發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-07 16:21

【摘要】：隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,國(guó)內(nèi)大型活動(dòng)的舉行數(shù)量日趨增多,致使在有限的公共空間中人群活動(dòng)的頻度和密度極度增長(zhǎng),從而使由人群膨脹聚集導(dǎo)致的踩踏事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率大為提高。目前對(duì)大型活動(dòng)踩踏事故的研究缺乏對(duì)其自身危險(xiǎn)性的有效評(píng)價(jià),安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制尚無成熟的理論方法,現(xiàn)有理論模型和方法缺乏通用性。因而,建立一套適用于大型活動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型顯得尤為重要。本文基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)危機(jī)管理的視角,通過對(duì)中外大型活動(dòng)踩踏致因的剖析和歸結(jié),從大型活動(dòng)場(chǎng)所的設(shè)施設(shè)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、人群因素和構(gòu)建物設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、外部環(huán)境因素等方面分析其踩踏事故的原因,著重強(qiáng)調(diào)預(yù)防及控制踩踏事故的關(guān)鍵是提高安全管理水平,加強(qiáng)人群的安全疏導(dǎo)和教育等。本文通過案例分析法,借鑒現(xiàn)有學(xué)者的踩踏事故指標(biāo)體系研究成果,并引入事故樹法,追蹤大型活動(dòng)踩踏事故的致因規(guī)律,構(gòu)建了大型活動(dòng)踩踏事故樹。針對(duì)踩踏事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中傳統(tǒng)數(shù)學(xué)模型難以量化的難題,通過構(gòu)建大型活動(dòng)踩踏事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,在綜合權(quán)衡其他各種安全評(píng)價(jià)方法優(yōu)劣的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了適合大型活動(dòng)踩踏事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)安全評(píng)價(jià)方法——突變級(jí)數(shù)法,并對(duì)大型活動(dòng)踩踏事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行測(cè)評(píng),得到的量化評(píng)估值與實(shí)際情況吻合。實(shí)例驗(yàn)證表明,本文所構(gòu)建的指標(biāo)體系和所采用的評(píng)估方法可以很好的解決踩踏事故危害評(píng)估難題,為防患踩踏事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)給予可靠的理論和方法支持。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy, the number of large-scale activities in China is increasing day by day, resulting in the extreme increase in the frequency and density of crowd activities in the limited public space. As a result, the risk probability of stampede accident caused by crowd expansion and aggregation is greatly increased. At present, the research on stampede accident of large-scale activities is lack of effective evaluation of its own risk, there is no mature theoretical method of safety risk control, and the existing theoretical models and methods are lack of generality. Therefore, it is particularly important to establish a set of risk evaluation index system and risk evaluation model suitable for large-scale activities. Based on the perspective of risk crisis management, this paper analyzes and sums up the causes of stampede in large-scale activities at home and abroad, from the facilities and equipment risks, crowd factors and construction design risks of large-scale event places. The causes of stampede accident are analyzed from the aspects of external environmental factors, and it is emphasized that the key to prevent and control stampede accident is to improve the level of safety management and strengthen the safety guidance and education of the crowd. Through the case analysis method, this paper draws lessons from the existing scholars' research results of stampede accident index system, and introduces the accident tree method to track the cause law of stampede accident in large-scale activities, and constructs the stampede accident tree of large-scale activities. In order to solve the problem that the traditional mathematical model is difficult to quantify the risk of stampede accident, by constructing the risk evaluation index system of stampede accident in large-scale activities, on the basis of comprehensively weighing the advantages and disadvantages of other safety evaluation methods, The sudden change series method, which is suitable for the risk safety assessment of stampede accidents in large-scale activities, is put forward, and the risk of stampede accidents in large-scale activities is evaluated. The quantitative evaluation value is in good agreement with the actual situation. The example shows that the index system and the assessment method used in this paper can solve the problem of stampede hazard assessment, and give reliable theoretical and methodological support for the prevention of stampede accident risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：D63

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