發(fā)布時間：2018-04-19 01:37

  本文選題：動力煤 + 價格波動��； 參考：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：動力煤又稱燃料用煤、燃燒用煤，其查明資源儲量占煤炭查明資源儲量的75.83%，是我國煤炭的主體。2012年，我國進(jìn)口動力煤1.01億噸，增長83.8%。加上經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，價格雙軌制取消等因素，國內(nèi)動力煤價格波動日益劇烈，深刻影響物價系統(tǒng)，對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重沖擊，直接威脅一些煤炭企業(yè)，資源城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會安全。本文依托“鄂爾多斯盆地礦產(chǎn)資源區(qū)劃研究”與“鄂爾多斯能源礦產(chǎn)、非能源化工礦產(chǎn)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價”兩個地調(diào)項(xiàng)目，選擇2002年以來動力煤價格、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長等月度動態(tài)數(shù)據(jù)，以鄂爾多斯市為實(shí)證，研究動力煤價格波動及其對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響問題，本論文取得了以下進(jìn)展： 將動力煤價格作為獨(dú)立對象進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)性的定量化研究，結(jié)果表明2002年1月—2013年2月動力煤價格波動軌跡經(jīng)歷了3個完整的收縮性周期和1個不完整的回升周期，周期平均長度約30個月，擴(kuò)收比為0.69。動力煤價格波動主要以能源替代作用為主，其中國外動力煤價格和石油價格的貢獻(xiàn)率分別為18.0%和14.05%，市場供給與工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率分別為11.31%與9.46%，而動力煤貿(mào)易中的進(jìn)口比例貢獻(xiàn)率僅為2.76%，因此現(xiàn)階段可適度加大動力煤進(jìn)口規(guī)模。 動力煤價格波動并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的格蘭杰原因，且與投資關(guān)系不明顯，其與消費(fèi)存在單向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系、而與進(jìn)口、出口均存在雙向因果關(guān)系。動力煤價格與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長及其構(gòu)成要素存在三個層次關(guān)系：(1)動力煤價格波動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、消費(fèi)、進(jìn)口與出口間存在長期均衡關(guān)系；(2)動力煤價格波動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、消費(fèi)、進(jìn)口與出口在滯后彈性與傳導(dǎo)強(qiáng)度上存在顯著的非對稱性特點(diǎn)。其中經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對動力煤價格的滯后彈性為-0.11，傳導(dǎo)強(qiáng)度為18.18%，而后者對前者的滯后彈性為2.41，，傳導(dǎo)強(qiáng)度為3.92%；(3)動力煤價格波動對消費(fèi)、進(jìn)口、出口的動態(tài)沖擊呈現(xiàn)明顯的階段性，存在2004年與2008年兩個拐點(diǎn)。 鄂爾多斯市依靠動力煤開采實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長奇跡，然而2012年來動力煤價格的大幅下降使其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重放緩，加速民間借貸資金鏈的斷裂與房地產(chǎn)泡沫的破滅，使其規(guī)劃轉(zhuǎn)型依托的裝備制造等產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展受阻，阻礙了其產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的難度。因此需要采取建立動力煤期貨市場、發(fā)展替代能源、提高進(jìn)口比例、控制高能耗產(chǎn)業(yè)盲目發(fā)展，加大勘查力度等措施，避免動力煤價格出現(xiàn)過頻過大波動。
[Abstract]:Thermal coal, also known as fuel coal, combustion coal, its identified reserves of coal resources accounted for 75.83 percent of the resources identified reserves, is the main part of coal in China. In 2012, China imported 101 million tons of thermal coal, an increase of 83.8 percent.Coupled with factors such as slowing economic growth and cancelling the two-track price system, domestic thermal coal prices are fluctuating more and more sharply, which profoundly affect the price system, and have a serious impact on the economic operation of our country, and directly threaten some coal enterprises.The economic and social security of resource cities.Based on "study on Mineral Resources regionalization in Ordos Basin" and "Technical and Economic Evaluation of Energy Minerals and Non-Energy Chemical Minerals in Ordos", this paper selects monthly dynamic data of thermal coal price and economic growth since 2002.Taking Ordos city as an example, the paper studies the fluctuation of thermal coal price and its impact on economic growth. The paper has made the following progress:The systematic quantitative research on thermal coal price as an independent object shows that the fluctuation track of thermal coal price experienced three complete contraction cycles and one incomplete recovery cycle from January 2002 to February 2013.The average length of the cycle is about 30 months, and the expanded ratio is 0.69.The price fluctuation of thermal coal is dominated by energy substitution.The contribution rates of foreign thermal coal price and oil price are 18.0% and 14.05 respectively. The contribution rates of market supply and industrial economic growth are 11.31% and 9.46% respectively, while the contribution rate of import ratio in thermal coal trade is only 2.76%.Increase the power coal import scale.The fluctuation of thermal coal price is not the Granger cause of economic growth, and its relationship with investment is not obvious. It has one-way Granger causality with consumption, but two-way causality with import and export.There are three levels of relationship between thermal coal price and economic growth and its components: 1) fluctuation of thermal coal price and economic growth, long term equilibrium relationship between consumption, import and export; fluctuation of thermal coal price and economic growth; consumption.There is significant asymmetry between import and export in hysteresis elasticity and conduction strength.Among them, the lag elasticity of economic growth to the price of thermal coal is -0.11, and the conduction strength is 18.18, while the latter has a lag elasticity of 2.41 and a conduction strength of 3.92%) the dynamic impact on consumption, import and export of the price fluctuation of thermal coal is obviously phased.There are two inflection points in 2004 and 2008.Ordos relies on thermal coal mining to achieve a miracle of economic growth. However, the sharp drop in thermal coal prices since 2012 has caused a serious slowdown in its economic growth, accelerating the breakup of the private lending chain and the bursting of the real estate bubble.The development of equipment manufacturing and other industries which make its planning transition is blocked, which hinders the difficulty of its industrial transformation.Therefore, it is necessary to take measures such as establishing the future market of thermal coal, developing alternative energy sources, increasing the import ratio, controlling the blind development of high energy consumption industry, and increasing the intensity of exploration, so as to avoid excessive frequency and large fluctuations in the price of thermal coal.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124.1;F426.21

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本文編號：1771038