【摘要】：我國統(tǒng)賬結(jié)合的養(yǎng)老保險制度，在理論上能夠克服現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制無法應(yīng)對人口老齡化和完全積累制沒有再分配功能的缺陷，是一種比較理想的模式，然而運城市近年來的實踐并沒能證明這種實踐的優(yōu)越性，目前運城市基本養(yǎng)老保險面臨著支付危機。根據(jù)運城市養(yǎng)老保險管理服務(wù)中心的統(tǒng)計年報數(shù)據(jù)及相關(guān)調(diào)查資料，我們初步提煉了運城市基本養(yǎng)老保險的發(fā)展概況，從中我們發(fā)現(xiàn)運城市基本養(yǎng)老保險發(fā)展過程中存在著嚴重的基金收支不平衡現(xiàn)象。運城市基本養(yǎng)老保險基金長期處于收不抵支的狀態(tài)，并且基金缺口近年來呈逐年拉大的趨勢，基金支付壓力巨大。這些不平衡現(xiàn)象嚴重影響著運城市養(yǎng)老保險事業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。巨大的基金缺口依靠政府財政補貼才能按時足額發(fā)放。 本篇論文根據(jù)我國基本養(yǎng)老保險現(xiàn)行制度，，建立數(shù)學(xué)預(yù)測模型，演繹運城市未來養(yǎng)老保險基金運行狀況。構(gòu)建基金收入模型和基金支出預(yù)測模型以及基金滾存結(jié)余模型。參數(shù)的設(shè)置是在考慮國家以及山西省的養(yǎng)老保險有關(guān)政策基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)運城市養(yǎng)老保險管理服務(wù)中心統(tǒng)計年報數(shù)據(jù)以及運城市國民經(jīng)濟與社會發(fā)展統(tǒng)計公報數(shù)據(jù)加以預(yù)測而給出的。根據(jù)預(yù)測模型演化數(shù)據(jù)，5年的預(yù)測期間內(nèi)，運城市基本養(yǎng)老保險基金仍將繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)收不抵支的狀態(tài)，必須動用過去的積累基金補充收支缺口，但到2016年末過去積累的基金將被全部用完并出現(xiàn)赤字。隨著老齡化的加劇，如果沒有政府財政補貼，運城市基本養(yǎng)老保險基金在長期內(nèi)是缺乏自我償付能力的。在模型基礎(chǔ)上分析影響基金收支失衡的因素，并結(jié)合國情和運城市具體情況提出彌補收支缺口的應(yīng)對措施，迫在眉睫。 本文以研究基本養(yǎng)老保險基金平衡為中心，分析運城市養(yǎng)老保險基金在實際運營中存在的收不抵支問題現(xiàn)狀，剖析其主要影響因素有養(yǎng)老金替代率高、養(yǎng)老保險負擔(dān)過重等制度性因素以及收繳率低、養(yǎng)老保險基金運營收益率低等非制度性因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上提出對策建議，主要有發(fā)展補充養(yǎng)老保險、逐步延長退休年齡等制度性建議以及提高養(yǎng)老保險收繳率和進行多元化投資以確保養(yǎng)老保險基金的保值增值等技術(shù)性建議。
[Abstract]:The old-age insurance system of the unified account system in our country can overcome the defect that the pay-as-you-go system can't cope with the aging of population and the complete accumulation system has no redistribution function in theory. It is an ideal model. However, Yuncheng's practice in recent years has not proved the superiority of this practice. At present, Yuncheng's basic old-age insurance is facing. According to the statistic annual report data of Yuncheng Endowment Insurance Management Service Center and related investigation data, we have preliminarily refined the general situation of Yuncheng Basic Endowment Insurance, from which we find that there is a serious imbalance of fund income and expenditure in the development of Yuncheng Basic Endowment Insurance. The insurance fund has long been in a state of overpayment, and the gap of the fund has been widening year by year in recent years. The fund payment pressure is enormous. These imbalances seriously affect the sustainable development of Yuncheng's endowment insurance.
Based on the current system of basic endowment insurance in China, this paper establishes a mathematical forecasting model to deduce the future operation of endowment insurance funds in Yuncheng City. According to the statistical data of Yuncheng Endowment Insurance Management Service Center and Yuncheng National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, this paper predicts that the basic endowment insurance fund in Yuncheng will continue to be in a state of overwhelming income and must use the past accumulation during the five-year forecast period. The accumulative fund will replenish the gap between revenue and expenditure, but the funds accumulated in the past will be exhausted and run into deficit by the end of 2016. With the aggravation of aging, Yuncheng Basic Endowment Insurance Fund is short of self-solvency in the long run without government financial subsidy. It is imminent to propose measures to make up for the gap between the national conditions and the specific circumstances of Yuncheng.
Based on the study of the balance of the basic pension fund, this paper analyzes the current situation of the problem of overpayment in the actual operation of Yuncheng pension fund, and analyzes the main influencing factors, such as the high replacement rate of pension, the heavy burden of pension insurance and other institutional factors, as well as the low collection rate and the low operating rate of the pension fund. On this basis, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, such as the development of supplementary endowment insurance, the gradual extension of retirement age and other institutional suggestions, as well as technical suggestions to improve the collection rate of endowment insurance and diversification of investment to ensure the preservation and appreciation of the endowment insurance fund.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842.67

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