低碳經(jīng)濟背景下的中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-03 07:31
【摘要】：低碳經(jīng)濟是人類社會繼農(nóng)業(yè)文明、工業(yè)文明之后的又一重大進步。在后國際金融危機時期,低碳經(jīng)濟、低碳技術(shù)、近零排放日益受到世界各國的關(guān)注,正成為新一輪世界經(jīng)濟的增長點和競爭點。低碳經(jīng)濟已成為各國科技和產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重要突破口。但由于發(fā)展模式等方面的原因,中國是世界上碳排放最多的國家,人均二氧化碳排放量和單位GDP碳排放強度均處于世界前列。日益增多的碳排放已經(jīng)嚴重威脅著國民經(jīng)濟持續(xù)發(fā)展和生態(tài)文明建設。從根本上來說,碳排放問題是能源利用問題。中國能源利用效率和世界先進水平之間依然存在著極大的差距。同時,能源資源的供不應求狀況也越來越嚴重,能源資源的總量約束也越加明顯。在發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)成為世界發(fā)展主流情況下,對中國來說,抓住向低碳經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型的契機,是一次推動能源結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的戰(zhàn)略選擇。因此,深入研究低碳經(jīng)濟條件下的能源安全觀,分析中國能源安全面臨的國際國內(nèi)形勢以及存在的主要問題,需調(diào)整能源戰(zhàn)略,選擇科學的能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,引導中國國民經(jīng)濟朝著可持續(xù)、低碳的方向理性發(fā)展,提出保障中國能源安全發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略對策顯得尤為必要。本文以可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論、能源經(jīng)濟學、產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟學、低碳經(jīng)濟學、戰(zhàn)略管理理論、現(xiàn)代數(shù)學的理論為支撐,以低碳經(jīng)濟背景下中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略和政策為研究對象,綜合運用了比較、實證、計量經(jīng)濟學和模糊評價等方法,對該選題開展了深入研究。對能源安全戰(zhàn)略和政策進行研究,對戰(zhàn)略效果進行評價,對政策內(nèi)容進行分析。對能源安全戰(zhàn)略綜合評價,運用科學的分析方法,對已經(jīng)付諸實施的能源安全戰(zhàn)略所產(chǎn)生的效果、執(zhí)行情況及其帶來的各種影響等內(nèi)容進行客觀的、系統(tǒng)性的考察與評價,并最終構(gòu)建低碳經(jīng)濟背景下中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略框架,其目的在于通過將這些信息直接或間接地反饋給戰(zhàn)略制定者和政策執(zhí)行人員,促使他們適時做出戰(zhàn)略反應,及時調(diào)整不當?shù)膽?zhàn)略,廢除無效的戰(zhàn)略,改善戰(zhàn)略執(zhí)行行為,從而提高制定戰(zhàn)略和實施戰(zhàn)略的質(zhì)量,從根本上解決中國國民經(jīng)濟和社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展所需要的能源數(shù)量、質(zhì)量、價格和品種,這對于促進中國國民經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展和宏偉戰(zhàn)略目標的實現(xiàn),構(gòu)建節(jié)約型社會、和諧社會和環(huán)境友好型社會都具有重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。本文主要內(nèi)容包括：1.中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略評價。在對建國以來中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略、政策進行回顧的基礎上,介紹這些戰(zhàn)略、政策的實施效果。然后,運用模糊綜合評價方法對它們的實施效果進行評價。2.影響中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略實施效果的因素分析。第一,探討中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略存在的問題,然后分析產(chǎn)生這些問題的原因。最后,以中國一次能源產(chǎn)業(yè)有效競爭的形成為例,分析這些問題的具體情況：利用SCP模型研究中國一次能源市場的競爭狀況,分析有效競爭形成的障礙,并提出相關(guān)建議。3.低碳經(jīng)濟背景下中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略的支撐體系建立。首先,分析低碳經(jīng)濟背景下國家能源安全戰(zhàn)略的動力機制及其作用機理；然后,構(gòu)建低碳經(jīng)濟背景下中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略的支撐體系；最后,以形成可持續(xù)能源發(fā)展技術(shù)政策框架為例,分析低碳經(jīng)濟背景下中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略的支撐體系：第一步,分析能源技術(shù)政策對能源安全的保障功能,第二步,運用ARDL模型分析技術(shù)進步與中國整體能源效率、區(qū)域能源效率以及主要發(fā)達國家的能源效率之間的關(guān)系總結(jié)技術(shù)進步與中國能源效率之間的一般關(guān)系,第三步,在分析中國能源技術(shù)發(fā)展水平低下基本原因基礎上建立了低碳經(jīng)濟背景下可持續(xù)能源發(fā)展技術(shù)政策體系。4.從經(jīng)濟新常態(tài)和低碳經(jīng)濟背景出發(fā),建立低碳經(jīng)濟背景下中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略框架。首先,分析中國低碳經(jīng)濟發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。其次,總結(jié)低碳經(jīng)濟背景下發(fā)達國家的能源安全戰(zhàn)略。再次,構(gòu)建低碳經(jīng)濟背景下中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略框架。最后,以對中國新能源發(fā)展中中央和地方利益博弈的分析及建議為例,分析低碳經(jīng)濟背景下中國新能源安全戰(zhàn)略：第一步,分析中央和地方政府在新能源發(fā)展中的博弈情況；第二步,運用博弈模型分析中央和地方在新能源發(fā)展中機理的博弈；第二步,對兩者博弈的影響和形成原因進行分析基礎上提出促使中國新能源發(fā)展的建議。本文的可能創(chuàng)新之處：1.利用SCP模型對一次能源市場的有效競爭進行了分析。結(jié)果表明,中國一次能源市場的結(jié)構(gòu)、行為、績效之間,已旱現(xiàn)出一種互動局勢,但相互間的影響尚不充分。從合理調(diào)整政府管理體制,轉(zhuǎn)變政府職能,建立與能源產(chǎn)業(yè)形成有效競爭相適應的政府管理制度、深化產(chǎn)權(quán)制度改革,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)組織結(jié)構(gòu),通過有效的資本運營改善企業(yè)經(jīng)營狀況、加強市場建設,形成多元化的投資主體、競爭主體和合理的價格調(diào)控管理體系、加快推進資源使用、天然氣行業(yè)管理等的市場化步伐和加強有關(guān)法律法規(guī)的制訂等方面給出了建議。2.從政策支撐體系,法律支撐體系、市場支撐體系、技術(shù)支撐體系、資源供給支撐體系和信息技術(shù)服務體系等方面構(gòu)建了低碳經(jīng)濟背景下中國能源安全戰(zhàn)略支撐體系。通過對1978-2012年間中國能源消費的碳排放的總量、結(jié)構(gòu)與強度進行統(tǒng)計分析和特征判斷,把握中國能源消費碳排放的發(fā)展演變軌跡。為把握影響中國能源消費碳排放的形成規(guī)律,選擇能源效率、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和人口結(jié)構(gòu)為關(guān)鍵變量,并通過運用VAR模型和脈沖響應分析,闡述這些因素對碳排放量的作用或影響,為更深一步理解新時期國家能源安全的歷史任務、節(jié)能減排的具體現(xiàn)實和生態(tài)文明建設的未來方向提供直觀證據(jù)。3.運用完全信息動態(tài)博弈模型分析了中央和地方在新能源政策實施中的利益博弈對新能源政策效果的影響。結(jié)論認為：地方在短期中會選擇“搭便車”而在長期中會根據(jù)中央決策選擇對自己最有利的決策,這使地方與中央的行為和偏好出現(xiàn)差異,削弱了新能源政策效果；影響地方選擇的原因主要是中國財政制度和地方政府考核機制;在現(xiàn)階段可通過明確中央和地方在新能源發(fā)展中職責、實現(xiàn)地方財權(quán)和事權(quán)統(tǒng)一、構(gòu)建更為合理的政績考核指標等方法使地方與中央的行為和偏好實現(xiàn)一致,達到提高新能源政策效果的目的,為促使中國能源結(jié)構(gòu)的低碳化提供了有益的建議。
