西方經(jīng)濟制裁對中俄貿(mào)易影響的實證分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-01 16:09
【摘要】：中俄是全面戰(zhàn)略協(xié)作伙伴關(guān)系,近二十年時間里,中俄兩國始終保持著高度友好的政治關(guān)系,對中俄兩國人民和世界和平都做出了巨大貢獻。然而,與兩國高度友好的政治關(guān)系相比,中俄經(jīng)濟合作卻不盡如人意。雖然,兩國間經(jīng)貿(mào)合作在持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的增長,但是“政熱經(jīng)溫”仍是中俄經(jīng)濟合作的主要特征,中俄貿(mào)易額相比中國與其他世界大國相距甚遠,兩國間的投資額也相當有限。如何在高度友好的政治關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上促進兩國經(jīng)貿(mào)合作,是中俄學(xué)術(shù)界始終關(guān)注和探討的重要問題。2013年因烏克蘭危機引發(fā)了以美國為首的西方國家對俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟制裁與俄羅斯的反制裁,給俄羅斯經(jīng)濟帶來嚴重沖擊,也對俄羅斯的國際經(jīng)濟關(guān)系產(chǎn)生連帶影響。那么,這對中俄經(jīng)貿(mào)合作產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響,它帶來是機遇還是挑戰(zhàn)?本文采用實證分析方法,對西方經(jīng)濟制裁后中俄經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系發(fā)生的變化,包括規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)兩個方面,進行實證分析,從中得出西方經(jīng)濟制裁對中俄經(jīng)貿(mào)合作的影響的現(xiàn)實結(jié)論,發(fā)現(xiàn)影響中俄經(jīng)貿(mào)合作的深層次問題,以此推動中俄經(jīng)貿(mào)合作健康向前發(fā)展。本文內(nèi)容除了緒論之外包括四個部分。第一部分是對西方對俄羅斯經(jīng)濟制裁的內(nèi)容、方式的綜合分析,并將此次經(jīng)濟制裁與以往經(jīng)濟制裁進行比較。第二部分是對中俄貿(mào)易的規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)進行描述性分析,從而給出西方經(jīng)濟制裁之前中俄經(jīng)貿(mào)的整體面貌以及西方經(jīng)濟制裁后發(fā)生的改變。第三部分是通過實證分析觀察西方經(jīng)濟制裁與中俄經(jīng)貿(mào)合作之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性。第四部分是在第二和第三部分研究結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上對中俄經(jīng)貿(mào)合作提出建議。最后,本文給出一些研究結(jié)論與啟示。通過實證分析發(fā)現(xiàn),在西方經(jīng)濟制裁后,中俄貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)中工業(yè)制成品所占的比重在增加,尤其是資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品比重增加較為明顯。通過貿(mào)易結(jié)合度指數(shù)與貿(mào)易互補性指數(shù)對中俄貿(mào)易進一步分析,得出中俄貿(mào)易結(jié)合度越來越緊密,中國對俄羅斯的貿(mào)易結(jié)合度較高但有所下降,而俄羅斯對中國的貿(mào)易結(jié)合度在不斷上升。中俄貿(mào)易在工業(yè)制成品、機械設(shè)備運輸品、雜項制品方面具有較強的互補性,這也為中俄貿(mào)易關(guān)系的加強奠定了基礎(chǔ)。西方經(jīng)濟制裁對俄羅斯的貿(mào)易總額、出口產(chǎn)生了顯著的負面影響,對俄進口影響并不顯著。中俄雙方貿(mào)易為“潛力開拓型”,雙邊貿(mào)易仍然具有很大的發(fā)展空間。最后,本文主要從改善中俄貿(mào)易制度與優(yōu)化中俄貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)兩方面對中俄貿(mào)易提出對策建議,以期能夠推動中俄貿(mào)易的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Over the past two decades, China and Russia have maintained highly friendly political relations and made great contributions to the peoples of China and Russia and to world peace. However, compared with the highly friendly political relations between the two countries, economic cooperation between China and Russia is far from satisfactory. Although the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries is growing steadily and steadily, the "political hot economy" is still the main characteristic of Sino-Russian economic cooperation. The Sino-Russian trade volume is far from that of other major countries in the world, and the investment between the two countries is quite limited. How to promote economic and trade cooperation between the two countries on the basis of highly friendly political relations, It is an important issue that has always been concerned and discussed by the Chinese and Russian academic circles. In 2013, because of the crisis in Ukraine, the United States-led Western countries imposed economic sanctions on Russia and Russia's anti-sanctions, which had a serious impact on the Russian economy. It also has a knock-on effect on Russia's international economic relations. So, how does this affect Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation? is it an opportunity or a challenge? This paper uses the empirical analysis method to analyze the changes in Sino-Russian economic and trade relations after the western economic sanctions, including the two aspects of scale and structure, and draws the realistic conclusion of the influence of the western economic sanctions on the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. To find out the deep problems that affect the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation, so as to promote the healthy development of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. In addition to the introduction, the content of this paper includes four parts. The first part is a comprehensive analysis of the contents and methods of the western economic sanctions against Russia, and compares the economic sanctions with the previous ones. The second part is a descriptive analysis of the scale and structure of Sino-Russian trade, so as to give the overall appearance of Sino-Russian trade before the western economic sanctions and the changes that have taken place after the western economic sanctions. The third part is the empirical analysis of the relationship between Western economic sanctions and Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. The fourth part is based on the conclusions of the second and third parts of the study on Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. Finally, some conclusions and revelations are given. