發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-01 22:09

  本文選題：主權(quán)財(cái)富基金 + 對(duì)外投資��； 參考：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：主權(quán)財(cái)富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund, SWFs)作為重要的投資載體,是國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)一類有影響力的投資者,受到了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的廣泛關(guān)注。主權(quán)財(cái)富基金與私人財(cái)富相對(duì)應(yīng),是一國(guó)政府通過特定稅收與預(yù)算分配、可再生自然資源收入和國(guó)際收支盈余等方式積累形成,由政府控制與支配,一般以外幣形式持有的公共財(cái)富。作為我國(guó)SWFs的主要來源,截至2011年底,我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備已達(dá)近3.2萬億美元,為推行外匯資產(chǎn)多元化,防止單一美元資產(chǎn)的縮水,我國(guó)已將超額的外匯儲(chǔ)備轉(zhuǎn)化為國(guó)家主權(quán)財(cái)富基金進(jìn)行管理。次貸危機(jī)發(fā)生以來,外匯儲(chǔ)備國(guó)際分散化和資產(chǎn)多元化逐漸加快,但在花旗、黑石以及其它金融機(jī)構(gòu)的投資虧損影響著SWFs的投資信心和投資成效。 然而,SWFs是代表國(guó)家意志、具有主權(quán)性的投資主體,一方面有追求保值、增值的商業(yè)投資目的,另一方面又需要服務(wù)于國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略意志,服務(wù)于國(guó)家中長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略。正是由于SWFs的政府背景使得許多發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)它表現(xiàn)出了較高的警惕性,主要出于兩方面的擔(dān)憂。其一擔(dān)憂SWFs服務(wù)于政治目的,如軍事戰(zhàn)略產(chǎn)業(yè),其二擔(dān)憂作為潛在的大股東干預(yù)全球市場(chǎng)。結(jié)果使得SWFs的投資領(lǐng)域和途徑大大受到限制。為此,如何繞開東道國(guó)各種壁壘、降低東道國(guó)的警惕性成為迫切需要解決的重要問題。 本文認(rèn)為SWFs對(duì)外戰(zhàn)略投資不僅要考慮已方利益,還要考慮東道國(guó)利益。不僅從理論層面對(duì)SWFs投資戰(zhàn)略進(jìn)行分析,而且要考慮到理論的實(shí)用性和可執(zhí)行性,要建立完備的投資機(jī)制促進(jìn)戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施。本文認(rèn)為SWFs對(duì)外投資不僅應(yīng)與國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略結(jié)合起來,多層次、多渠道、多路徑支持國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,尤其支持國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)、關(guān)鍵行業(yè)和關(guān)鍵區(qū)域的發(fā)展,同時(shí),要與投資東道國(guó)構(gòu)建一種和諧共容機(jī)制,即建立合作機(jī)制實(shí)現(xiàn)讓渡一部分投資價(jià)值予東道國(guó)或?yàn)闁|道國(guó)帶來正的經(jīng)濟(jì)外部性,進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)投資雙方共贏。 圍繞以上問題,論文首先結(jié)合國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,從全球價(jià)值鏈、戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展布局等角度剖析國(guó)家主權(quán)財(cái)富基金(SWFs)在微觀、中觀和宏觀三個(gè)層面的對(duì)外投資選擇,并給出了相應(yīng)的實(shí)現(xiàn)機(jī)制；其次,詳細(xì)分析了提高和諧共容性應(yīng)著重考慮的因素,并給出了與國(guó)外成熟的SWFs、跨國(guó)公司、東道國(guó)政府三種不同投資主體的合作模式,結(jié)合合作博弈給出利益分配方案,構(gòu)建基于動(dòng)態(tài)合作博弈的資產(chǎn)配置模型：第三,基于空間計(jì)量模型對(duì)SWFs進(jìn)行對(duì)外投資與合作需要考慮的宏觀影響要素進(jìn)行識(shí)別,將證券市場(chǎng)指數(shù)作為投資對(duì)象,驗(yàn)證了投資者在資產(chǎn)配置決策中考慮空間相關(guān)性的重要性,建立了各地區(qū)股票指數(shù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、通貨膨脹、貨幣供應(yīng)量、利率水平、匯率、國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備、貿(mào)易總額之間的空間計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,從全球視角對(duì)影響股票價(jià)格指數(shù)的宏觀影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析；第四,從中觀和微觀兩個(gè)層次給出了投資組合選擇,從行業(yè)和企業(yè)兩個(gè)層面選擇入股國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)進(jìn)行積極投資,運(yùn)用DEA模型對(duì)入股企業(yè)進(jìn)行效率評(píng)價(jià)；最后,給出論文的結(jié)論、不足和展望。 本文的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新之處體現(xiàn)在以下幾個(gè)方面：(1)提出SWFs對(duì)外投資不僅應(yīng)與國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略結(jié)合起來,而且要與投資東道國(guó)構(gòu)建一種和諧共容機(jī)制；(2)識(shí)別和分析除投資收益外的更多共容性增長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)要素(國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)需求、對(duì)外讓渡價(jià)值、社會(huì)責(zé)任和道德約束)等；(3)結(jié)合合作聯(lián)盟思想給出我國(guó)SWFs對(duì)外投資與合作戰(zhàn)略的模式,在兼顧我國(guó)SWFs投資收益的同時(shí)合理分配和讓渡投資價(jià)值,搭建透明的合作機(jī)制；(4)鑒于我國(guó)SWFs不可能具備在各個(gè)區(qū)域、行業(yè)具有專業(yè)化的對(duì)外投資能力和經(jīng)驗(yàn),建立多主體目標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型篩選和評(píng)估國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)作為SWFs的投資載體,進(jìn)而降低SWFs對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本研究不僅具有重要的理論意義——豐富和完善SWFs海外投資理論及在全球范圍內(nèi)優(yōu)化資源配置,而且對(duì)提高我國(guó)SWFs與東道國(guó)的和諧共容性,拓寬海外投資渠道,建立專業(yè)化、市場(chǎng)化和多元化的運(yùn)作機(jī)制具有實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)意義,并從實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略發(fā)展的層次支持國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)對(duì)外投資,進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWFs), as an important investment carrier, is a kind of influential investor in the international financial market. It has received wide attention from scholars both at home and abroad. The sovereign wealth fund is corresponding to private wealth. It is a government that can regenerate the income of natural resources and international income through a specific tax and budget allocation. As the main source of SWFs in China, as of the end of 2011, China's foreign exchange reserves have reached nearly 3 trillion and 200 billion dollars. In order to diversify foreign exchange assets and prevent the shrinking of single dollar assets, our country has transformed the excess foreign exchange reserves into the foreign exchange reserves. The national sovereign wealth fund has been managed. Since the subprime crisis, the international decentralization of foreign exchange reserves and the diversification of assets have gradually accelerated, but the investment losses in Citigroup, Blackstone and other financial institutions affect the investment confidence and investment effectiveness of SWFs.
