本文選題：物價(jià)波動(dòng)　切入點(diǎn)：CPI　出處：《曲阜師范大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),我國(guó)多次出現(xiàn)一些生活必需品價(jià)格上升幅度失控的現(xiàn)象,“蒜你狠”、“姜你軍”等反映物價(jià)飛速上漲的網(wǎng)絡(luò)流行用語(yǔ)應(yīng)運(yùn)而生,物價(jià)上漲已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重影響到人們的生產(chǎn)生活,可見(jiàn),物價(jià)穩(wěn)定直接關(guān)系著人們的生活質(zhì)量水平,也影響著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展.首先,本文選取2001年至2013年相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),分析我國(guó)物價(jià)波動(dòng)情況.首先,通過(guò)對(duì)比與分析,選取居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)作為衡量物價(jià)波動(dòng)的指標(biāo),在本文第三章中,就CPI總指數(shù)及八大構(gòu)成指標(biāo)進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析.利用系統(tǒng)聚類和K 均值聚類分析相結(jié)合,把我國(guó)32個(gè)省、市、自治區(qū)劃分為五類.然后,選取2008年1月到2014年12月的10個(gè)影響指標(biāo),研究10個(gè)指標(biāo)對(duì)CPI的影響情況.第一步:建立多元統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,靜態(tài)分析各個(gè)指標(biāo)對(duì)物價(jià)影響的情況,得到回歸方程;第二步:建立向量自回歸模型,動(dòng)態(tài)分析各個(gè)指標(biāo)對(duì)物價(jià)波動(dòng)的影響,得到如下結(jié)論:企業(yè)商品價(jià)格指數(shù)因素和工業(yè)品出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)對(duì)于CPI貢獻(xiàn)率最大,甚至在滯后10期時(shí)仍在各個(gè)指標(biāo)中占據(jù)最大值,分別達(dá)到了最大值27.16920和49.35786,從而這兩個(gè)因素對(duì)物價(jià)波動(dòng)的影響是特別顯著的.食品類價(jià)格指數(shù)影響因素對(duì)CPI影響程度相對(duì)較大,其他各類影響因素影響程度相對(duì)較小.社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額指數(shù)根據(jù)其變化曲線來(lái)看,較為平穩(wěn),對(duì)CPI影響較為穩(wěn)定.進(jìn)出口總額指數(shù)和居住類價(jià)格指數(shù)都是先降后升,最后趨于穩(wěn)定.外匯儲(chǔ)備指數(shù)對(duì)其影響略微下降.食品類價(jià)格指數(shù)和貨幣供給量指數(shù)對(duì)CPI影響都是基本穩(wěn)定的.最后,針對(duì)分析結(jié)果提出一系列穩(wěn)定物價(jià)的合理化建議.第一,加快收入分配制度的改革,建立健全的社會(huì)保障體系.第二,加強(qiáng)對(duì)食品價(jià)格和房?jī)r(jià)的監(jiān)控.第三,為了防止物價(jià)上漲過(guò)于快速,必須增加市場(chǎng)商品的供應(yīng),有效地抑制不合理的需求.第四,控制好投資和進(jìn)出口規(guī)模.
[Abstract]:In recent years, there have been a number of times in China where the price of essential necessities has gone out of control. "garlic you are ruthless", "Jiang you Jun" and other popular Internet expressions reflecting the rapid rise in prices have emerged as the times require, and price increases have seriously affected people's production and life. It can be seen that price stability is directly related to people's quality of life and also to the development of our economy. First of all, this paper selects relevant data from 2001 to 2013 to analyze the price fluctuation in China. First, through comparison and analysis, The consumer price index (CPI) is selected as the index to measure the price fluctuation. In the third chapter, the author makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the total index of CPI and the eight major components of the index, and combines the systematic clustering with the K-means clustering analysis. 32 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China are divided into five categories. Then, 10 impact indicators from January 2008 to December 2014 are selected to study the impact of 10 indicators on CPI. The first step is to establish a multivariate statistical analysis. The second step is to establish a vector autoregressive model to dynamically analyze the influence of each index on price fluctuation. The conclusions are as follows: the factors of enterprise commodity price index and industrial product ex-factory price index contribute the most to CPI, even when they lag behind 10 periods, they still occupy the maximum value in each index. The maximum value is 27.16920 and 49.35786 respectively, so the influence of these two factors on price fluctuation is particularly significant. The influence of food price index on CPI is relatively large. According to its changing curve, the total retail sales index of social consumer goods is relatively stable, and the influence on CPI is relatively stable. Both the total import and export index and the housing price index both fall first and then rise. Finally, it tends to be stable. The foreign exchange reserve index has a slight decrease in its impact. The food price index and the money supply index are both basically stable to CPI. Finally, a series of rational suggestions for price stability are put forward in the light of the results of the analysis. First, Speed up the reform of the income distribution system and establish a sound social security system. Second, strengthen the monitoring of food prices and house prices. Third, in order to prevent prices from rising too fast, we must increase the supply of commodities on the market. Effectively restrain unreasonable demand. Fourth, control the scale of investment and import and export.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：曲阜師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F726

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

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本文編號(hào)：1673299