發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-11 17:37

  本文選題：中小流域 + 發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)�。� 參考：《福州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水力資源是可再生的清潔能源,全國(guó)眾多河流上建設(shè)了大量的小水電站,中小流域的小水電站主要功能就是發(fā)電。國(guó)家電網(wǎng)公司電力調(diào)度實(shí)行分級(jí)管理的模式,分別負(fù)責(zé)調(diào)度不同電壓等級(jí)的電網(wǎng)。同一流域的水電站由于裝機(jī)容量不同、地域不同,分別由不同的調(diào)度機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行發(fā)電調(diào)度,大部分沒有實(shí)行集中調(diào)度,上下游水電站無(wú)法統(tǒng)籌協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)電,部分電站有水就發(fā)電、無(wú)水就停機(jī),影響整條流域發(fā)電出力規(guī)劃。為解決這些問題,各流域水電站、各級(jí)調(diào)度單位都在積極建設(shè)流域梯級(jí)統(tǒng)一調(diào)度系統(tǒng),并取得了豐碩成果,但是從實(shí)際開發(fā)應(yīng)用情況來看也存在許多問題,特別是在中小流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)建設(shè)方面。技術(shù)條件、管理水平、自然環(huán)境和社會(huì)環(huán)境等工程項(xiàng)目的影響因素也同樣影響著中小流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,使項(xiàng)目具有較大的不確定性,在建設(shè)和運(yùn)行管理階段面臨較復(fù)雜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在項(xiàng)目實(shí)施和運(yùn)行階段,項(xiàng)目面臨較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要原因還有業(yè)主和項(xiàng)目管理者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理意識(shí)薄弱,該階段投入的人、財(cái)、物資源多,可能無(wú)法合理應(yīng)用各種資源；另外,缺少適合項(xiàng)目適用的或可供參考的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理模型,也是主要原因之一。鑒于以上問題,為了全面管控項(xiàng)目實(shí)施和運(yùn)行過程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),保證項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施,提高企業(yè)的效益,確實(shí)有必要研究一種針對(duì)中小型流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)建設(shè)和運(yùn)行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法。本文以汀江流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目為研究背景,運(yùn)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控理論方法和工具,識(shí)別和分析小水電站業(yè)主和電網(wǎng)企業(yè)在項(xiàng)目建設(shè)和運(yùn)行階段的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,然后建立項(xiàng)目的模糊綜合評(píng)估模型并利用該模型評(píng)估分析項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),最后,結(jié)合汀江流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的具體情況選擇最合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控策略和措施,降低項(xiàng)目各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),按計(jì)劃、按進(jìn)度順利完成項(xiàng)目實(shí)施,最大限度地實(shí)現(xiàn)小水電站業(yè)主和電網(wǎng)企業(yè)的建設(shè)目標(biāo)。本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容主要有以下幾方面：1、深入分析中小流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特點(diǎn)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過程。2、給出中小流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)和運(yùn)行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方法,建立中小流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)模型,對(duì)技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別,得到項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單。3、給出中小流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和評(píng)估方法,建立項(xiàng)目的模糊綜合評(píng)估模型,研究中小型流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控方法。4、針對(duì)汀江流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,對(duì)汀江流域梯級(jí)發(fā)電調(diào)度系統(tǒng)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行定性定量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和分析,并給出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn)。
[Abstract]:Hydraulic resources are renewable clean energy. A large number of small hydropower stations have been built on many rivers in China. The main function of small hydropower stations in middle and small watersheds is to generate electricity. The State Grid Company adopts a hierarchical management model, which is responsible for dispatching different voltage levels of the power grid. Due to different installed capacity and different regions, hydropower stations in the same basin are operated by different dispatching agencies respectively. Most of the hydropower stations do not carry out centralized dispatching, and the upstream and downstream hydropower stations are unable to coordinate the generation of electricity, and some of the hydropower stations have water to generate electricity. No water will stop, affecting the whole basin power generation planning. In order to solve these problems, all hydropower stations and dispatching units at all levels are actively building the cascade unified dispatching system of the river basin, and have achieved fruitful results, but there are also many problems in the actual development and application. Especially in the middle and small watershed cascade power generation dispatching system construction. The technical condition, management level, natural environment and social environment also affect the construction project of cascade power generation dispatching system in middle and small watershed, which makes the project more uncertain. In the construction and operation management phase is faced with more complex risks. In the stage of project implementation and operation, the main reason for the project facing greater risk is the weak awareness of risk management of the owner and the project manager. In this stage, many people, wealth and material resources may not be able to use all kinds of resources reasonably. The lack of suitable or referential risk management models is also one of the main reasons. In view of the above problems, in order to comprehensively control the risks in the implementation and operation of the project, ensure the smooth implementation of the project, and improve the efficiency of the enterprise, It is necessary to study a risk management method for the construction and operation of cascade power generation dispatching system in small and medium-sized watersheds. Taking the construction project of cascade power generation dispatching system in the Ting River Basin as the research background, this paper uses the risk control theory and tools to identify and analyze the risk factors of small hydropower station owners and power grid enterprises in the construction and operation stages of the project. Then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the project is established and the risk of the project is evaluated and analyzed by using the model. Finally, the most reasonable risk control strategy and measures are selected according to the concrete situation of the construction project of the cascade power generation dispatching system in the Ting River basin. Reduce the risk of each link of the project, according to the plan, according to the progress of the successful completion of the project, to maximize the realization of small hydropower plant owners and grid enterprises construction objectives. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: 1, deeply analyzing the risk characteristics and risk management process of cascade power generation dispatching system construction project in middle and small watershed, and giving the construction and operation of cascade power generation dispatching system project in middle and small watershed. Line risk identification method, The risk structure model of cascade power generation dispatching system project in middle and small watershed is established to identify the technical risk, management risk, economic risk and environmental risk. Get the risk list of the project. 3, give the risk analysis and evaluation method of the middle and small watershed cascade power generation dispatching system project, and establish the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the project. This paper studies the risk control method of cascade power generation dispatching system project in small and medium-sized watershed, and carries out empirical research on the construction project of cascade power generation dispatching system in Ting River basin. Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment and analysis are carried out on the construction project of cascade power generation dispatching system in the Tingjiang River Basin, and the experiences and lessons of risk management and control are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;TM73

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