發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-23 10:40

【摘要】：我國(guó)統(tǒng)賬結(jié)合的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度，在理論上能夠克服現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制無(wú)法應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化和完全積累制沒(méi)有再分配功能的缺陷，是一種比較理想的模式，然而運(yùn)城市近年來(lái)的實(shí)踐并沒(méi)能證明這種實(shí)踐的優(yōu)越性，目前運(yùn)城市基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)面臨著支付危機(jī)。根據(jù)運(yùn)城市養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)管理服務(wù)中心的統(tǒng)計(jì)年報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)及相關(guān)調(diào)查資料，我們初步提煉了運(yùn)城市基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的發(fā)展概況，從中我們發(fā)現(xiàn)運(yùn)城市基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展過(guò)程中存在著嚴(yán)重的基金收支不平衡現(xiàn)象。運(yùn)城市基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金長(zhǎng)期處于收不抵支的狀態(tài)，并且基金缺口近年來(lái)呈逐年拉大的趨勢(shì)，基金支付壓力巨大。這些不平衡現(xiàn)象嚴(yán)重影響著運(yùn)城市養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)事業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。巨大的基金缺口依靠政府財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼才能按時(shí)足額發(fā)放。 本篇論文根據(jù)我國(guó)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)行制度，，建立數(shù)學(xué)預(yù)測(cè)模型，演繹運(yùn)城市未來(lái)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金運(yùn)行狀況。構(gòu)建基金收入模型和基金支出預(yù)測(cè)模型以及基金滾存結(jié)余模型。參數(shù)的設(shè)置是在考慮國(guó)家以及山西省的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)有關(guān)政策基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)運(yùn)城市養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)管理服務(wù)中心統(tǒng)計(jì)年報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)以及運(yùn)城市國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)發(fā)展統(tǒng)計(jì)公報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)加以預(yù)測(cè)而給出的。根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)模型演化數(shù)據(jù)，5年的預(yù)測(cè)期間內(nèi)，運(yùn)城市基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金仍將繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)收不抵支的狀態(tài)，必須動(dòng)用過(guò)去的積累基金補(bǔ)充收支缺口，但到2016年末過(guò)去積累的基金將被全部用完并出現(xiàn)赤字。隨著老齡化的加劇，如果沒(méi)有政府財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼，運(yùn)城市基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)是缺乏自我償付能力的。在模型基礎(chǔ)上分析影響基金收支失衡的因素，并結(jié)合國(guó)情和運(yùn)城市具體情況提出彌補(bǔ)收支缺口的應(yīng)對(duì)措施，迫在眉睫。 本文以研究基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金平衡為中心，分析運(yùn)城市養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金在實(shí)際運(yùn)營(yíng)中存在的收不抵支問(wèn)題現(xiàn)狀，剖析其主要影響因素有養(yǎng)老金替代率高、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)負(fù)擔(dān)過(guò)重等制度性因素以及收繳率低、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金運(yùn)營(yíng)收益率低等非制度性因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上提出對(duì)策建議，主要有發(fā)展補(bǔ)充養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)、逐步延長(zhǎng)退休年齡等制度性建議以及提高養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)收繳率和進(jìn)行多元化投資以確保養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的保值增值等技術(shù)性建議。
[Abstract]:The old-age insurance system of the unified account system in our country can overcome the defect that the pay-as-you-go system can't cope with the aging of population and the complete accumulation system has no redistribution function in theory. It is an ideal model. However, Yuncheng's practice in recent years has not proved the superiority of this practice. At present, Yuncheng's basic old-age insurance is facing. According to the statistic annual report data of Yuncheng Endowment Insurance Management Service Center and related investigation data, we have preliminarily refined the general situation of Yuncheng Basic Endowment Insurance, from which we find that there is a serious imbalance of fund income and expenditure in the development of Yuncheng Basic Endowment Insurance. The insurance fund has long been in a state of overpayment, and the gap of the fund has been widening year by year in recent years. The fund payment pressure is enormous. These imbalances seriously affect the sustainable development of Yuncheng's endowment insurance.
Based on the current system of basic endowment insurance in China, this paper establishes a mathematical forecasting model to deduce the future operation of endowment insurance funds in Yuncheng City. According to the statistical data of Yuncheng Endowment Insurance Management Service Center and Yuncheng National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, this paper predicts that the basic endowment insurance fund in Yuncheng will continue to be in a state of overwhelming income and must use the past accumulation during the five-year forecast period. The accumulative fund will replenish the gap between revenue and expenditure, but the funds accumulated in the past will be exhausted and run into deficit by the end of 2016. With the aggravation of aging, Yuncheng Basic Endowment Insurance Fund is short of self-solvency in the long run without government financial subsidy. It is imminent to propose measures to make up for the gap between the national conditions and the specific circumstances of Yuncheng.
Based on the study of the balance of the basic pension fund, this paper analyzes the current situation of the problem of overpayment in the actual operation of Yuncheng pension fund, and analyzes the main influencing factors, such as the high replacement rate of pension, the heavy burden of pension insurance and other institutional factors, as well as the low collection rate and the low operating rate of the pension fund. On this basis, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, such as the development of supplementary endowment insurance, the gradual extension of retirement age and other institutional suggestions, as well as technical suggestions to improve the collection rate of endowment insurance and diversification of investment to ensure the preservation and appreciation of the endowment insurance fund.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67

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