發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-08 20:22

【摘要】：反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查除了產(chǎn)生已廣為人知的貿(mào)易限制、貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移、繼發(fā)保護(hù)等效應(yīng)之外,是否還會(huì)產(chǎn)生導(dǎo)致被控傾銷(xiāo)國(guó)出口至第三方市場(chǎng)數(shù)量下降的所謂“恐懼效應(yīng)”?運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)和計(jì)量的手段回答這一問(wèn)題的邏輯和方法是全面認(rèn)識(shí)和科學(xué)判定反傾銷(xiāo)貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的技術(shù)關(guān)鍵。本文以歐盟對(duì)華無(wú)縫鋼管以及獨(dú)聯(lián)體國(guó)家對(duì)華彩涂板反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查案件為例,在大量涉案貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,遵循先遴選后排除的思路,運(yùn)用Chow突變點(diǎn)檢驗(yàn)、虛擬變量模型、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)和分位數(shù)回歸等方法和手段,通過(guò)對(duì)比分析,在示范性地演示反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查“恐懼效應(yīng)”判定方法和程序從而為國(guó)際貿(mào)易活動(dòng)中類(lèi)似效應(yīng)的檢驗(yàn)提供可能評(píng)測(cè)范式的同時(shí),回答了反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查是否必然存在“恐懼效應(yīng)”這一問(wèn)題。在此基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用聚類(lèi)分析法對(duì)反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查“恐懼效應(yīng)”進(jìn)行效力測(cè)度,得出如下結(jié)論:歐盟反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查是我國(guó)無(wú)縫鋼管出口美國(guó)市場(chǎng)大幅下滑的直接原因,本文將此稱作反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查的“恐懼效應(yīng)”。與此同時(shí),對(duì)中國(guó)無(wú)縫鋼管主要出口的23個(gè)國(guó)家進(jìn)行聚類(lèi)分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)反傾銷(xiāo)調(diào)查“恐懼效應(yīng)”只發(fā)生在美國(guó),并未傳導(dǎo)至其他國(guó)家。
[Abstract]:In addition to the well-known effects of trade restrictions, trade transfers and secondary protection, will anti-dumping investigations have the so-called "fear effect" that leads to a decline in the number of alleged dumping countries exporting to third-party markets? The logic and method of answering this question by means of statistics and metrology is the technical key to comprehensively understand and scientifically judge the effect of anti-dumping trade. Taking the European Union seamless steel tubes and the CIS countries' anti-dumping investigation cases against China as an example, on the basis of a large number of trade data involved, following the idea of first selecting and then excluding, using Chow mutation point test, virtual variable model, Methods and means of Granger causality test and quantile regression were compared and analyzed. While demonstrating exemplary methods and procedures for determining the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigations, thus providing a paradigm for possible evaluation of similar effects in international trade activities, It answers the question whether the anti-dumping investigation must have "fear effect". On this basis, the validity of the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation is measured by cluster analysis, and the following conclusions are drawn: the European Union anti-dumping investigation is the direct reason for the sharp decline of China's seamless steel pipe exports to the United States market. This article calls this the "fear effect" of the anti-dumping investigation. At the same time, the cluster analysis of 23 countries that China mainly exports seamless steel pipes shows that the "fear effect" of anti-dumping investigation only occurred in the United States and did not transmit to other countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)計(jì)量學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F416.31;F752.02;F755

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王新宇;趙紹娟;;基于分位數(shù)回歸模型的滬深股市風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測(cè)量研究[J];中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2008年03期

2 解棟棟;;服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展與人均收入的關(guān)系:基于分位數(shù)回歸的實(shí)證研究[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2009年08期

3 盧荻千;;基于分位數(shù)回歸的凈資產(chǎn)收益率研究——來(lái)自2008年我國(guó)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)[J];金融經(jīng)濟(jì);2009年20期

4 蘇h椒，

本文編號(hào)：2319591