【摘要】：本文利用省際層面空間面板數(shù)據(jù),實(shí)證分析了影響壽險(xiǎn)退保率的主要因素。基于危機(jī)傳染理論和退保行為的空間相關(guān),首次提出影響退保行為的凈傳染假說,為解釋退保行為增加了一個(gè)新理論,并在此基礎(chǔ)上驗(yàn)證了應(yīng)急資金假說、市場(chǎng)利率假說和產(chǎn)品替代假說能否解釋中國的退保行為。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,退保行為在空間上存在凈傳染效應(yīng),它支持市場(chǎng)利率假說和保單替代假說,認(rèn)同失業(yè)率衡量的應(yīng)急資金假說。對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理后發(fā)現(xiàn),市場(chǎng)利率假說對(duì)退保行為影響最大,依次是應(yīng)急資金和產(chǎn)品替代假說。依據(jù)凈傳染效應(yīng)這一解釋退保行為的新視角,實(shí)證結(jié)論將更加精確,由此為保險(xiǎn)公司管理層和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的決策提供重要依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Based on the interprovincial spatial panel data, this paper empirically analyzes the main factors that affect the life insurance withdrawal rate. Based on the spatial correlation between the theory of crisis contagion and the behavior of reinsurance, the net contagion hypothesis which affects the behavior of reinsurance is proposed for the first time, and a new theory is added to explain the behavior of reinsurance, and on this basis, the hypothesis of emergency funds is verified. Can the market interest rate hypothesis and the product substitution hypothesis explain China's withdrawal behavior. The empirical results show that there is a net contagion effect in the behavior of reinsurance, which supports the market interest rate hypothesis and the policy substitution hypothesis, and agrees with the contingency fund hypothesis which is measured by the unemployment rate. It is found that the market interest rate hypothesis has the greatest influence on the refunding behavior, followed by the emergent fund and product substitution hypothesis. According to the new perspective of net contagion effect, the empirical conclusions will be more accurate, which provides an important basis for the decision-making of insurance company management and regulatory bodies.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;石河子大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F842.6
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本文編號(hào)：2381116