發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-15 07:24

  本文選題：創(chuàng)業(yè)板 + 市場泡沫　； 參考：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場自2009年10月30日正式開市交易以來，一定程度上緩解了部分高科技和高成長性中小企業(yè)的融資瓶頸，促進(jìn)了新興產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，提高了社會(huì)整體的創(chuàng)新效率，開辟了資本市場投資的新方向，因此創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場對(duì)深化資本市場，轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式，完善多層次資本體系，豐富資本市場結(jié)構(gòu)具有重要的意義。 但是，在我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場發(fā)展過程中出現(xiàn)了許多不成熟的地方，高股價(jià)、高市盈率、高募資等“三高”現(xiàn)象雖得到一定程度的緩解，但仍然多次出現(xiàn)明顯的泡沫化趨勢，影響了正常的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行、金融系統(tǒng)的安全性和財(cái)富分配與投融資決策的正確性，并涉及到投資者的切身利益，因此，對(duì)我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場泡沫進(jìn)行測度，不僅能防范和化解股市風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而且可以促進(jìn)我國中小企業(yè)良好健康的發(fā)展以及國民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的增長。 本文的主要研究內(nèi)容如下： 首先論文梳理了股市泡沫的理論研究淵源，分析了泡沫與股票泡沫的內(nèi)涵，股票市場泡沫的特征，并對(duì)理性泡沫和非理性泡沫的內(nèi)涵和數(shù)學(xué)模型進(jìn)行理論剖析。在此基礎(chǔ)上，，分析了我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場的特征，股票泡沫的形成原因，并分析了創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場泡沫所產(chǎn)生的積極與消極影響。 其次，從市盈率、市凈率、泡沫度和泡沫系數(shù)四個(gè)指標(biāo)對(duì)我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場的泡沫程度進(jìn)行分析。對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場各月份市盈率與成熟二板市場的市盈率進(jìn)行比較分析；從市凈率角度分析我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場的泡沫程度；并通過計(jì)算我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場的泡沫度和泡沫系數(shù)進(jìn)一步分析我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股市泡沫的變化趨勢，并對(duì)各指標(biāo)測度結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析與總結(jié)。 再次，利用CAPM模型測算投資者預(yù)期收益率，運(yùn)用戈登（Gordon）模型估算投資回收期，并在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用剩余收益模型對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場合理市盈率和泡沫程度進(jìn)行測度。為更明確創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場合理市盈率的波動(dòng)范圍，在理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上，確定了合理市盈率的理論上限和理論下限，并對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析。 最后，從上市公司角度、投資者角度、監(jiān)管與市場角度，提出降低我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場泡沫程度的政策與建議。 論文主要在以下兩個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了創(chuàng)新性探討： （1）本文在測度中國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場泡沫問題上，對(duì)中國創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場市盈率與美國NASDAQ、臺(tái)灣OTC、韓國KOSDAQ、香港創(chuàng)業(yè)板的市盈率進(jìn)行比較。為更具體和清晰的分析創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場的泡沫程度與趨勢，以季度為時(shí)間分割點(diǎn)對(duì)其泡沫度和泡沫系數(shù)進(jìn)行測算。 （2）論文考慮了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)因素的影響，并結(jié)合上證指數(shù)和深證綜合指數(shù)計(jì)算貝塔系數(shù)，在此基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合資本資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型（CAPM）測算投資者預(yù)期收益率，運(yùn)用戈登（Gordon）模型的數(shù)學(xué)表達(dá)式測算投資者預(yù)期的投資回收期，并運(yùn)用剩余收益模型對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板股票市場泡沫進(jìn)行模型測度，使得測度結(jié)果更具有可置信和有效性。
[Abstract]:Since the opening of the market in October 30, 2009, the gem stock market in China has alleviated the financing bottleneck of some high-tech and high growth SMEs to a certain extent, promoted the adjustment of the new industrial structure, improved the innovation efficiency of the whole society and opened a new direction for the capital market investment. Therefore, the gem stock market is the same. It is of great significance to deepen the capital market, transform the mode of economic growth, improve the multi-level capital system and enrich the capital market structure.
However, there are many immature places in the development of the gem stock market in China. The "three high" phenomena such as high stock price, Gao Shiying rate and high fund raising have been alleviated to a certain extent, but there are still many obvious bubble trends, which affect the normal economic transportation, the security of the financial system and the distribution of wealth and investment and financing. The correctness of the decision is related to the vital interests of the investors. Therefore, the measurement of the bubble in the Chinese gem stock market can not only prevent and dissolve the stock market risk, but also promote the healthy and healthy development of the small and medium enterprises in China and the sustained and stable growth of the national economy.
The main contents of this paper are as follows:
First, the thesis combs the theoretical origin of the stock market bubble, analyzes the connotation of bubble and stock bubble, the characteristics of the stock market bubble, and analyses the connotation and mathematical model of rational bubble and irrational bubble. On this basis, it analyzes the characteristics of the stock market in China's gem, the causes of the formation of the stock bubble and the distribution of the stock bubble. This paper analyzes the positive and negative effects of the bubble in the growth enterprise market.
Secondly, this paper analyzes the bubble degree of China's gem stock market from four indexes of P / E ratio, city net rate, bubble degree and bubble coefficient. The price earnings ratio of each month's earnings ratio in the gem and the mature second board market is compared and analyzed. The bubble degree of the stock market in China is analyzed from the point of view of the market net rate; and the calculation is calculated. The bubble degree and bubble coefficient of China's gem stock market further analyze the change trend of China's gem stock market bubble, and analyze and summarize the results of each index measure.
Thirdly, the CAPM model is used to estimate the expected return rate of investors, and the Gordon (Gordon) model is used to estimate the investment recovery period. On this basis, the residual income model is used to measure the reasonable price earnings ratio and the degree of the bubble in the gem stock market. The basis of the theoretical research is to make a clearer analysis of the range of the reasonable price earnings ratio of the gem stock market. The theoretical upper limit and the lower theoretical limit of the reasonable price earnings ratio are determined, and the empirical results are analyzed.
Finally, from the perspective of listed companies, from the perspective of investors, from the perspective of regulation and market, we put forward policies and suggestions to reduce the bubble level of China's gem stock market.
The paper mainly discusses the following two aspects:
(1) this paper compares the P / E ratio of the Chinese gem stock market to the NASDAQ, Taiwan OTC, South Korea KOSDAQ, and the Hongkong gem, and analyzes the bubble range and trend of the gem stock market in a more specific and clear way, and takes the quarter as the time dividing point to its bubble degree. And the foam coefficient is measured.
(2) the paper considers the impact of risk premium factors and calculates the beta coefficient combined with the Shanghai stock index and the Shenzhen composite index. On this basis, it calculates the expected return of investors with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), and uses the mathematical expression of Gordon (Gordon) model to calculate the expected investment recovery period and use the residual income model. The model is used to measure the bubbles in the gem stock market, which makes the measurement results more believable and effective.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F224

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本文編號(hào)：2021205