SWFs, however, represents the will of the country and has a sovereign investment subject. On the one hand, it has the purpose of pursuing the value preserving and value-added business. On the other hand, it needs to serve the state's strategic will and serve the medium and long term strategy of the country. It is because of the government background of the SWFs that many countries have shown high vigilance to it, mainly Two concerns. One is worried that SWFs serves the political purpose, such as the military strategic industry, and the second worries as potential large shareholders to intervene in the global market. As a result, the investment fields and ways of SWFs are greatly restricted. Therefore, how to bypass the various barriers of the host country and reduce the vigilance of the host country is an urgent need to be solved. Problem.
This paper holds that SWFs's foreign strategic investment should not only consider the interests of the host country, but also consider the interests of the host country. It not only analyzes the SWFs investment strategy from the theoretical level, but also takes into account the practicability and executability of the theory, and establishes a complete investment mechanism to promote the implementation of the strategy. This article holds that the foreign investment in SWFs should not only be with the national economy. The development strategy is combined, multi-level, multi-channel and multi path to support the development of domestic industry, especially supporting the development of key domestic economic nodes, key industries and key areas. At the same time, it is necessary to build a Harmonious Co accommodation mechanism with the investment host country, that is to establish a cooperative mechanism to realize the transfer of a part of the investment value to the host country or the host country. Positive economic externalities, so as to achieve win-win cooperation between investors.
According to the above problems, the paper first analyzes the three aspects of the national sovereign wealth fund (SWFs) in the micro, medium and macro aspects of foreign investment choice from the perspective of the global value chain, strategic emerging industries, and the distribution of regional economic development. The factors that should be taken into consideration, and give the cooperation mode with three different investment subjects of foreign mature SWFs, MNCs and host government, and combine the cooperative game to give the benefit allocation scheme and build the asset allocation model based on the dynamic cooperative game: Third, the foreign investment and cooperation based on the spatial econometric model. To identify the macro factors that need to be considered and take the stock market index as an investment object to verify the importance of the investor to consider the spatial correlation in the asset allocation decision, and establish the space between the stock index and economic growth, the inflation, the money supply, the rate of interest, the exchange rate, the international reserve and the total trade. The econometric model is an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic factors affecting the stock price index from a global perspective. Fourth, the portfolio selection is given from the middle and micro levels of two levels, from two levels of industry and enterprises to choose the domestic enterprises to invest actively, and the DEA model is used to evaluate the efficiency of the stock enterprises. After that, the conclusion of the paper is given, and the shortage and prospect are given.
The main innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) it is suggested that the SWFs foreign investment should not only be combined with the national economic development strategy, but also to build a Harmonious Co accommodation mechanism with the investment host country; (2) to identify and analyze the economic and social elements of more common growth except the income of investment (domestic industry demand, External transfer value, social responsibility and moral restraint etc.; (3) combining the thought of cooperative alliance to give the mode of China's SWFs foreign investment and cooperation strategy, to allocate and transfer the value of investment reasonably while taking into account the SWFs investment income of our country, and to build a transparent cooperation mechanism. (4) in view of the possibility that our country SWFs is unlikely to have in the various regions, the industry is specialized. The foreign investment ability and experience of the industry, the establishment of multi-agent objective optimization model screening and evaluation of domestic enterprises as the SWFs investment carrier, and then reduce the risk of SWFs investment.
This study not only has important theoretical significance - to enrich and improve the SWFs overseas investment theory and to optimize the allocation of resources globally, but also to improve the harmonious compatibility between China's SWFs and the host country, to broaden the overseas investment channels, to establish a specialized, market-oriented and diversified operation mechanism, and to carry out the practical guidance from the entity classics. The level of economic strategy development supports the foreign investment of domestic enterprises, and then achieves the domestic economic development.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.48;F224

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