[Abstract]:Low-carbon economy is another great progress of human society after agricultural civilization and industrial civilization. In the period of post-international financial crisis, low-carbon economy, low-carbon technology and near-zero emissions have attracted more and more attention from all countries in the world and are becoming the growth point and competitive point of the new round of world economy. However, due to the development model and other reasons, China is the most carbon-emitting country in the world. The per capita carbon dioxide emissions and the intensity of carbon emissions per unit GDP are in the forefront of the world. There is still a big gap between China's energy efficiency and the world's advanced level. At the same time, the shortage of energy resources is becoming more and more serious, and the total restriction of energy resources is becoming more and more obvious. The turning point of carbon economy transformation is a strategic choice to promote the transformation of energy structure. Therefore, it is necessary to study the concept of energy security under the condition of low-carbon economy, analyze the international and domestic situation faced by China's energy security and the existing major problems, adjust the energy strategy, select a scientific energy development strategy, and guide China's national economy towards the future. Sustainable, low-carbon direction of rational development, put forward to safeguard China's energy security development strategy is particularly necessary. This paper is based on sustainable development theory, energy economics, industrial economics, low-carbon economics, strategic management theory, modern mathematics theory as the support, in the context of low-carbon economy, China's energy security strategy and policy for The research object, using the methods of comparison, empirical analysis, econometrics and fuzzy evaluation, has carried out in-depth study on the selected topic. The energy security strategy and policy are studied, the strategic effect is evaluated, and the policy content is analyzed. The objective and systematic investigation and evaluation of the effects, implementation and impacts of the energy security strategy will be carried out, and finally a strategic framework for China's energy security in the context of a low-carbon economy will be constructed, with the aim of feeding this information directly or indirectly back to the strategists and policy executives. Promote them to make timely strategic response, timely adjust improper strategies, abolish ineffective strategies, improve strategic implementation behavior, thereby improving the quality of strategy formulation and implementation, and fundamentally solve the quantity, quality, price and variety of energy needed for the sustainable development of China's national economy and society, which is conducive to promoting China's national economy. The rapid development of economy and the realization of grand strategic goals are of great strategic significance in building a conservation-oriented society, a harmonious society and an environment-friendly society. The main contents of this paper include: 1. China's energy security strategy evaluation. Secondly, the paper evaluates their implementation effects by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. 2. The factors influencing the implementation effect of China's energy security strategy are analyzed. Firstly, the existing problems of China's energy security strategy are discussed, and then the causes of these problems are analyzed. Finally, the formation of effective competition in China's primary energy industry is discussed. For example, this paper analyzes the specific situation of these problems: using SCP model to study the competition situation of China's primary energy market, analyzing the obstacles of effective competition, and putting forward relevant suggestions.3. Establishing the support system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. Secondly, it constructs the