機動車交通事故責任強制保險定價研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-01-04 23:53
【摘要】： 我國機動車交通事故責任強制保險制度(簡稱交強險)從2006年7月1日實施已有兩年多的時間,該制度充分發(fā)揮了其社會管理職能,有效地保障了人民生命財產(chǎn)安全,對促進道路交通安全、維護社會穩(wěn)定也發(fā)揮了巨大的作用,交強險以不贏不虧為經(jīng)營原則更是體現(xiàn)了以人為本的精神。 交強險制度發(fā)揮了諸多積極作用,但是同時由于制度本身的不完善,存在的各種問題也逐步顯現(xiàn)出來,與交強險費率相關的問題更是人們關注的焦點,對于交強險費率水平的質(zhì)疑一直存在。本文分析了交強險實施中面臨的各種問題,以山東省某市的交強險業(yè)務數(shù)據(jù)為基礎,研究了費率改革前該市交強險業(yè)務經(jīng)營狀況,運用非壽險精算定價方法厘定出交強險費率,并與新的費率方案做了對比分析。 論文由以下六部分組成。 第一部分為引言,介紹了我國交強險的發(fā)展背景以及現(xiàn)狀,指出研究我國交強險定價的現(xiàn)實意義,并以國內(nèi)外學者對定價理論的研究為基礎,為接下來的研究做準備。 第二部分系統(tǒng)闡述了交強險的發(fā)展歷程,研究了交強險實施過程中遇到的三個主要問題,即投保率低、投保人負擔加重、現(xiàn)行墊付制度難以實現(xiàn)等,對交強險和一般的商業(yè)第三者責任險進行了詳細的比較分析。 第三部分分析了交強險責任限額設定的合理性,研究了交強險費率厘定過程中的問題,總結(jié)了交強險費率結(jié)構(gòu)和費率水平方面存在的問題,并提出了解決問題的方法建議。 第四部分總結(jié)了交強險的定價目標,研究了效用理論、資本資產(chǎn)定價模型和非壽險精算定價方法,并對三種方法進行對比分析,最后得出結(jié)論,傳統(tǒng)的非壽險定價方法是最適合交強險的定價方法。 第五部分對交強險定價進行了實證研究。本部分以山東省XX市的交強險各項數(shù)據(jù)為基礎,首先分析了費率改革前該市交強險的盈利狀況,認為費率改革前交強險業(yè)務存在盈利。然后論文采用非壽險精算定價方法對交強險定價。從理論上講,純保費是期望索賠頻率與期望索賠額的乘積,本章根據(jù)可得數(shù)據(jù),以泊松分布模型擬合交強險的次數(shù),以指數(shù)分布模型擬合交強險賠付額,同時采用大數(shù)定律估計風險附加,由中國人民財產(chǎn)保險公司經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)得出費用附加率,從而厘定出交強險總的保費,與現(xiàn)行的費率方案進行了比較分析。 第六部分根據(jù)前面的定性定量的研究結(jié)論,有針對性地提出了我國實施交強險的政策建議。
[Abstract]:It has been more than two years since July 1, 2006, when the compulsory insurance system for motor vehicle traffic accident liability has been implemented in China. The system has brought into full play its social management function and effectively guaranteed the safety of people's lives and property. It also plays a great role in promoting road traffic safety and maintaining social stability. The traffic insurance system has played a lot of positive roles, but at the same time, due to the imperfection of the system itself, the existing problems have gradually emerged, and the problems related to the traffic insurance rate have become the focus of people's attention. For the traffic insurance rate level of doubt has always existed. This paper analyzes the various problems faced in the implementation of traffic strong insurance, based on the traffic strength insurance business data of a certain city in Shandong Province, studies the operation status of the traffic strong insurance business in the city before the rate reform, and uses the non-life insurance actuarial pricing method to determine the traffic strong insurance rate. And compared with the new rate scheme. The thesis consists of the following six parts. The first part is the introduction, introduces the development background and the present situation of our country's traffic insurance, points out the realistic significance of studying the pricing of our country's traffic insurance, and based on the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the pricing theory, makes preparations for the next research. The second part systematically expounds the development course of the traffic insurance, studies the three main problems encountered in the implementation process of the traffic insurance, that is, the low insurance rate, the heavier burden of the insured, the difficult to realize the current advance payment system and so on. This paper makes a detailed comparison and analysis of the commercial third party liability insurance between traffic insurance and general commercial third party liability insurance. The third part analyzes the rationality of the liability limit, studies the problems in the process of determining the premium rate, summarizes the existing problems in the structure and level of the premium rate, and puts forward some suggestions to solve the problem. The fourth part summarizes the pricing objectives of traffic insurance, studies the utility theory, capital asset pricing model and non-life insurance actuarial pricing methods, and makes a comparative analysis of the three methods, finally comes to a conclusion. Traditional non-life insurance pricing method is the most suitable for traffic insurance pricing method. The fifth part has carried on the empirical research to the traffic insurance pricing. Based on the data of XX in Shandong Province, this part firstly analyzes the profit situation of the traffic insurance before the rate reform, and thinks that there is profit in the traffic insurance business before the rate reform. Then the thesis adopts the non-life insurance actuarial pricing method to the traffic strong insurance pricing. Theoretically speaking, the pure premium is the product of the expected claim frequency and the expected claim amount. According to the available data, this chapter uses Poisson distribution model to fit the times of traffic insurance, and exponential distribution model to fit the compensation amount. At the same time, the law of large numbers is used to estimate the risk surcharge, and from the experience data of the Chinese people's property insurance company, the additional cost ratio is obtained, and the total premium of the traffic insurance is determined, which is compared with the current rate scheme. The sixth part, according to the qualitative and quantitative research conclusions, puts forward the policy recommendations of implementing traffic insurance in China.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2009
