【摘要】：20世紀(jì)末期隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步和交通運(yùn)輸技術(shù)的發(fā)展,世界貿(mào)易模式由原來(lái)的產(chǎn)業(yè)間、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)分工貿(mào)易模式向產(chǎn)品內(nèi)分工貿(mào)易模式轉(zhuǎn)變。世界貿(mào)易模式變化對(duì)中美貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生了影響,中美貿(mào)易量和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了巨大變化。中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易量和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的變化引發(fā)了一系列新的貿(mào)易問(wèn)題,其中較為突出的便是中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間問(wèn)題。貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間的增加對(duì)不同類型的產(chǎn)品的影響不同,哪些因素對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間有影響,如何利用這些因素來(lái)調(diào)控中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間以促進(jìn)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量提高和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)成為了當(dāng)務(wù)之急。傳統(tǒng)國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論主要從貿(mào)易對(duì)象、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)等角度對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易進(jìn)行研究,但很少?gòu)馁Q(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間角度進(jìn)行研究分析,因此傳統(tǒng)國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論無(wú)法完全解釋貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間問(wèn)題。貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間理論是近年來(lái)新興起的一個(gè)研究方向,貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間是指某一產(chǎn)品從首次進(jìn)入目的國(guó)市場(chǎng)到退出目的國(guó)市場(chǎng)所耗費(fèi)的時(shí)間。本文利用生存分析方法從貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間角度對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間進(jìn)行研究。本文首先闡述分析了中美貿(mào)易模式,分析了中美貿(mào)易模式的形成和發(fā)展過(guò)程,引入要素稟賦理論和李嘉圖擴(kuò)展模型進(jìn)行了理論解釋。接著本文引出了貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間問(wèn)題,剖析了中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間的影響因素,從理論角度解釋了貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間的增加并非對(duì)所有類型的產(chǎn)品都有利,應(yīng)當(dāng)區(qū)別對(duì)待。實(shí)證研究部分本文首先簡(jiǎn)要介紹了生存分析方法的概念、種類以及相關(guān)模型,接著對(duì)所搜集的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行刪失處理后利用生存分析方法中的Kaplan—Merier模型對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì),利用指數(shù)模型和Weibull模型對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間的影響因素進(jìn)行相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn),最后利用Xprobit模型進(jìn)行穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證研究結(jié)果表明出口產(chǎn)品的要素稟賦類型、出口產(chǎn)品初始貿(mào)易額、出口產(chǎn)品單位價(jià)值、美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況和中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間均有顯著影響。根據(jù)實(shí)證研究結(jié)果本文提出了相關(guān)政策建議,希望能為中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展提供指導(dǎo),也能為中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的相關(guān)研究提供理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:At the end of the 20th century, with the progress of science and technology and the development of transportation technology, the mode of world trade changed from the mode of intra-industry division of labor to the mode of intra-product division of trade. The change of world trade mode has influenced the trade between China and the United States, and the volume and structure of trade between China and the United States have changed greatly. The change of the volume and structure of China's exports to the United States has caused a series of new trade problems, among which the more prominent one is the duration of China's trade with the United States. The increase in the duration of trade has different effects on different types of products, and what factors have an impact on the duration of China's export trade to the United States, How to use these factors to regulate the duration of China's export trade to the United States to promote the quality of China's exports to the United States and upgrade the industrial structure has become a top priority. The traditional international trade theory mainly studies the international trade from the aspects of trade object and trade structure, but seldom studies and analyses from the angle of trade duration, so the traditional international trade theory can not fully explain the trade duration problem. Trade duration theory is a new research direction in recent years. Trade duration refers to the time spent by a product from entering the market of the destination country to withdrawing from the market of the country of destination for the first time. In this paper, the survival analysis method is used to study the duration of China's export trade to the United States from the perspective of trade duration. Firstly, this paper analyzes the trade model between China and the United States, analyzes the formation and development process of Sino-US trade model, and introduces the theory of factor endowment and Ricardo expansion model to explain the theory. Then this paper introduces the issue of trade duration, analyzes the factors that affect the duration of China's trade with the United States, and explains theoretically that the increase of trade duration is not beneficial to all types of products. It should be treated differently. In the part of empirical research, the concept, types and relevant models of survival analysis methods are introduced briefly. Then delete the collected data and use the Kaplan-Merier model in the survival analysis method to make descriptive statistics on the duration of China's trade with the United States export products. This paper uses index model and Weibull model to test the influence factors of China on the duration of American export trade. Finally, the Xprobit model is used to test the robustness. The empirical results show that the types of factor endowment of export products, the initial trade volume of export products, the unit value of export products, U.S. economic conditions and China's economic conditions have a significant impact on the duration of Chinese exports to the United States. According to the results of empirical research, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations, hoping to provide guidance for the sustainable and stable development of China's export trade to the United States, as well as theoretical basis for the relevant research on China's export trade to the United States.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62

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