supporting system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. Finally, it takes the formation of a technical policy framework for sustainable energy development as an example to analyze the supporting system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. The first step is to analyze the safeguard function of energy technology policy on energy security. Secondly, the ARDL model is used to analyze the relationship between technological progress and China's overall energy efficiency, regional energy efficiency and energy efficiency of major developed countries. The general relationship between technological progress and China's energy efficiency is summarized. Thirdly, a low-carbon economy is established on the basis of the analysis of the basic reasons for China's low level of energy technology development. Based on the background of new normal economy and low-carbon economy, this paper establishes the strategic framework of China's energy security under the background of low-carbon economy. Firstly, it analyzes the current situation of China's low-carbon economic development. Secondly, it summarizes the energy security strategies of developed countries under the background of low-carbon economy. Finally, taking the analysis and suggestions of the game between the central and local interests in the development of China's new energy as an example, this paper analyzes China's new energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy: the first step is to analyze the game between the central and local governments in the development of new energy; the second step is to use the game model to analyze the central and local interests of China's new energy development. The second step is to put forward suggestions to promote the development of China's new energy based on the analysis of the impact and causes of the two games. There has been an interactive situation between structure, behavior and performance, but the mutual influence is still insufficient. We should rationally adjust the government management system, transform the government functions, establish a government management system suitable for the formation of effective competition with the energy industry, deepen the reform of property rights system, optimize the industrial organization structure, and improve it through effective capital operation. Suggestions are put forward in the aspects of enterprise operation, strengthening market construction, forming diversified investors, competitors and reasonable price control management system, accelerating the market-oriented pace of resource utilization, natural gas industry management, and strengthening the formulation of relevant laws and regulations. 2. Policy support system, legal support system and market support system are proposed. The support system, technology support system, resource supply support system and information technology service system have been constructed to support China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. In order to grasp the formation law of carbon emissions affecting China's energy consumption, energy efficiency, industrial structure, technological innovation and population structure are selected as the key variables. By using VAR model and impulse response analysis, the effects of these factors on carbon emissions are expounded, so as to further understand the national energy in the new era. The historical task of safety, the concrete reality of energy conservation and emission reduction and the future direction of ecological civilization construction provide intuitive evidence. In the long run, the central government will choose the most favorable decision according to the central decision-making, which makes the behavior and preference of the local and central differences, weakening the effect of new energy policy; the main reasons for affecting the local choice are China's financial system and local government assessment mechanism; at this stage, the central and local governments can be clearly defined in the development of new energy. In order to achieve the goal of improving the effect of the new energy policy, we should unify the local financial power and administrative power, construct a more reasonable performance appraisal index, and so on.