【分類號】：F842;F224
本文編號：2400972
[Abstract]:It has been more than two years since July 1, 2006, when the compulsory insurance system for motor vehicle traffic accident liability has been implemented in China. The system has brought into full play its social management function and effectively guaranteed the safety of people's lives and property. It also plays a great role in promoting road traffic safety and maintaining social stability. The traffic insurance system has played a lot of positive roles, but at the same time, due to the imperfection of the system itself, the existing problems have gradually emerged, and the problems related to the traffic insurance rate have become the focus of people's attention. For the traffic insurance rate level of doubt has always existed. This paper analyzes the various problems faced in the implementation of traffic strong insurance, based on the traffic strength insurance business data of a certain city in Shandong Province, studies the operation status of the traffic strong insurance business in the city before the rate reform, and uses the non-life insurance actuarial pricing method to determine the traffic strong insurance rate. And compared with the new rate scheme. The thesis consists of the following six parts. The first part is the introduction, introduces the development background and the present situation of our country's traffic insurance, points out the realistic significance of studying the pricing of our country's traffic insurance, and based on the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the pricing theory, makes preparations for the next research. The second part systematically expounds the development course of the traffic insurance, studies the three main problems encountered in the implementation process of the traffic insurance, that is, the low insurance rate, the heavier burden of the insured, the difficult to realize the current advance payment system and so on. This paper makes a detailed comparison and analysis of the commercial third party liability insurance between traffic insurance and general commercial third party liability insurance. The third part analyzes the rationality of the liability limit, studies the problems in the process of determining the premium rate, summarizes the existing problems in the structure and level of the premium rate, and puts forward some suggestions to solve the problem. The fourth part summarizes the pricing objectives of traffic insurance, studies the utility theory, capital asset pricing model and non-life insurance actuarial pricing methods, and makes a comparative analysis of the three methods, finally comes to a conclusion. Traditional non-life insurance pricing method is the most suitable for traffic insurance pricing method. The fifth part has carried on the empirical research to the traffic insurance pricing. Based on the data of XX in Shandong Province, this part firstly analyzes the profit situation of the traffic insurance before the rate reform, and thinks that there is profit in the traffic insurance business before the rate reform. Then the thesis adopts the non-life insurance actuarial pricing method to the traffic strong insurance pricing. Theoretically speaking, the pure premium is the product of the expected claim frequency and the expected claim amount. According to the available data, this chapter uses Poisson distribution model to fit the times of traffic insurance, and exponential distribution model to fit the compensation amount. At the same time, the law of large numbers is used to estimate the risk surcharge, and from the experience data of the Chinese people's property insurance company, the additional cost ratio is obtained, and the total premium of the traffic insurance is determined, which is compared with the current rate scheme. The sixth part, according to the qualitative and quantitative research conclusions, puts forward the policy recommendations of implementing traffic insurance in China.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2009
【分類號】：F842;F224
【引證文獻】
相關碩士學位論文 前3條
1 陳斌;浙江省實施交通違法信息與交強險費率掛鉤方案研究[D];浙江大學;2011年
2 張楓;論我國交強險制度的缺陷與完善[D];華東政法大學;2011年
3 彭曉莉;我國交強險賠償制度研究[D];山東財經(jīng)大學;2012年
，本文編號：2400972
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