發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-19 05:21

  本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格 + 信貸約束��； 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：回顧現(xiàn)代歷史上各國(guó)爆發(fā)的多次經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融危機(jī)，從上世紀(jì)30年代的美國(guó)大蕭條、20世紀(jì)90年代日本的金融危機(jī)，到1997年?yáng)|南亞經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，再到由2007年美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)而引發(fā)的全球金融危機(jī)，都傳遞著這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)：在金融市場(chǎng)日益繁榮、金融工具日益多樣化的今天，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響越來(lái)越大。 近年來(lái)，我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)上升的趨勢(shì)，從1998年中央的23號(hào)文件確立房地產(chǎn)業(yè)為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)，到2003年的18號(hào)文件確立房地產(chǎn)業(yè)為我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)成為了在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中與眾多行業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)度高、帶動(dòng)性強(qiáng)的產(chǎn)業(yè)，其價(jià)格的穩(wěn)定與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行息息相關(guān)。然而房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展離不開(kāi)金融市場(chǎng)的支持，在金融市場(chǎng)中，房地產(chǎn)信貸是銀行信貸的重要組成部分。房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、銀行信貸約束與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)是否存在互動(dòng)關(guān)系？其互動(dòng)機(jī)制和影響特征又是如何？在當(dāng)前人民幣匯率不斷升值的情況下，匯率的波動(dòng)是否能對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、信貸約束和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系造成影響？這些問(wèn)題都是本文試圖分析的內(nèi)容。 有關(guān)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、信貸約束和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)互動(dòng)機(jī)制的研究，國(guó)內(nèi)外大多數(shù)文獻(xiàn)側(cè)重于研究這三者當(dāng)中兩兩之間的相互關(guān)系，而把這些因素綜合在一起，考慮其互動(dòng)機(jī)制的文獻(xiàn)則較少。與此同時(shí)，在實(shí)證分析部分，較多文獻(xiàn)集中于房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、利率和GDP互動(dòng)關(guān)系的研究，鮮有文獻(xiàn)加入?yún)R率因素。而本文立足于開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)，把匯率因素作為重要約束條件加入模型，從實(shí)證分析的角度驗(yàn)證了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、利率、匯率和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系。 本文在充分研究了前人文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，首先整理和分析了我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、信貸市場(chǎng)、匯率制度改革和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，同時(shí)還回顧和總結(jié)了國(guó)外部分國(guó)家的發(fā)展歷史和經(jīng)驗(yàn)。 其次，從理論分析的角度出發(fā)，對(duì)開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、信貸約束和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系和機(jī)制進(jìn)行了模型研究和定性分析。理論分析得出的結(jié)論認(rèn)為：經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)、信貸約束條件的放松、匯率的升值對(duì)一國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上漲有促進(jìn)作用。 再次，通過(guò)收集和整理1998-2011年我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、一年期存款利率、人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率和GDP的季度數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用基于VAR模型的Granger因果檢驗(yàn)、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、向量誤差修正模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析和方差分解等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法，從實(shí)證分析的角度驗(yàn)證了互動(dòng)關(guān)系的存在和各變量之間的互動(dòng)機(jī)制。得出的實(shí)證結(jié)果認(rèn)為：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、GDP、利率和匯率之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系，在短期，僅有匯率和利率存在反向的誤差修正機(jī)制；房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)之間存在雙向互動(dòng)關(guān)系，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率主要在長(zhǎng)期影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格，而在短期房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有正向影響，但是在長(zhǎng)期，持續(xù)上漲的房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響；房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與信貸約束存在雙向互動(dòng)關(guān)系，且利率政策對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的調(diào)控效果主要在長(zhǎng)期顯著；信貸約束與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)存在雙向互動(dòng)關(guān)系，信貸約束條件的緊縮會(huì)在長(zhǎng)期對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有顯著的負(fù)向影響，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在短期對(duì)利率變動(dòng)有正向影響；匯率對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在短期有顯著影響，而房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)匯率的反饋?zhàn)饔脛t較小，匯率主要受國(guó)內(nèi)利率水平的影響。 最后，根據(jù)理論分析和實(shí)證分析得出的結(jié)論，并且結(jié)合我國(guó)具體國(guó)情，在貨幣政策的制定和實(shí)施、房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策的選擇、銀行信貸市場(chǎng)管理和金融產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新、境外資本流入的管理等方面提出了具體的政策建議，以促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、信貸市場(chǎng)、外匯市場(chǎng)和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、信貸約束與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系十分復(fù)雜，但是受筆者的能力和數(shù)據(jù)可得性的局限，本文難免對(duì)一些問(wèn)題的研究不夠深入和全面：比如房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)與監(jiān)管當(dāng)局金融監(jiān)管、金融穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系；在研究視野方面，可以將研究進(jìn)一步拓展至比較不同國(guó)家在不同金融體制下，信貸約束、房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)互動(dòng)關(guān)系的差異，或者研究我國(guó)不同地區(qū)三者之間的互動(dòng)機(jī)制和影響特征差異。
[Abstract]:Looking back on the many economic and financial crises that erupted in various countries in modern history , the financial crisis of the United States in the 1930s , the financial crisis in Japan in the 1990s , the economic crisis in Southeast Asia in the 1990s , and the global financial crisis caused by the American subprime crisis in 2007 , have passed the fact that the fluctuation of the real estate price has more and more influence on the macro - economy today in the increasingly prosperous financial markets and the increasingly diversified financial instruments .

