基于演化范式的金融危機形成機理研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-27 15:10
【摘要】：2008年爆發(fā)的美國金融危機是自20世紀30年代"大蕭條"以來最嚴重的經濟危機,它使全世界的經濟發(fā)生了嚴重的衰退。2009年,美國金融危機調查委員會公布了《金融危機調查報告》,報告認為,導致系統性金融危機的首要原因是社會普遍缺失對人性弱點的問責機制。2010年,C.M.萊因哈特和K.S.羅格夫撰寫了《這次不一樣:八百年金融危機史》一書,將歷史上歷次金融危機的原因歸結到人的本性,書中指出人的貪婪與破壞性的原動力總會在一個時期后突破理性的控制,能量在被破壞性地釋放之后,才會回歸于相對的寧靜與繁榮。本文正是在上述的背景下開始了對金融危機理論的探討,試圖回答這樣的問題:導致金融危機的人性的弱點是什么?它們的內在機制又是什么?該如何進行干預?本文在研究導致金融危機的人性的弱點及其內在機制的過程中發(fā)現,演化范式的思想和方法比較適合研究上述的問題。演化范式主要借鑒達爾文的生物進化思想,并且融合了神經經濟學、認知經濟學和行為經濟學的研究成果,以更接近客觀實際的、動態(tài)的分析方式來分析和理解經濟活動和金融活動,找到經濟活動和金融活動的內在機制。演化分析屬于模糊分析范疇,它無法準確預測經濟系統的運行,也并不試圖為經濟系統運行軌跡提供定量描述和預測,而是依據生物進化的思想建立一種科學觀察和理解經濟系統運行邏輯的全新的分析框架。本文嘗試基于演化范式來分析金融危機形成的機理,同時基于行為金融學的研究成果,更接近實際地理解金融危機形成的內在機制,并從中找到干預金融危機的辦法。用演化范式來分析金融危機是一種很有意義的嘗試。第一章金融危機形成的理論及研究文獻述評。首先,以代表金融危機發(fā)展進程的四種類型——外債危機、銀行危機、貨幣危機和系統性金融危機——為線索,梳理了代表性金融危機形成的理論,并對其不足進行評論。其次,以金融系統層級的四種角度——行為主體、金融工具、金融制度和金融環(huán)境——為線索,梳理了金融危機形成的研究文獻,并對其不足進行了評論。第二章演化范式對金融危機形成理論的借鑒。首先介紹演化范式的由來和發(fā)展,其次介紹了演化范式的基本假設和主要方法,然后介紹了演化范式的分析框架,最后分析了演化范式在行為主體假設和分析方式上對金融危機形成理論的補充作用。第三章金融危機形成機理:演化范式的理論分析。首先,文章分析的是金融危機形成的遺傳機制,結合經濟人假設得出經濟和金融活動的生物性基因是行為主體的決策模式,結合丹尼爾·卡納曼的雙系統決策模型(人類的大腦中擁有一個高效的特定的自動決策系統和一個相對低效的普適的受控決策系統共同對信息進行加工和處理)得出行為主體的現實決策模式是雙系統決策模式,基于雙系統決策模型進一步推出金融危機形成的生物性基因是非理性決策模式,結合納爾遜和溫特的思想得出金融危機形成的社會性基因是非理性決策慣例。然后,分析了金融危機形成的變異機制,結合納爾遜和溫特的思想得出金融危機形成的變異機制就是非理性決策慣例的轉型。最后,分析了適者生存的擇優(yōu)進化機制,創(chuàng)建了金融危機形成的演化模型,該模型既反映了金融危機形成的誘致性因素——非理性決策慣例,又反映了金融危機形成的各種影響因素之間相互轉換和共同演化的動態(tài)循環(huán)機制,并按照此模型演繹了金融泡沫形成和金融泡沫崩潰的演化機制和演化過程。第四章金融危機形成機理:演化范式的案例分析。本章分別列舉了由遺傳基因誘致的金融危機不斷復制的案例、由基因變異因素誘致的金融危機類型不斷變換的案例、由擇優(yōu)進化因素誘致的金融危機救助、糾偏、防范的案例,進一步驗證金融危機的演化機理。雖然人類會在每次危機后都會制定新的危機防范措施,但由于存在難以克服的非理性的遺傳基因及基因變異,新的金融危機仍會爆發(fā),人們也會不斷地積累經驗,克服弱點,在防范和應對金融危機中不斷發(fā)展進化。第五章研究結論與對策建議。首先,對金融危機形成的演化分析進行歸納和總結,得出非理性決策模式是誘致金融危機形成的重要因素,非理性決策模式的生物性特征決定了金融危機是不可避免的,非理性決策慣例是非理性決策模式的社會性表現,非理性決策慣例來自于金融系統的過度刺激,不同金融系統的刺激方式衍生出不同的金融危機類型,完善穩(wěn)定的經濟和金融制度是防范金融危機形成的有效機制等結論。然后,提出了增加金融活動中非理性決策和行為的預警信號,市場與政府二元調節(jié)機制優(yōu)化組合的制度化解決方案,完善制衡市場和政府非理性決策和行為的金融監(jiān)管制度等對策建議。本文的創(chuàng)新點是:第一,建立了金融危機形成的演化分析模型,該模型較好地揭示了金融危機形成的內在機制,反映了金融危機形成的各種影響因素之間相互轉換和共同演化的動態(tài)循環(huán)機制,為更接近實際地理解金融危機形成的動態(tài)機制提供了一種可能;同時,以雙系統決策模式作為邏輯起點的演化分析模型可以將以"理性人"為邏輯起點的新古典經濟學和以"有限理性"或"非理性"為邏輯起點的非主流經濟學融為一體。第二,基于雙系統決策模型推出了金融危機形成的生物性遺傳機制,即非理性決策模式,為金融危機形成的非理性誘致因素找到了更為科學的內在機制;同時,基于非理性決策模式的生物性特點得出金融危機是不可避免的結論,幫助人們正確認識和對待金融危機;第三,提出了增加金融活動中非理性決策和行為的預警信號,市場與政府二元調節(jié)機制優(yōu)化組合的制度化解決方案,完善制衡市場和政府非理性決策和行為的金融監(jiān)管制度等對策建議。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis in 2008 in the United States is the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s. It caused a serious recession in the world economy. In 2009, the Financial Crisis Survey Commission published the Financial Crisis Survey Report, which argued that the primary cause of the systemic financial crisis was the widespread lack of society. In 2010, C.M. Reinhart and K. It is against this background that this paper begins to explore the theory of financial crisis, trying to answer such questions: what are the human weaknesses that lead to the financial crisis, what are their internal mechanisms, and how to intervene? This paper studies the financial crisis. In the process of the weakness of the human nature of machine and its internal mechanism, it is found that the idea and method of evolutionary paradigm are more suitable for studying the above-mentioned problems. Evolutionary analysis belongs to the category of fuzzy analysis. It can not accurately predict the operation of the economic system, nor does it attempt to provide quantitative description and prediction for the trajectory of the economic system. This paper attempts to analyze the mechanism of financial crisis formation based on evolutionary paradigm, and to understand the internal mechanism of financial crisis formation based on behavioral finance research results, and to find ways to intervene in financial crisis. The first chapter is a review of the theories and research literature on the formation of financial crises. Firstly, it