中國對美國出口貿易持續(xù)時間研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-10 19:53
【摘要】：20世紀末期隨著科學技術的進步和交通運輸技術的發(fā)展,世界貿易模式由原來的產業(yè)間、產業(yè)內分工貿易模式向產品內分工貿易模式轉變。世界貿易模式變化對中美貿易產生了影響,中美貿易量和貿易結構發(fā)生了巨大變化。中國對美國出口產品貿易量和貿易結構的變化引發(fā)了一系列新的貿易問題,其中較為突出的便是中國對美國出口產品貿易持續(xù)時間問題。貿易持續(xù)時間的增加對不同類型的產品的影響不同,哪些因素對中國對美國出口貿易持續(xù)時間有影響,如何利用這些因素來調控中國對美國出口貿易持續(xù)時間以促進中國對美國出口產品質量提高和產業(yè)結構升級成為了當務之急。傳統(tǒng)國際貿易理論主要從貿易對象、貿易結構等角度對國際貿易進行研究,但很少從貿易持續(xù)時間角度進行研究分析,因此傳統(tǒng)國際貿易理論無法完全解釋貿易持續(xù)時間問題。貿易持續(xù)時間理論是近年來新興起的一個研究方向,貿易持續(xù)時間是指某一產品從首次進入目的國市場到退出目的國市場所耗費的時間。本文利用生存分析方法從貿易持續(xù)時間角度對中國對美國出口貿易持續(xù)時間進行研究。本文首先闡述分析了中美貿易模式,分析了中美貿易模式的形成和發(fā)展過程,引入要素稟賦理論和李嘉圖擴展模型進行了理論解釋。接著本文引出了貿易持續(xù)時間問題,剖析了中國對美國出口產品貿易持續(xù)時間的影響因素,從理論角度解釋了貿易持續(xù)時間的增加并非對所有類型的產品都有利,應當區(qū)別對待。實證研究部分本文首先簡要介紹了生存分析方法的概念、種類以及相關模型,接著對所搜集的數據進行刪失處理后利用生存分析方法中的Kaplan—Merier模型對中國對美國出口產品的貿易持續(xù)時間進行描述性統(tǒng)計,利用指數模型和Weibull模型對中國對美國出口產品貿易持續(xù)時間的影響因素進行相關性檢驗,最后利用Xprobit模型進行穩(wěn)健性檢驗。實證研究結果表明出口產品的要素稟賦類型、出口產品初始貿易額、出口產品單位價值、美國的經濟狀況和中國的經濟狀況對中國對美國出口產品的貿易持續(xù)時間均有顯著影響。根據實證研究結果本文提出了相關政策建議,希望能為中國對美國出口貿易的持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展提供指導,也能為中國對美國出口貿易的相關研究提供理論依據。
[Abstract]:At the end of the 20th century, with the progress of science and technology and the development of transportation technology, the mode of world trade changed from the mode of intra-industry division of labor to the mode of intra-product division of trade. The change of world trade mode has influenced the trade between China and the United States, and the volume and structure of trade between China and the United States have changed greatly. The change of the volume and structure of China's exports to the United States has caused a series of new trade problems, among which the more prominent one is the duration of China's trade with the United States. The increase in the duration of trade has different effects on different types of products, and what factors have an impact on the duration of China's export trade to the United States, How to use these factors to regulate the duration of China's export trade to the United States to promote the quality of China's exports to the United States and upgrade the industrial structure has become a top priority. The traditional international trade theory mainly studies the international trade from the aspects of trade object and trade structure, but seldom studies and analyses from the angle of trade duration, so the traditional international trade theory can not fully explain the trade duration problem. Trade duration theory is a new research direction in recent years. Trade duration refers to the time spent by a product from entering the market of the destination country to withdrawing from the market of the country of destination for the first time. In this paper, the survival analysis method is used to study the duration of China's export trade to the United States from the perspective of trade duration. Firstly, this paper analyzes the trade model between China and the United States, analyzes the formation and development process of Sino-US trade model, and introduces the theory of factor endowment and Ricardo expansion model to explain the theory. Then this paper introduces the issue of trade duration, analyzes the factors that affect the duration of China's trade with the United States, and explains theoretically that the increase of trade duration is not beneficial to all types of products. It should be treated differently. In the part of empirical research, the concept, types and relevant models of survival analysis methods are introduced briefly. Then delete the collected data and use the Kaplan-Merier model in the survival analysis method to make descriptive statistics on the duration of China's trade with the United States export products. This paper uses index model and Weibull model to test the influence factors of China on the duration of American export trade. Finally, the Xprobit model is used to test the robustness. The empirical results show that the types of factor endowment of export products, the initial trade volume of export products, the unit value of export products, U.S. economic conditions and China's economic conditions have a significant impact on the duration of Chinese exports to the United States. According to the results of empirical research, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations, hoping to provide guidance for the sustainable and stable development of China's export trade to the United States, as well as theoretical basis for the relevant research on China's export trade to the United States.