In recent years , real estate prices in our country have been rising continuously . From the 23 documents in central China in 1998 , the real estate industry is the pillar industry of our national economy , and the real estate industry has become an important part of our national economy . However , the development of real estate industry is inseparable from the financial market . In the financial market , real estate credit is an important part of bank credit .

The research on real estate price , credit constraint and macro - economic interaction mechanism , most of the literatures at home and abroad focus on the study of the relationship between the two of these three factors , and the literature of the interaction mechanism is less . At the same time , in the empirical analysis part , more documents are focused on the relationship between real estate price , interest rate and GDP . In the meantime , based on the open economy , the exchange rate factor is added to the model as the important constraint condition , and the interaction between real estate price , interest rate , exchange rate and macro - economy is verified from the perspective of empirical analysis .

Based on the study of the previous literature , this paper first sorts out and analyses the current situation of China ' s real estate market , credit market , exchange rate system reform and macro - economy , and also reviews and summarizes the development history and experience of some foreign countries .

Secondly , from the angle of theory analysis , the model research and qualitative analysis are carried out on the relationship and mechanism of real estate price , credit constraint and macro - economy under open economy . The conclusion is that economic growth , relaxation of credit constraint and appreciation of exchange rate can promote the rise of real estate price in a country .

Thirdly , by collecting and arranging the quarterly data of real estate prices , one - year deposit interest rate , real effective exchange rate and GDP of our country from 1998 to 2011 , we have verified the existence of mutual relations and the interaction mechanism among the variables from the perspective of empirical analysis . The empirical results show that there is a long - term stable cointegration between real estate price , GDP , interest rate and exchange rate .
There is a two - way interaction between the real estate price and the macro - economy , the economic growth rate mainly affects the real estate price for a long period of time , but in the short - term real estate price increase has a positive impact on the economic growth , but in the long - term , the rising housing price will have a negative impact on the economic growth ;
There are two - way interaction between real estate price and credit constraint , and the effect of interest rate policy on real estate price is mainly in the long term ;
There is a two - way interaction between credit constraints and macro - economy , and the contraction of credit constraints will have a significant negative impact on economic growth in the long run . Economic growth has a positive impact on the change of interest rates in the short term ;
The exchange rate has a significant impact on price fluctuation and macro - economic growth in the short term , while the rate of exchange rate feedback is smaller , and the exchange rate is mainly affected by domestic interest rate level .

Finally , according to the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis , and combining with the country ' s specific national conditions , specific policy suggestions are put forward in the formulation and implementation of monetary policy , the selection of real estate regulation policy , bank credit market management and financial product innovation , the management of overseas capital inflow and so on , so as to promote the harmonious development of real estate market , credit market , foreign exchange market and macro - economy .

The relationship between real estate prices , credit constraints and macro - economy is very complex , but limited by the author ' s ability and the availability of data , the author ' s research on some problems is not enough and comprehensive : for example , the relationship between the fluctuation of real estate prices and the financial supervision and financial stability of the supervisory authority ;
In the field of research , the research can be further expanded to compare the differences between different countries in different financial systems , credit constraints , real estate prices and macroeconomic interactions , or to study the interaction mechanism among different regions of our country and influence the difference of characteristics .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F224

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