發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-23 09:47

  本文選題：養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金 + 制度因素　； 參考：《西南政法大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度從20世紀(jì)80年代開始試行到90年代建立統(tǒng)賬結(jié)合制度以來(lái)，取得了良好的發(fā)展。然而隨著我國(guó)人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化，人口老齡化社會(huì)的到來(lái)對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展形成了極大的挑戰(zhàn)。目前，我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的基金收入與支出及累計(jì)結(jié)余都保持穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，但支出的增長(zhǎng)速度有快于收入增長(zhǎng)速度的趨勢(shì)，并且由于各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況及人口因素的不同，各地的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的收支狀況也存在較大差距。在剔除財(cái)政對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的補(bǔ)貼后，已有部分省份出現(xiàn)收不抵支的狀況，基金的可持續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)壓力大。 本文在對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)分析的基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建了我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)收支問(wèn)題的因果關(guān)系圖及流程圖，在一定的假設(shè)基礎(chǔ)上模擬了2011—2050年基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金賬戶規(guī)模的變化情況。同時(shí)考察了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的制度因素：養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)繳費(fèi)率、養(yǎng)老金替代率、制度覆蓋面及退休年齡調(diào)整的情況下養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)規(guī)模的變化情況。模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示，若維持現(xiàn)的制度參數(shù)不變，在2043年前后，基本養(yǎng)老金將會(huì)出現(xiàn)年度收支缺口，后期隨著老齡人口的增多，基金缺口越來(lái)越大。覆蓋率的提高能顯著改善當(dāng)期的基金收支狀況，但也會(huì)帶來(lái)后期的支付壓力。待遇水平的下降有利于制度的可持續(xù)性，但對(duì)保障職工退休后的生活產(chǎn)生不利的影響。延遲退休能在一定程度上緩解養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的支付壓力，但并不能解決基金收不抵支的困境。若待遇水平提高到合適水平，且制度覆蓋范圍及退休年齡的調(diào)緩慢增加時(shí)，能保持基金結(jié)余較長(zhǎng)的增長(zhǎng)期。對(duì)于制度因素調(diào)整的效果而言，在考慮基金投資收益的情況下，，快速調(diào)整的政策效果要優(yōu)于緩慢調(diào)整。通過(guò)比較基金年度收支與累計(jì)結(jié)余可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，基金投資收益水平的提高對(duì)于制度的可持續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)至關(guān)重要。 根據(jù)本文的研究結(jié)果，提出了降低養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)繳費(fèi)率，合理調(diào)整退休年齡，完善養(yǎng)老金計(jì)發(fā)辦法及拓寬養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的投資渠道，增強(qiáng)收益率以增強(qiáng)其保值增值能力的措施，以促進(jìn)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China has made good progress since the beginning of the eighties of the 20th century and the establishment of the unified accounting system in the 1990s. However, with the change of population structure in our country, the arrival of aging society has posed a great challenge to the sustainable development of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China. At present, the fund income, expenditure and accumulated balance of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in our country are increasing steadily, but the growth rate of expenditure is faster than that of income, and because of the different economic situation and population factors in different regions, The income and expenditure of endowment insurance fund of each place also exists big disparity. After excluding the financial subsidy to the old-age insurance, some provinces have a situation of non-payment, and the sustainable operation of the fund is under great pressure. Based on the analysis of the basic theory of endowment insurance, this paper constructs the causality diagram and flow chart of the income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in China. On the basis of certain assumptions, the paper simulates the changes in the size of the basic pension fund account in 2011-2050. At the same time, the paper examines the institutional factors of pension insurance, such as the contribution rate, the replacement rate, the coverage of the system and the change of the scale of the pension insurance under the condition of the adjustment of the retirement age. The simulation results show that if the current system parameters remain unchanged, there will be a gap in the annual income and expenditure of the basic pension around 2043. In the latter stage, with the increase of the aging population, the fund gap will become larger and bigger. The increase in coverage can significantly improve the current fund balance, but will also bring about late payment pressure. The decline of the treatment level is beneficial to the sustainability of the system, but it has a negative impact on the life of the employees after retirement. The delay in retirement can alleviate the payment pressure of pension fund to some extent, but it can not solve the fund's dilemma of over-charging. If the level of treatment is raised to the appropriate level and the coverage of the system and the adjustment of retirement age increase slowly, the longer growth period of fund balance can be maintained. For the effect of institutional adjustment, the policy effect of quick adjustment is better than that of slow adjustment when considering the investment income of fund. By comparing the annual income and expenditure of the fund with the accumulated balance, it can be found that the improvement of the investment income level of the fund is very important to the sustainable operation of the system. According to the research results of this paper, the paper puts forward some measures to reduce the contribution rate of pension insurance, to adjust the retirement age reasonably, to perfect the method of calculating and issuing pension, to widen the investment channel of pension insurance fund, and to strengthen the rate of return in order to enhance its ability to maintain and increase its value. In order to promote the sustainable development of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67

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