從匯率和政策變動看我國貿(mào)易減緩的原因
本文選題:貿(mào)易減緩 + 匯率波動; 參考:《對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學》2017年博士論文
【摘要】:全球經(jīng)濟復蘇乏力,國際貿(mào)易增長停滯。同時,中國外貿(mào)出口形勢嚴峻,不僅受到國際經(jīng)濟蕭條、政治格局多變的影響,還有來自國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的供給側(cè)改革的壓力。西方國家的反全球化情緒和國際貿(mào)易保護主義勢力的抬頭,也為中國對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易活動平添了不安的因素。貿(mào)易增長的減緩不僅意味著福利的永久損失,而世界貿(mào)易的零增長通常還是全球衰退即將到來的信號。近二十多年來,加工貿(mào)易出口一直是我國參與全球價值鏈分工及貿(mào)易出口的重要方式和經(jīng)濟增長的重要引擎,為國民就業(yè)增長、國際收支平衡、生產(chǎn)率提高等貢獻巨大,其穩(wěn)定發(fā)展和有序轉(zhuǎn)型事關(guān)國泰民安,以其作為切入點研究中國貿(mào)易減緩的影響因素意義重大。本文通過梳理全球貿(mào)易減緩的成因及研究范式,對中國貿(mào)易減緩趨勢產(chǎn)生影響因素從四個方面進行了研判,著重分析了1995年至2015年經(jīng)濟政策不確定和人民幣匯率變動對我國貿(mào)易部門出口行為的影響,并對國際經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系的全球治理格局構(gòu)建問題進行了評述。外部需求減弱和壁壘性因素構(gòu)成了全球貿(mào)易減緩的周期性的原因,價值鏈的重構(gòu)和收縮則成為其結(jié)構(gòu)性的原因,國際間投資行為下的價格及匯率因素則提供了短期動能。中國貿(mào)易出口放緩同樣受三類因素的影響:一方面,由于中國為最大貨物貿(mào)易輸出國,其內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型調(diào)整對進口的需求的下降構(gòu)成全球需求下降重要的一環(huán);另一方面,我國全球價值鏈的調(diào)整轉(zhuǎn)移和國內(nèi)替代政策影響下導致的外商主導下的加工貿(mào)易的強烈失速是導致中國貿(mào)易增長減速的直接原因。貿(mào)易政策不確定性的增加(如出口退稅的調(diào)整、貿(mào)易協(xié)定退出等),會導致企業(yè)擇推遲投資和出口決策,對貿(mào)易增長造成傷害;而經(jīng)濟政策不確定性不僅影響企業(yè)決策,還會通過消費者偏好等途徑,影響貿(mào)易增長和經(jīng)濟增長的可能,文中實證結(jié)果表明其對貿(mào)易規(guī)模和貿(mào)易增速的滯后的負面影響是明顯和顯著的。匯率升貶變化和波動對貿(mào)易出口規(guī)模的影響在觀點及實證結(jié)果不一的重要原因是貿(mào)易方式對匯率變動反應(yīng)不一致所致。本文在分析了加工貿(mào)易下匯率傳導機制(價格傳導和價格效應(yīng))的基礎(chǔ)上,通過ARDL門限檢驗實證分析了人民幣匯率對我國兩種貿(mào)易方式下的出口行為的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)匯率變化與波動對一般貿(mào)易的影響要明顯且顯著于對加工貿(mào)易的影響。應(yīng)對全球貿(mào)易減緩,就要研究發(fā)現(xiàn)其中所反應(yīng)出的經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,并采取相應(yīng)的制度設(shè)計予以配合,而中國在新常態(tài)下施行開放新戰(zhàn)略,構(gòu)建國際治理新格局,正是在全球貿(mào)易和金融格局急劇變動的環(huán)境下做出的有擔當?shù)倪x擇。
[Abstract]:The global economic recovery has been sluggish and the growth of international trade has stagnated. At the same time, the serious situation of China's foreign trade export is not only affected by the international economic depression and the changeable political pattern, but also by the pressure of supply-side reform from the transformation and upgrading of domestic industries. The anti-globalization sentiment in western countries and the rise of international trade protectionism have also added unease to China's foreign economic and trade activities. A slowdown in trade growth not only means a permanent loss of welfare, but zero growth in world trade is usually a sign of an impending global recession. In the past twenty years, the export of processing trade has been an important way for our country to participate in the division of labor in the global value chain and the export of trade, as well as an important engine of economic growth. It has contributed greatly to the growth of national employment, the balance of international payments, the improvement of productivity, and so on. Its stable development and orderly transformation are of great importance to the stability of the country and the people's security. It is of great significance to study the influencing factors of China's trade slowdown from the point of view of its entry point. By combing the causes of global trade slowdown and its research paradigm, this paper makes a study of the influencing factors of China's trade slowdown trend from four aspects. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of uncertainty of economic policy and RMB exchange rate change on the export behavior of China's trade sector from 1995 to 2015, and comments on the construction of the global governance pattern of international economic and trade relations. The weakening of external demand and barrier factors constitute the cyclical causes of global trade slowdown, the restructuring and contraction of the value chain are the structural reasons, and the price and exchange rate factors under the behavior of international investment provide short-term kinetic energy. The slowdown in China's trade exports is also affected by three factors: on the one hand, as China is the largest exporter of goods, the decline in demand for imports due to the restructuring of its internal economy constitutes an important part of the decline in global demand. The direct reason for the deceleration of China's trade growth is the adjustment and transfer of global value chain in China and the strong stall of processing trade under the influence of the domestic substitution policy. The increase of trade policy uncertainty (such as the adjustment of export tax rebate, the withdrawal of trade agreement, etc.) will cause enterprises to delay their investment and export decisions, thus harming trade growth, while economic policy uncertainty will not only affect enterprises' decision making. It will also influence the possibility of trade growth and economic growth through the way of consumer preference. The empirical results show that the negative impact on the scale of trade and the lag of trade growth is obvious and significant. The effect of exchange rate fluctuation and fluctuation on the scale of trade exports is due to the inconsistent response of trade mode to exchange rate change. Based on the analysis of the exchange rate transmission mechanism (price transmission and price effect) under processing trade, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate on the export behavior of China under two kinds of trade modes through the ARDL threshold test. It is found that the effect of exchange rate change and fluctuation on general trade is more obvious than that on processing trade. In order to cope with the slowdown of global trade, we should study and discover the changes in economic structure reflected therein, and adopt corresponding institutional design to coordinate it, while China should implement a new strategy of opening up under the new normal state and construct a new pattern of international governance. It is in an environment of dramatic changes in global trade and finance that there are responsible choices.
【學位授予單位】:對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】:博士
【學位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:F832.6;F752
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