【學位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.2
[Abstract]:Low-carbon economy is another great progress of human society after agricultural civilization and industrial civilization. In the period of post-international financial crisis, low-carbon economy, low-carbon technology and near-zero emissions have attracted more and more attention from all countries in the world and are becoming the growth point and competitive point of the new round of world economy. However, due to the development model and other reasons, China is the most carbon-emitting country in the world. The per capita carbon dioxide emissions and the intensity of carbon emissions per unit GDP are in the forefront of the world. There is still a big gap between China's energy efficiency and the world's advanced level. At the same time, the shortage of energy resources is becoming more and more serious, and the total restriction of energy resources is becoming more and more obvious. The turning point of carbon economy transformation is a strategic choice to promote the transformation of energy structure. Therefore, it is necessary to study the concept of energy security under the condition of low-carbon economy, analyze the international and domestic situation faced by China's energy security and the existing major problems, adjust the energy strategy, select a scientific energy development strategy, and guide China's national economy towards the future. Sustainable, low-carbon direction of rational development, put forward to safeguard China's energy security development strategy is particularly necessary. This paper is based on sustainable development theory, energy economics, industrial economics, low-carbon economics, strategic management theory, modern mathematics theory as the support, in the context of low-carbon economy, China's energy security strategy and policy for The research object, using the methods of comparison, empirical analysis, econometrics and fuzzy evaluation, has carried out in-depth study on the selected topic. The energy security strategy and policy are studied, the strategic effect is evaluated, and the policy content is analyzed. The objective and systematic investigation and evaluation of the effects, implementation and impacts of the energy security strategy will be carried out, and finally a strategic framework for China's energy security in the context of a low-carbon economy will be constructed, with the aim of feeding this information directly or indirectly back to the strategists and policy executives. Promote them to make timely strategic response, timely adjust improper strategies, abolish ineffective strategies, improve strategic implementation behavior, thereby improving the quality of strategy formulation and implementation, and fundamentally solve the quantity, quality, price and variety of energy needed for the sustainable development of China's national economy and society, which is conducive to promoting China's national economy. The rapid development of economy and the realization of grand strategic goals are of great strategic significance in building a conservation-oriented society, a harmonious society and an environment-friendly society. The main contents of this paper include: 1. China's energy security strategy evaluation. Secondly, the paper evaluates their implementation effects by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. 2. The factors influencing the implementation effect of China's energy security strategy are analyzed. Firstly, the existing problems of China's energy security strategy are discussed, and then the causes of these problems are analyzed. Finally, the formation of effective competition in China's primary energy industry is discussed. For example, this paper analyzes the specific situation of these problems: using SCP model to study the competition situation of China's primary energy market, analyzing the obstacles of effective competition, and putting forward relevant suggestions.3. Establishing the support system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. Secondly, it constructs the supporting system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. Finally, it takes the formation of a technical policy framework for sustainable energy development as an example to analyze the supporting system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. The first step is to analyze the safeguard function of energy technology policy on energy security. Secondly, the ARDL model is used to analyze the relationship between technological progress and China's overall energy efficiency, regional energy efficiency and energy efficiency of major developed countries. The general relationship between technological progress and China's energy efficiency is summarized. Thirdly, a low-carbon economy is established on the basis of the analysis of the basic reasons for China's low level of energy technology development. Based on the background of new normal economy and low-carbon economy, this paper establishes the strategic framework of China's energy security under the background of low-carbon economy. Firstly, it analyzes the current situation of China's low-carbon economic development. Secondly, it summarizes the energy security strategies of developed countries under the background of low-carbon economy. Finally, taking the analysis and suggestions of the game between the central and local interests in the development of China's new energy as an example, this paper analyzes China's new energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy: the first step is to analyze the game between the central and local governments in the development of new energy; the second step is to use the game model to analyze the central and local interests of China's new energy development. The second step is to put forward suggestions to promote the development of China's new energy based on the analysis of the impact and causes of the two games. There has been an interactive situation between structure, behavior and performance, but the mutual influence is still insufficient. We should rationally adjust the government management system, transform the government functions, establish a government management system suitable for the formation of effective competition with the energy industry, deepen the reform of property rights system, optimize the industrial organization structure, and improve it through effective capital operation. Suggestions are put forward in the aspects of enterprise operation, strengthening market construction, forming diversified investors, competitors and reasonable price control management system, accelerating the market-oriented pace of resource utilization, natural gas industry management, and strengthening the formulation of relevant laws and regulations. 2. Policy support system, legal support system and market support system are proposed. The support system, technology support system, resource supply support system and information technology service system have been constructed to support China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. In order to grasp the formation law of carbon emissions affecting China's energy consumption, energy efficiency, industrial structure, technological innovation and population structure are selected as the key variables. By using VAR model and impulse response analysis, the effects of these factors on carbon emissions are expounded, so as to further understand the national energy in the new era. The historical task of safety, the concrete reality of energy conservation and emission reduction and the future direction of ecological civilization construction provide intuitive evidence. In the long run, the central government will choose the most favorable decision according to the central decision-making, which makes the behavior and preference of the local and central differences, weakening the effect of new energy policy; the main reasons for affecting the local choice are China's financial system and local government assessment mechanism; at this stage, the central and local governments can be clearly defined in the development of new energy. In order to achieve the goal of improving the effect of the new energy policy, we should unify the local financial power and administrative power, construct a more reasonable performance appraisal index, and so on.
【學位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.2
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6 北京大學國際關(guān)系學院教授 g讕，
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