計算出的40個檢驗樣本的有關(guān)財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)和搜集到的非財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)代入預警模型進行計算對模型的實際預測效果進行檢驗；提出房地產(chǎn)上市公司應(yīng)該從建立健全財務(wù)預警機制、強化自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF的監(jiān)控和改善財務(wù)管理模式三個方面提高應(yīng)對財務(wù)危機的能力。 研究表明,房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機發(fā)生的根本原因在于缺乏核心競爭力和完善的公司治理制度；宏觀政策對房地產(chǎn)上市公司的FCF有顯著影響,以流動比率、負債比率、存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率、FCF、帶息負債比和股權(quán)集中度為解釋變量構(gòu)建的財務(wù)預警模型在統(tǒng)計學上有良好的擬合度,實際檢驗效果也表明該財務(wù)預警模型能取得比較好的預警效果；房地產(chǎn)上市公司應(yīng)從加強對FCF的監(jiān)控等方面加強對財務(wù)風險的預測。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the financing channel of listed real estate companies is single, the dependence on banks is relatively strong, and the ratio of assets and liabilities remains high. Since 2010, the state has increased its regulation on real estate, which has made the living environment of real estate companies change greatly. It is more likely to cause a financial crisis. Therefore, by establishing the financial early warning model of real estate industry, we hope to detect and avoid the financial crisis that may occur in real estate listed companies as soon as possible. The research on the financial early-warning model of real estate listed companies based on FCF is mainly carried out from the following aspects. On the basis of the theoretical research on free cash flow (FCF), this paper points out the advantages of free cash flow (FCF) in the research of financial early-warning model. That is, FCF is a comprehensive index, which reflects the continuing management ability and profitability of the enterprise, puts forward the method of calculating the free cash flow FCF of the company in the actual research and application, and discusses the financial crisis of the listed real estate company. This paper describes the fundamental causes of the financial crisis of real estate listed companies, points out the special indicators based on free cash flow (FCF), and analyzes the influence of national macro-control policies on the free cash flow FCF of real estate listed companies. By setting up the relevant assumptions and testing the significance and correlation of the relevant financial indicators and non-financial indicators, six financial indicators and one non-financial index with strong significance and no high correlation are selected to enter the financial early warning model. The data of real estate listed companies are regressed by logistic through SPSS software, and the financial early-warning model of real estate listed companies based on free cash flow FCF is established, and the financial early-warning model is tested. By using SPSS software, the correlation coefficient of the established financial early warning model is tested synthetically and the goodness of fit of the model is tested. The financial data of 40 test samples and the collected non-financial data are added to the early-warning model to test the actual forecasting effect of the model, and the real estate listed companies should establish and improve the financial early-warning mechanism. Strengthen the monitoring of free cash flow FCF and improve the financial management mode to improve the ability to deal with financial crisis. The research shows that the fundamental cause of the financial crisis of listed real estate companies lies in the lack of core competitiveness and perfect corporate governance system, and the macro policy has a significant impact on the FCF of listed real estate companies, with the current ratio and debt ratio. The financial early-warning model with inventory turnover ratio FCFF ratio with interest and debt ratio and equity concentration as explanatory variable has good statistical fit. The actual test results also show that the financial early-warning model can achieve better early warning effect. Real estate listed companies should strengthen the financial risk prediction from the aspects of strengthening the monitoring of FCF.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4
本文編號：2258217
[Abstract]:For a long time, the financing channel of listed real estate companies is single, the dependence on banks is relatively strong, and the ratio of assets and liabilities remains high. Since 2010, the state has increased its regulation on real estate, which has made the living environment of real estate companies change greatly. It is more likely to cause a financial crisis. Therefore, by establishing the financial early warning model of real estate industry, we hope to detect and avoid the financial crisis that may occur in real estate listed companies as soon as possible. The research on the financial early-warning model of real estate listed companies based on FCF is mainly carried out from the following aspects. On the basis of the theoretical research on free cash flow (FCF), this paper points out the advantages of free cash flow (FCF) in the research of financial early-warning model. That is, FCF is a comprehensive index, which reflects the continuing management ability and profitability of the enterprise, puts forward the method of calculating the free cash flow FCF of the company in the actual research and application, and discusses the financial crisis of the listed real estate company. This paper describes the fundamental causes of the financial crisis of real estate listed companies, points out the special indicators based on free cash flow (FCF), and analyzes the influence of national macro-control policies on the free cash flow FCF of real estate listed companies. By setting up the relevant assumptions and testing the significance and correlation of the relevant financial indicators and non-financial indicators, six financial indicators and one non-financial index with strong significance and no high correlation are selected to enter the financial early warning model. The data of real estate listed companies are regressed by logistic through SPSS software, and the financial early-warning model of real estate listed companies based on free cash flow FCF is established, and the financial early-warning model is tested. By using SPSS software, the correlation coefficient of the established financial early warning model is tested synthetically and the goodness of fit of the model is tested. The financial data of 40 test samples and the collected non-financial data are added to the early-warning model to test the actual forecasting effect of the model, and the real estate listed companies should establish and improve the financial early-warning mechanism. Strengthen the monitoring of free cash flow FCF and improve the financial management mode to improve the ability to deal with financial crisis. The research shows that the fundamental cause of the financial crisis of listed real estate companies lies in the lack of core competitiveness and perfect corporate governance system, and the macro policy has a significant impact on the FCF of listed real estate companies, with the current ratio and debt ratio. The financial early-warning model with inventory turnover ratio FCFF ratio with interest and debt ratio and equity concentration as explanatory variable has good statistical fit. The actual test results also show that the financial early-warning model can achieve better early warning effect. Real estate listed companies should strengthen the financial risk prediction from the aspects of strengthening the monitoring of FCF.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4
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