發(fā)布時間：2018-10-09 16:14

【摘要】：隨著我國國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)也在高速的發(fā)展。但是,目前我國的房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展還并不完善,相應管理機制的形成也并不成熟。行業(yè)內部存在很多缺陷,導致房地產(chǎn)市場存在隱性風險。政府目前也只能依據(jù)市場現(xiàn)狀出臺相應政策進行宏觀調控,這樣亡羊補牢的做法也只能治標,不能從根本上保證房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展。 本文以宏觀經(jīng)濟預警理論為依據(jù),結合房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟周期波動理論,以綜合模擬法為設計主線,構建了哈爾濱市房地產(chǎn)預警系統(tǒng)。從房地產(chǎn)業(yè)同國民經(jīng)濟協(xié)調關系、房地產(chǎn)市場供求協(xié)調關系及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)內部協(xié)調關系三大方面出發(fā),建立了房地產(chǎn)預警指標體系,通過聚類分析對指標進行優(yōu)選,并在前人研究的基礎上,對主成分分析進行優(yōu)化,得出預警指數(shù),加入馬爾可夫預測及3σ方法,建立模型對哈爾濱市房地產(chǎn)市場進行了預測并預警。實證分析的結果顯示,從2012年至今,哈爾濱市房地產(chǎn)出現(xiàn)了偏冷的狀態(tài),需結合市場與政府調控雙向機制保持哈爾濱市房地產(chǎn)市場健康、有序的發(fā)展。 實證分析說明,本文建立的房地產(chǎn)預警系統(tǒng)可以對城市的房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展進行評價,也可以及時準確的發(fā)出預報和警報,對房地產(chǎn)市場的預警具有較大的參考價值和現(xiàn)實意義。
[Abstract]:With the development of our national economy, the real estate industry is also developing at a high speed. However, China's real estate market development is not perfect, the formation of the corresponding management mechanism is not mature. There are many defects in the industry, leading to hidden risks in the real estate market. At present, the government can only issue the corresponding policies according to the current market situation to carry out macro-control, so the practice of repairing the losses can only cure the symptoms, and can not guarantee the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry fundamentally. Based on the theory of macro-economic early warning and the theory of real estate economic cycle fluctuation, this paper constructs the real estate early warning system of Harbin with the comprehensive simulation method as the main design thread. Based on the coordination relationship between real estate industry and national economy, the coordination relationship between supply and demand in real estate market and the coordination relationship within real estate industry, the index system of real estate early warning is established, and the index is selected by cluster analysis. On the basis of previous studies, the principal component analysis is optimized, and the early warning index is obtained, and the Markov prediction and 3 蟽 method are added to establish the model to predict and warn the real estate market in Harbin. The results of empirical analysis show that, from 2012 to now, real estate in Harbin has been in a cold state. It is necessary to keep Harbin real estate market healthy and orderly in combination with the two-way mechanism of market and government regulation and control. The empirical analysis shows that the real estate early warning system established in this paper can evaluate the development of urban real estate, but also can timely and accurately issue forecasts and warnings, which has great reference value and practical significance to the early warning of real estate market.
【學位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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本文編號：2259962