基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型的中美貿(mào)易順差分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-03 19:38
【摘要】：中美貿(mào)易順差問(wèn)題一直以來(lái)都是專(zhuān)家學(xué)者們研究的重點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。但是學(xué)者們多年來(lái)關(guān)于中美貿(mào)易順差的研究,大多是選取一個(gè)單一的影響因素進(jìn)行單向原因的定性和定量分析,缺乏對(duì)中美貿(mào)易順差形成原因的外部政治環(huán)境以及其影響因素內(nèi)部運(yùn)行機(jī)制的分析。鑒于傳統(tǒng)貿(mào)易理論對(duì)現(xiàn)代中美貿(mào)易失衡缺乏解釋力,未能解釋當(dāng)今中美貿(mào)易嚴(yán)重失衡的現(xiàn)象。依據(jù)傳統(tǒng)貿(mào)易理論的分析結(jié)果,中美之間的貿(mào)易順差額應(yīng)該是逐漸縮小并且趨于穩(wěn)定的,但是現(xiàn)實(shí)情況剛好與之相反。因此,為了能夠更進(jìn)一步的解釋現(xiàn)實(shí)中美貿(mào)易失衡的原因,本文首次引入了系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型對(duì)影響中美貿(mào)易失衡的各個(gè)主要因素進(jìn)行建模,從而對(duì)其形成子系統(tǒng)分別進(jìn)行分析,從全局性的角度把握中美貿(mào)易失衡的本質(zhì)。本文緒論部分簡(jiǎn)單的論述了選題背景和意義、研究?jī)?nèi)容、方法框架以及文獻(xiàn)綜述等內(nèi)容。第二部分簡(jiǎn)述了中美貿(mào)易的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及現(xiàn)今中美貿(mào)易失衡的現(xiàn)狀。第三部分主要介紹了系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法,以及采用此方法的原因,并且建立了影響中美貿(mào)易順差各個(gè)因素的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型。本文的第三章主要對(duì)影響中美貿(mào)易順差因素的五個(gè)子系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行定性分析:美元霸權(quán)因果關(guān)系子系統(tǒng)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)差異因果關(guān)系子系、美國(guó)虛擬產(chǎn)品出口因果關(guān)系子系統(tǒng)、儲(chǔ)蓄論因果關(guān)系子系統(tǒng)、中美比較優(yōu)勢(shì)各因素子系統(tǒng)。本文引入了中美貿(mào)易之間“浮腫現(xiàn)象”的概念,對(duì)美國(guó)虛擬產(chǎn)品在中美雙方貿(mào)易中對(duì)雙邊順差影響進(jìn)行了一定程度上的分析。經(jīng)過(guò)中美貿(mào)易順差原因子系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行定性分析之后,本文第五、六兩章對(duì)能夠進(jìn)行定量分析的美國(guó)對(duì)華FDI、東南亞產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移進(jìn)行定量分析,分別建立相關(guān)流圖,利用結(jié)合計(jì)量模型所得出的線(xiàn)性方程進(jìn)行Venism仿真分析,初步模擬未來(lái)30年中美貿(mào)易順差額的變動(dòng)情況。最后綜合以上分析得出結(jié)論:中美貿(mào)易順差額的持續(xù)擴(kuò)大是多方面因素共同影響的結(jié)果;中美貿(mào)易順差額在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)不可能縮小,并且在未來(lái)30年具有持續(xù)擴(kuò)大的趨勢(shì);美國(guó)政府在中美貿(mào)易中獲得了最大的利益;最后章本文提出了對(duì)策和建議。
[Abstract]:The issue of trade surplus between China and the United States has always been the focus of research by experts and scholars. However, for many years, scholars have studied the trade surplus between China and the United States, mostly by selecting a single influencing factor for qualitative and quantitative analysis of one-way causes. It lacks the analysis of the external political environment and the internal operating mechanism of the influencing factors of Sino-American trade surplus. In view of the lack of explanation of the trade imbalance between China and the United States in modern times, the traditional trade theory fails to explain the serious trade imbalance between China and the United States. According to the analysis of traditional trade theory, the trade balance between China and the United States should gradually decrease and tend to be stable, but the reality is just the opposite. Therefore, in order to further explain the causes of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, the system dynamics model is introduced for the first time to model the main factors that affect the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Grasp the essence of the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the perspective of overall situation. The introduction of this paper briefly discusses the background and significance of the topic, research content, method framework and literature review. The second part briefly describes the development of Sino-US trade and the current situation of Sino-US trade imbalance. The third part mainly introduces the system dynamics method and the reason why it is used, and establishes the system dynamics model which affects each factor of the trade surplus between China and the United States. The third chapter of this paper mainly analyzes the five subsystems that influence the factors of Sino-US trade surplus: the US dollar hegemony causality subsystem, the tertiary industry statistical differential causality sub-system, the United States virtual product export causality subsystem. Savings theory of causality subsystem, the comparative advantage of China and the United States each factor subsystem. This paper introduces the concept of "bloated phenomenon" between China and the United States, and analyzes to a certain extent the influence of American virtual products on bilateral surplus in Sino-US trade. After the qualitative analysis of the cause subsystem of Sino-US trade surplus, the