我國工業(yè)碳解鎖進程及影響因素研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-13 15:20
【摘要】：我國正處在“十三五”建設的開局之年,工業(yè)經濟面臨發(fā)展和減排的雙重壓力。但改革開放以來逐步形成的以重化工業(yè)為基礎的產業(yè)結構和以化石能源為主的能源結構導致我國碳排放水平居高不下,工業(yè)低碳化轉型困難重重。盡管2015年我國取得了碳排放量下降1.5%的階段性減排成果,但從總量上看仍不容樂觀。工業(yè)部門作為我國的能源消耗大戶,其占總消耗量的比重基本在2/3以上。2005年,我國工業(yè)部門的碳排放水平為270096.72萬噸,2014年上升到395968.64萬噸,經濟發(fā)展明顯高碳化�？梢哉f我國工業(yè)行業(yè)發(fā)展已經陷入“碳鎖定”。因此,研究如何突破碳鎖定(Carbon Lock-in),加快工業(yè)碳解鎖進程,對工業(yè)產業(yè)的低碳化轉型和我國減排目標的完成有至關重要的影響,也是我國實現低碳發(fā)展的不二法則。此外,我國地域廣大,各地區(qū)的經濟發(fā)展水平和自然資源稟賦存在較大差異,各省之間的碳解鎖狀態(tài)也不盡一致,以省域為研究對象,能更好地因地制宜地尋求碳解鎖對策。本文以數據收集和計算為基礎,以趨勢分析—影響因素—對策建議為主線,以2005到2014年為時間節(jié)點,以30個省市為研究對象。首先介紹了我國工業(yè)碳解鎖問題的研究背景與意義,通過文獻回顧和梳理相關理論基礎為下文進一步分析做了理論鋪墊。接著,從國域、區(qū)域和省域三個層面對我國的工業(yè)碳排放現狀和特點做了較為詳細的分析,在此基礎上運用脫鉤模型,對我國30個省市工業(yè)行業(yè)的解鎖效應做了定量判斷。然后引入計量經濟學分析方法,利用面板數據模型,從經濟規(guī)模、技術進步、能源結構等角度,對全國和分地區(qū)的工業(yè)碳解鎖影響因素做了實證分析,并在實證基礎上提出對策建議。通過研究分析,本文主要有以下結論:(1)根據經濟發(fā)展水平和碳解鎖情況,可大致將30個省市分為三大類:經濟發(fā)展水平較高且多表現為解鎖的北京、上海等6個省市,說明經濟發(fā)展質量較高;經濟還在快速發(fā)展階段、碳解鎖狀態(tài)波動較大的山西、內蒙古、遼寧等共計11個省市,減排壓力較大;經濟還在快速發(fā)展階段、解鎖狀態(tài)相對穩(wěn)定的河北、安徽、福建等共13個省市,多表現為經濟水平與碳排放雙增長。(2)影響因素實證方面,從全國看,能源消費結構是工業(yè)碳排放強度的主要推動因素,能源利用效率、勞均產出和研發(fā)投入比重對碳排放強度的抑制作用依次減弱;從分區(qū)域看,各解釋變量的影響與全國的大同小異,作用方向基本一致。特別注意到,Ⅲ類地區(qū)的研發(fā)強度與碳排放強度呈正相關,與預期相反,可能的解釋是研發(fā)投入主要用在了促進工業(yè)產出增長方面而不是節(jié)能減排上。最后在實證結果的基礎上,從技術、制度以及地區(qū)差異化角度提出了促進低碳化、實現工業(yè)碳解鎖的相關建議。
[Abstract]:China is at the beginning of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, and the industrial economy is under the double pressure of development and emission reduction. However, the industrial structure based on heavy chemical industry and the energy structure based on fossil energy gradually formed since the reform and opening up led to the high level of carbon emissions in China and the difficulties in the transition of industrial low-carbon industry. Although China has achieved a 1.5% reduction in carbon emissions in 2015, but the total amount is still not optimistic. As a major consumer of energy consumption in China, the industrial sector accounts for more than 2 / 3 of the total consumption. In 2005, the level of carbon emissions in China's industrial sector was 2.7009672 billion tons, which rose to 3.9596864 billion tons in 2014. It can be said that China's industrial development has fallen into a "carbon lock." Therefore, the research on how to break through carbon locking (Carbon Lock-in) and speed up the process of industrial carbon unlocking has a vital impact on the low-carbon transformation of industrial industry and the completion of China's emission reduction target, and is also the rule of achieving low-carbon development in China. In addition, there are great differences in the level of economic development and natural resource endowment among different regions in China, and the carbon unlocking status among provinces is not the same. Taking the provincial area as the research object, the countermeasures of carbon unlocking can be better sought according to the local conditions. Based on data collection and calculation, this paper takes trend analysis, influencing factors and countermeasures and suggestions as the main line, taking 2005 to 2014 as the time node and 30 provinces and cities as research objects. Firstly, this paper introduces the research background and significance of the industrial carbon unlocking problem in China, and makes a theoretical foundation for further analysis by reviewing the literature and combing the relevant theoretical basis. Then, the paper makes a detailed analysis of the current situation and characteristics of industrial carbon emissions in China from three levels: national, regional and provincial, and makes a quantitative judgment on the unlocking effect of industrial industries in 30 provinces and cities of China based on the decoupling model. Then, by introducing econometric analysis method, using panel data model, from the perspective of economic scale, technological progress and energy structure, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of industrial carbon unlocking in China and in different regions. On the basis of empirical analysis, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Through research and analysis, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) according to the level of economic development and the situation of carbon release, 30 provinces and cities can be roughly divided into three categories: Beijing, Shanghai and other 6 provinces and cities with a high level of economic development. It shows that the quality of economic development is high; The economy is still in the rapid development stage, the carbon release state fluctuates greatly Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and so on altogether 11 provinces and cities, reduces the emission pressure to be big; The economy is still in the stage of rapid development. 13 provinces and cities, such as Hebei, Anhui, Fujian and so on, which are relatively stable in unlocked state, mostly show that the economic level and carbon emissions are both increasing. (2) the empirical analysis of the influencing factors, from the national point of view, Energy consumption structure is the main driving factor of industrial carbon emission intensity. From the sub-regional point of view, the influence of each explanatory variable is similar to that of the whole country, and the direction of action is basically the same. It is noted in particular that R & D intensity is positively correlated with carbon emission intensity in category III areas, contrary to expectations, the possible explanation is that R & D investment is mainly used to promote industrial output growth rather than energy conservation and emission reduction. Finally, based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to promote low carbonization and realize industrial carbon unlocking from the point of view of technology, institution and regional difference.
