發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-25 03:20

  本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格 + 財(cái)富效應(yīng)��； 參考：《重慶工商大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：深化房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)化改革是促進(jìn)消費(fèi)，擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需，拉動(dòng)投資增長(zhǎng)，保持國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速健康發(fā)展的有力措施。然而，隨著我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的繁榮發(fā)展，呈現(xiàn)出房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格居高不下和居民消費(fèi)率下降并存的局面，這已成為困擾我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要因素。房地產(chǎn)是我國(guó)居民家庭財(cái)富的重要組成部分，為了弄清房地產(chǎn)與居民消費(fèi)之間內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，，認(rèn)識(shí)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)影響居民消費(fèi)的機(jī)理，驗(yàn)證房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)財(cái)富效應(yīng)是否得到有效發(fā)揮，本文以重慶市為例，研究一個(gè)特定區(qū)域的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)鼐用裣�費(fèi)的影響。 本文梳理了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)影響居民消費(fèi)相關(guān)理論，分析了重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和居民消費(fèi)情況，在此基礎(chǔ)上選取重慶市1999-2012年的季度時(shí)間序列，通過(guò)協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和構(gòu)建向量誤差修正模型，從整體上實(shí)證分析房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響；為了細(xì)分這種影響在不同收入階層中的區(qū)別，進(jìn)一步選取重慶市2000-2012年不同收入階層居民的年度數(shù)據(jù)，通過(guò)建立面板模型具體分析房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)對(duì)各收入階層居民消費(fèi)的影響差異。時(shí)間序列的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：可支配收入是影響居民消費(fèi)最主要的因素；在短期，重慶市房?jī)r(jià)上漲的財(cái)富效應(yīng)大于擠出效應(yīng)，促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)；在長(zhǎng)期，重慶市房?jī)r(jià)上漲的財(cái)富效應(yīng)小于擠出效應(yīng)，抑制居民消費(fèi)；面板數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：重慶市房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲對(duì)低收入和高收入兩個(gè)階層的居民消費(fèi)有一定的促進(jìn)作用，對(duì)中等偏下收入、中等收入和中等偏上三個(gè)收入階層的居民消費(fèi)有明顯的抑制作用。接下來(lái)對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行原因分析，并探討了我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展過(guò)程中存在的問(wèn)題，主要包括房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供需結(jié)構(gòu)不均衡、房?jī)r(jià)上漲過(guò)快、制度存在缺陷、社會(huì)保障不健全等。最后，從發(fā)揮房地產(chǎn)財(cái)富效應(yīng)、緩解擠出效應(yīng)和重視房地產(chǎn)民生保障功能、區(qū)別各收入階層調(diào)控措施幾個(gè)方面提出相關(guān)的對(duì)策啟示。
[Abstract]:Deepening the market-oriented reform of real estate is a powerful measure to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, stimulate investment growth, and maintain the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the national economy. However, with the prosperity and development of the real estate market in our country, the high real estate price and the decline of the resident consumption rate coexist, which has become an important factor perplexing the economic growth of our country. Real estate is an important part of household wealth in our country. In order to understand the internal relationship between real estate and household consumption, we can understand the mechanism that the change of real estate price affects residents' consumption. This paper takes Chongqing as an example to study the effect of real estate price change on local residents' consumption. This article combs the real estate price change influence resident consumption correlation theory, analyzes the Chongqing real estate market development present situation and the resident consumption situation, on this basis selects Chongqing 1999-2012 quarterly time series, Through cointegration test and vector error correction model, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of real estate price change on residents' consumption in order to subdivide the difference between different income groups. This paper further selects the annual data of residents of different income groups in Chongqing from 2000 to 2012, and analyzes the difference of real estate price changes on the consumption of residents of different income classes by establishing panel model. The empirical results of time series show that: disposable income is the most important factor affecting residents' consumption; in the short term, the wealth effect of rising house prices in Chongqing is greater than that of crowding out effect, and promoting residents' consumption; in the long run, The wealth effect of housing price rise in Chongqing is smaller than that of crowding-out effect, and the empirical results of panel data show that the rise of real estate price in Chongqing can promote the consumption of both low-income and high-income groups. The consumption of middle income, middle income and middle income groups has obvious restraining effect. Then it analyzes the reasons of the empirical results and discusses the problems existing in the development of the real estate market in our country, including the imbalance of the supply and demand structure of the real estate market, the rapid rise of the house price, the defects of the system, the imperfect social security and so on. Finally, this paper puts forward some relevant countermeasures from exerting the wealth effect of real estate, alleviating the crowding out effect, paying attention to the function of ensuring the livelihood of the real estate, and differentiating the adjustment and control measures of various income classes.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F126.1

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