【學位授予單位】：南京師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.62
本文編號：2323448
[Abstract]:At the end of the 20th century, with the progress of science and technology and the development of transportation technology, the mode of world trade changed from the mode of intra-industry division of labor to the mode of intra-product division of trade. The change of world trade mode has influenced the trade between China and the United States, and the volume and structure of trade between China and the United States have changed greatly. The change of the volume and structure of China's exports to the United States has caused a series of new trade problems, among which the more prominent one is the duration of China's trade with the United States. The increase in the duration of trade has different effects on different types of products, and what factors have an impact on the duration of China's export trade to the United States, How to use these factors to regulate the duration of China's export trade to the United States to promote the quality of China's exports to the United States and upgrade the industrial structure has become a top priority. The traditional international trade theory mainly studies the international trade from the aspects of trade object and trade structure, but seldom studies and analyses from the angle of trade duration, so the traditional international trade theory can not fully explain the trade duration problem. Trade duration theory is a new research direction in recent years. Trade duration refers to the time spent by a product from entering the market of the destination country to withdrawing from the market of the country of destination for the first time. In this paper, the survival analysis method is used to study the duration of China's export trade to the United States from the perspective of trade duration. Firstly, this paper analyzes the trade model between China and the United States, analyzes the formation and development process of Sino-US trade model, and introduces the theory of factor endowment and Ricardo expansion model to explain the theory. Then this paper introduces the issue of trade duration, analyzes the factors that affect the duration of China's trade with the United States, and explains theoretically that the increase of trade duration is not beneficial to all types of products. It should be treated differently. In the part of empirical research, the concept, types and relevant models of survival analysis methods are introduced briefly. Then delete the collected data and use the Kaplan-Merier model in the survival analysis method to make descriptive statistics on the duration of China's trade with the United States export products. This paper uses index model and Weibull model to test the influence factors of China on the duration of American export trade. Finally, the Xprobit model is used to test the robustness. The empirical results show that the types of factor endowment of export products, the initial trade volume of export products, the unit value of export products, U.S. economic conditions and China's economic conditions have a significant impact on the duration of Chinese exports to the United States. According to the results of empirical research, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations, hoping to provide guidance for the sustainable and stable development of China's export trade to the United States, as well as theoretical basis for the relevant research on China's export trade to the United States.
【學位授予單位】：南京師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.62
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前10條
1 李清政;王佳;舒杏;;中國對東盟自貿區(qū)農產品出口貿易持續(xù)時間研究[J];宏觀經濟研究;2016年05期
2 張煈;孫浦陽;;雙邊營商環(huán)境、契約依賴和貿易持續(xù)期——基于中國企業(yè)微觀數據的實證研究[J];財經研究;2016年04期
3 胡雋;曹顯兵;;左截斷右刪失下Weibull分布參數估計及其應用[J];數學的實踐與認識;2015年17期
4 張欣怡;;中國文化產品出口貿易聯系持續(xù)期的影響因素分析[J];云南財經大學學報;2015年04期
5 黃太洋;;貿易聯系持續(xù)時間及其影響因素研究:一個文獻綜述[J];宜春學院學報;2015年07期
6 杜運蘇;王麗麗;;中國出口貿易持續(xù)時間及其影響因素研究——基于Cloglog模型[J];科研管理;2015年07期
7 雷昭明;;東亞生產網絡內分工格局的穩(wěn)定性——基于貿易關系持續(xù)時間的分析[J];江西社會科學;2015年07期
8 蔣靈多;陳勇兵;;出口企業(yè)的產品異質性與出口持續(xù)時間[J];世界經濟;2015年07期
9 衛(wèi)瑞;張文城;張少軍;;全球價值鏈視角下中國增加值出口及其影響因素[J];數量經濟技術經濟研究;2015年07期
10 拓曉瑞;左連村;;基于增加值核算的我國出口產業(yè)競爭力分析[J];國際經貿探索;2015年06期
，本文編號：2323448
本文鏈接：http://www.lk138.cn/jingjilunwen/guojimaoyilunwen/2323448.html
