【摘要】：在中國房地產(chǎn)的快速發(fā)展過程中,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的風險問題日益突出。用科學的方法反映房地產(chǎn)價格的變化,從而提供給市場主體正確的引導信息已變得十分迫切。住房價格指數(shù)是反映不同時期住房市場價格水平的變化趨勢和程度的相對數(shù)量指標,即只反映由市場供求和貨幣購買力變化引起的價格變化,而剔除由房地產(chǎn)特征等因素改變而引起的價格變化。上海目前公布的住房價格指數(shù)主要是在分層抽樣情況下采用平均值或者加權(quán)平均值的方法編制的。單純采用平均值的方法編制房產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)忽略了房產(chǎn)屬性特征的變化對價格指數(shù)的影響,筆者通過分析認為使用結(jié)合特征價格模型,采用典型房比較法作為上海住房價格指數(shù)的計算方法。本文在分析與探討了制定住房指數(shù)編制需要解決的問題、發(fā)達國家關(guān)于住房指數(shù)理論的研究成果、我國目前住房指數(shù)的現(xiàn)狀及其特點的基礎(chǔ)上,著重探討了現(xiàn)今國際上幾種廣泛應用的指數(shù)編制方法的優(yōu)點和局限性。通過借鑒國外比較完善的指數(shù)編制方法,分析影響上海住房市場價格的主要特征因素,結(jié)合上海這個經(jīng)濟繁榮,人口數(shù)量龐大,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展的國際化大城市的特點,提出了一種改進的住房價格指數(shù)方案,作為對于現(xiàn)有上海住房指數(shù)系統(tǒng)的補充和完善。并以上海市普通住宅的存量房價格指數(shù)的編制為例制定了具體的完善上海住房價格指數(shù)系統(tǒng)的方案,為預測上海住房價格走勢提供了比較科學的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In the process of rapid development of real estate in China, the risk problem of real estate industry is increasingly prominent. It is very urgent to reflect the change of real estate price by scientific method, so as to provide the correct guiding information to the main body of the market. The housing price index is a relative quantitative indicator that reflects the trend and extent of changes in the price level of the housing market over different periods, that is, only the price changes caused by changes in the market supply and demand and the purchasing power of money. Excluding the real estate characteristics and other factors caused by the price changes. The housing price index currently published in Shanghai is mainly compiled by means of average or weighted average in the case of stratified sampling. Using the method of average value to compile the real estate price index ignores the influence of the change of the property characteristics on the price index. The author thinks that the combined feature price model is used through the analysis. The typical housing comparison method is used as the calculation method of Shanghai housing price index. This paper analyzes and discusses the problems to be solved in the formulation of housing index, the research results of developed countries on housing index theory, the present situation and characteristics of housing index in China. The advantages and limitations of several widely used index compilation methods in the world are emphatically discussed. By referring to the relatively perfect index compilation method of foreign countries, this paper analyzes the main characteristic factors that affect the price of housing market in Shanghai, and combines the characteristics of Shanghai, which is an international city with a prosperous economy, a large population and a booming real estate industry. An improved housing price index scheme is proposed as a supplement to the existing housing index system in Shanghai. Taking the compilation of stock house price index of ordinary residential buildings in Shanghai as an example, a concrete scheme of perfecting Shanghai housing price index system is formulated, which provides a scientific basis for forecasting the trend of housing price in Shanghai.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：2238867