fifth and sixth chapters of this paper quantitatively analyze the Southeast Asian industrial transfer from the United States to China, which can be quantitatively analyzed, and establish the relevant flow charts respectively. By using the linear equation derived from the econometric model, the Venism simulation analysis is carried out to preliminarily simulate the change of the trade balance between China and the United States in the next 30 years. Finally, the conclusion is drawn from the above analysis: the continuous expansion of Sino-American trade balance is the result of multiple factors, and the Sino-u. S. Trade balance will not be reduced in the foreseeable future, and will continue to expand in the next 30 years The American government gains the greatest benefit in Sino-American trade. In the last chapter, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.7;F757.12
本文編號(hào)：2308791
[Abstract]:The issue of trade surplus between China and the United States has always been the focus of research by experts and scholars. However, for many years, scholars have studied the trade surplus between China and the United States, mostly by selecting a single influencing factor for qualitative and quantitative analysis of one-way causes. It lacks the analysis of the external political environment and the internal operating mechanism of the influencing factors of Sino-American trade surplus. In view of the lack of explanation of the trade imbalance between China and the United States in modern times, the traditional trade theory fails to explain the serious trade imbalance between China and the United States. According to the analysis of traditional trade theory, the trade balance between China and the United States should gradually decrease and tend to be stable, but the reality is just the opposite. Therefore, in order to further explain the causes of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, the system dynamics model is introduced for the first time to model the main factors that affect the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Grasp the essence of the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the perspective of overall situation. The introduction of this paper briefly discusses the background and significance of the topic, research content, method framework and literature review. The second part briefly describes the development of Sino-US trade and the current situation of Sino-US trade imbalance. The third part mainly introduces the system dynamics method and the reason why it is used, and establishes the system dynamics model which affects each factor of the trade surplus between China and the United States. The third chapter of this paper mainly analyzes the five subsystems that influence the factors of Sino-US trade surplus: the US dollar hegemony causality subsystem, the tertiary industry statistical differential causality sub-system, the United States virtual product export causality subsystem. Savings theory of causality subsystem, the comparative advantage of China and the United States each factor subsystem. This paper introduces the concept of "bloated phenomenon" between China and the United States, and analyzes to a certain extent the influence of American virtual products on bilateral surplus in Sino-US trade. After the qualitative analysis of the cause subsystem of Sino-US trade surplus, the fifth and sixth chapters of this paper quantitatively analyze the Southeast Asian industrial transfer from the United States to China, which can be quantitatively analyzed, and establish the relevant flow charts respectively. By using the linear equation derived from the econometric model, the Venism simulation analysis is carried out to preliminarily simulate the change of the trade balance between China and the United States in the next 30 years. Finally, the conclusion is drawn from the above analysis: the continuous expansion of Sino-American trade balance is the result of multiple factors, and the Sino-u. S. Trade balance will not be reduced in the foreseeable future, and will continue to expand in the next 30 years The American government gains the greatest benefit in Sino-American trade. In the last chapter, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.7;F757.12
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條
1 田銀華,朱文蔚;美國(guó)的直接投資對(duì)中美貿(mào)易影響的協(xié)整分析[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2005年10期
，本文編號(hào)：2308791
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