【學位授予單位】：江南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X22;F424
本文編號：2376757
[Abstract]:China is at the beginning of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, and the industrial economy is under the double pressure of development and emission reduction. However, the industrial structure based on heavy chemical industry and the energy structure based on fossil energy gradually formed since the reform and opening up led to the high level of carbon emissions in China and the difficulties in the transition of industrial low-carbon industry. Although China has achieved a 1.5% reduction in carbon emissions in 2015, but the total amount is still not optimistic. As a major consumer of energy consumption in China, the industrial sector accounts for more than 2 / 3 of the total consumption. In 2005, the level of carbon emissions in China's industrial sector was 2.7009672 billion tons, which rose to 3.9596864 billion tons in 2014. It can be said that China's industrial development has fallen into a "carbon lock." Therefore, the research on how to break through carbon locking (Carbon Lock-in) and speed up the process of industrial carbon unlocking has a vital impact on the low-carbon transformation of industrial industry and the completion of China's emission reduction target, and is also the rule of achieving low-carbon development in China. In addition, there are great differences in the level of economic development and natural resource endowment among different regions in China, and the carbon unlocking status among provinces is not the same. Taking the provincial area as the research object, the countermeasures of carbon unlocking can be better sought according to the local conditions. Based on data collection and calculation, this paper takes trend analysis, influencing factors and countermeasures and suggestions as the main line, taking 2005 to 2014 as the time node and 30 provinces and cities as research objects. Firstly, this paper introduces the research background and significance of the industrial carbon unlocking problem in China, and makes a theoretical foundation for further analysis by reviewing the literature and combing the relevant theoretical basis. Then, the paper makes a detailed analysis of the current situation and characteristics of industrial carbon emissions in China from three levels: national, regional and provincial, and makes a quantitative judgment on the unlocking effect of industrial industries in 30 provinces and cities of China based on the decoupling model. Then, by introducing econometric analysis method, using panel data model, from the perspective of economic scale, technological progress and energy structure, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of industrial carbon unlocking in China and in different regions. On the basis of empirical analysis, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Through research and analysis, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) according to the level of economic development and the situation of carbon release, 30 provinces and cities can be roughly divided into three categories: Beijing, Shanghai and other 6 provinces and cities with a high level of economic development. It shows that the quality of economic development is high; The economy is still in the rapid development stage, the carbon release state fluctuates greatly Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and so on altogether 11 provinces and cities, reduces the emission pressure to be big; The economy is still in the stage of rapid development. 13 provinces and cities, such as Hebei, Anhui, Fujian and so on, which are relatively stable in unlocked state, mostly show that the economic level and carbon emissions are both increasing. (2) the empirical analysis of the influencing factors, from the national point of view, Energy consumption structure is the main driving factor of industrial carbon emission intensity. From the sub-regional point of view, the influence of each explanatory variable is similar to that of the whole country, and the direction of action is basically the same. It is noted in particular that R & D intensity is positively correlated with carbon emission intensity in category III areas, contrary to expectations, the possible explanation is that R & D investment is mainly used to promote industrial output growth rather than energy conservation and emission reduction. Finally, based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to promote low carbonization and realize industrial carbon unlocking from the point of view of technology, institution and regional difference.
【學位授予單位】：江南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X22;F424
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