發(fā)布時間：2018-04-24 06:29

  本文選題：商品住宅地價 + 房價　； 參考：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：自住房的商品化供應(yīng)和土地市場化交易以來,在國家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)較快發(fā)展和居民可支配收入的快速增加的作用下,我國商品住宅市場和土地出讓市場發(fā)展繁榮,使得城市商品住宅價格與土地價格持續(xù)攀升。商品住宅價格與地價的快速上漲以及它們之間的關(guān)系成為政府、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)界和學(xué)術(shù)界共同關(guān)心的熱點(diǎn)和焦點(diǎn)。已有的學(xué)術(shù)界研究成果主要針對全國及某些大城市的地價房價關(guān)系,但對武漢市房價與地價關(guān)系的研究比較少,但對武漢市房價與地價關(guān)系的研究比較少,而且從宏觀層面研究其關(guān)系的較多,從微觀層面研究其關(guān)系的較少。鑒于此,本文中把武漢市商品住宅用地價格與商品住宅房價作為研究對象,重點(diǎn)計量分析了武漢市商品住宅地價與房價的因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行計量分析,并對商品住宅地價與房價之間的相互影響進(jìn)行深入探討,從宏觀和微觀兩個層面進(jìn)行互動關(guān)系的研究,探索商品住宅地價在房價上漲中的作用,為政府規(guī)范房地產(chǎn)市場、建立公開公平的房地產(chǎn)交易環(huán)境、制定有效的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。 本文采用定量分析及計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的Granger因果分析方法,對商品住宅價格及地價的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析。首先通過武漢市宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展數(shù)據(jù)、房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)指標(biāo)對武漢市房地產(chǎn)市場的運(yùn)行狀況進(jìn)行宏觀層面的分析,旨在為商品住宅價格及地價的關(guān)系研究提供全面的研究背景,為后面的實(shí)證分析提供必要的依據(jù),然后采用Granger因果檢驗方法,對武漢市2006年第一季度至2013年第四季度商品住宅價格和地價進(jìn)行因果檢驗,并建立誤差修正模型,研究二者之間的短期與長期的時序互動關(guān)系。最后,根據(jù)Granger因果檢驗結(jié)果,采用定量分析的方法分析武漢市商品住宅地價占房價的比例,通過網(wǎng)上查詢和實(shí)地調(diào)查搜集得到武漢市主城區(qū)2006年至2013年內(nèi)部分通過土地“招拍掛”建成的商品住宅樓盤的地價和房價,計算地價占房價的比例,并從宏觀和微觀兩個層面探索武漢市商品住宅地價房價比的變化特征,解釋兩者之間的變動規(guī)律,為分析地價在房價上漲中的作用提供參考。 根據(jù)以上的研究,得出的結(jié)果表明： (1)短期來看,武漢市地價與房價之間存在相互影響作用,地價對房價的影響作用較為顯著,房價圍繞長期均衡的短期波動比較穩(wěn)定,地價則相反；長期來看,地價與房價之間存在長期均衡關(guān)系,且地價是房價的Granger原因。 (2)武漢市地價房價比處于較低水平,土地成本在房價中所占比例不大,對房價有一定的影響,但作用有限,武漢市的部分高房價并不是地價導(dǎo)致的,且地價比房價更為敏感,更易受到社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響。地價占房價的比例未出現(xiàn)隨時間的變化而變化的特征,不具備一定的規(guī)律性,武漢市地價占房價的比例不符合房價越高,地價所占的比例越高的一般規(guī)律,存在高房價項目利潤過大的情形,有的項目,房價越高,地價房價比越低。 因此,本文從研究結(jié)果出發(fā),提出調(diào)控土地市場,發(fā)揮地價對房價的能動作用,并制定相關(guān)政策,抑制房價過熱,調(diào)節(jié)住房市場供應(yīng),建立房地產(chǎn)價格評價體系,客觀合理分析房價。
[Abstract]:Since the commercialized supply of housing and the market trading of land, with the rapid and rapid development of the national macro-economy and the rapid increase of the disposable income of the residents, the commodity housing market and the land leasing market in China have developed and flourished, making the urban housing price and land price rising continuously. The price of commodity housing and the land price are fast. The rapid rise and the relationship between them have become the focus and focus of the government, the real estate industry and the academia. The existing academic research results mainly focus on the land price relationship between the country and some big cities, but there are few studies on the relationship between the house price and the land price in Wuhan, but the research on the relationship between the house price and the land price in Wuhan is compared. In view of this, the paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of the causal relationship between the land price and the house price in Wuhan and the commodity housing. The interaction between the land price and the house price is deeply discussed, and the interaction relationship between the macro and micro two levels is studied, and the role of the commodity housing land price in the price rise is explored. It provides a scientific basis for the government to standardize the real estate market, establish a fair and fair real estate transaction environment and formulate an effective real estate regulation policy.
In this paper, the relationship between commodity housing price and land price is analyzed by means of Granger causality analysis in quantitative analysis and econometrics. First, through the macro economic development data of Wuhan, the real estate industry index has made a macro analysis on the running status of the real estate market in Wuhan, aiming at the price and land of the commodity housing. The relationship research provides a comprehensive research background, provides the necessary basis for the subsequent empirical analysis, and then uses the Granger causality test method to test the commodity housing prices and land prices in Wuhan from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2013 in 2006, and establishes an error correction model to study the short-term and long-term time between the two. In the end, according to the result of Granger causality test, the proportion of the land price in Wuhan is analyzed by quantitative analysis, and the land price and house price in the main city of Wuhan from 2006 to 2013 are collected through online inquiry and field investigation. The ratio of land price to house price is calculated, and the change characteristics of the price ratio of Wuhan commodity housing land price in Wuhan city are explored from the macro and micro levels, and the change law between the two is explained, which provides a reference for the analysis of the role of land price in the rise of house prices.
According to the above study, the results show that:
(1) in the short term, there is a mutual influence between the land price and the house price in Wuhan, and the effect of land price on the house price is more significant. The price of the house price is more stable around the long-term equilibrium and the land price is opposite. In the long run, there is a long-term equilibrium between the land price and the house price, and the land price is the Granger reason of the house price.
(2) the ratio of land price to house price in Wuhan is low, the proportion of land cost in house price is small, it has certain influence on house price, but the effect is limited, the part of high house price in Wuhan is not caused by the land price, and the land price is more sensitive than the house price, and it is more susceptible to the influence of the social economic development. The proportion of land price in the house price has not appeared with the time. The characteristics of change and change do not have certain regularity. The proportion of land price in Wuhan is not in accordance with the higher price of the house price, the higher the proportion of land price, the higher the price of the high price of the project, the higher the house price, the lower the price ratio of the land price.
Therefore, this paper, starting from the research results, proposes to regulate the land market, play the dynamic role of land price to the house price, and formulate relevant policies to restrain the overheating of house prices, regulate the supply of housing market, establish the evaluation system of real estate price, and objectively and rationally analyze the house price.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.27;F301.4

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