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the proportion of manufactured goods in Sino-Russian trade structure is increasing after western economic sanctions, especially the proportion of capital-technology-intensive products. Through the further analysis of Sino-Russian trade by trade combination index and trade complementarity index, it is concluded that Sino-Russian trade integration is getting closer and closer, and China's trade integration with Russia is higher but lower. Russia's trade with China is on the rise. Sino-Russian trade is highly complementary in industrial manufactured goods, machinery and equipment, and miscellaneous products, which has laid the foundation for the strengthening of Sino-Russian trade relations. Western economic sanctions have a significant negative impact on Russia's total trade volume and exports, but not on Russia's imports. Trade between China and Russia is a potential-developing type, and bilateral trade still has a lot of room for development. Finally, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on Sino-Russian trade from the aspects of improving Sino-Russian trade system and optimizing Sino-Russian trade structure, in order to promote the sustainable development of Sino-Russian trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752;F755.12
本文編號：2304428
[Abstract]:Over the past two decades, China and Russia have maintained highly friendly political relations and made great contributions to the peoples of China and Russia and to world peace. However, compared with the highly friendly political relations between the two countries, economic cooperation between China and Russia is far from satisfactory. Although the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries is growing steadily and steadily, the "political hot economy" is still the main characteristic of Sino-Russian economic cooperation. The Sino-Russian trade volume is far from that of other major countries in the world, and the investment between the two countries is quite limited. How to promote economic and trade cooperation between the two countries on the basis of highly friendly political relations, It is an important issue that has always been concerned and discussed by the Chinese and Russian academic circles. In 2013, because of the crisis in Ukraine, the United States-led Western countries imposed economic sanctions on Russia and Russia's anti-sanctions, which had a serious impact on the Russian economy. It also has a knock-on effect on Russia's international economic relations. So, how does this affect Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation? is it an opportunity or a challenge? This paper uses the empirical analysis method to analyze the changes in Sino-Russian economic and trade relations after the western economic sanctions, including the two aspects of scale and structure, and draws the realistic conclusion of the influence of the western economic sanctions on the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. To find out the deep problems that affect the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation, so as to promote the healthy development of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. In addition to the introduction, the content of this paper includes four parts. The first part is a comprehensive analysis of the contents and methods of the western economic sanctions against Russia, and compares the economic sanctions with the previous ones. The second part is a descriptive analysis of the scale and structure of Sino-Russian trade, so as to give the overall appearance of Sino-Russian trade before the western economic sanctions and the changes that have taken place after the western economic sanctions. The third part is the empirical analysis of the relationship between Western economic sanctions and Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. The fourth part is based on the conclusions of the second and third parts of the study on Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. Finally, some conclusions and revelations are given. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the proportion of manufactured goods in Sino-Russian trade structure is increasing after western economic sanctions, especially the proportion of capital-technology-intensive products. Through the further analysis of Sino-Russian trade by trade combination index and trade complementarity index, it is concluded that Sino-Russian trade integration is getting closer and closer, and China's trade integration with Russia is higher but lower. Russia's trade with China is on the rise. Sino-Russian trade is highly complementary in industrial manufactured goods, machinery and equipment, and miscellaneous products, which has laid the foundation for the strengthening of Sino-Russian trade relations. Western economic sanctions have a significant negative impact on Russia's total trade volume and exports, but not on Russia's imports. Trade between China and Russia is a potential-developing type, and bilateral trade still has a lot of room for development. Finally, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on Sino-Russian trade from the aspects of improving Sino-Russian trade system and optimizing Sino-Russian trade structure, in order to promote the sustainable development of Sino-Russian trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752;F755.12
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