combs out the theories on the formation of representative financial crises based on the clues of four types representing the development process of financial crises: external debt crisis, banking crisis, monetary crisis and systemic financial crisis. Secondly, based on the four levels of the financial system - actors, financial instruments, financial institutions and financial environment - this paper combs the research literature on the formation of financial crisis, and comments on its shortcomings. Chapter II Evolutionary Paradigm is a reference to the theory of financial crisis formation. The origin and development of the evolutionary paradigm are introduced. The basic assumptions and main methods of the evolutionary paradigm are introduced. Then the analytical framework of the evolutionary paradigm is introduced. Finally, the complementary effect of the evolutionary paradigm on the theory of financial crisis formation is analyzed. Chapter 2 analyzes the genetic mechanism of financial crisis, and concludes that the biological gene of economic and financial activities is the decision-making model of the agent, combined with Daniel Kanaman's two-system decision-making model (the human brain has an efficient and specific automatic decision-making system and a relatively inefficient and universal acceptance) It is concluded that the real decision-making mode of the actors is a two-system decision-making mode. Based on the two-system decision-making model, the biological gene of the financial crisis is further deduced as an irrational decision-making mode. Then, the paper analyzes the variation mechanism of the financial crisis and concludes that the variation mechanism of the financial crisis is the transformation of the irrational decision-making conventions by combining Nelson and Winter's ideas. Finally, the paper analyzes the evolution mechanism of the survival of the fittest and establishes the evolution model of the financial crisis, which reflects gold. The non-rational decision-making convention, which is the inducing factor of the financial crisis, also reflects the dynamic cycle mechanism of mutual transformation and co-evolution among the various influencing factors of the financial crisis, and deduces the evolution mechanism and process of the formation and collapse of the financial bubble according to this model. This chapter enumerates the cases of repeated financial crises caused by genetic mutations, the cases of changing types of financial crises caused by genetic mutations, and the cases of financial crises relief, correction and prevention induced by preferential evolutionary factors. Human beings will formulate new crisis prevention measures after each crisis, but because of the existence of unconquerable irrational genetic and genetic mutations, new financial crises will still break out, people will continue to accumulate experience, overcome weaknesses, and constantly evolve in the prevention and response to financial crises. Chapter 5 Research conclusions and Countermeasures First of all, the paper summarizes the evolution of the financial crisis and concludes that irrational decision-making mode is an important factor to induce the formation of the financial crisis. The biological characteristics of irrational decision-making mode determine that the financial crisis is inevitable. Conventions come from the over-stimulation of the financial system, different types of financial crisis are derived from the stimulation of different financial systems, and the conclusion is that perfecting the stable economic and financial system is an effective mechanism to prevent the formation of financial crisis. The innovation of this paper is as follows: Firstly, an evolutionary analysis model of financial crisis formation is established, which reveals the internal mechanism of financial crisis formation and reflects the financial crisis. The dynamic cyclic mechanism of mutual transformation and co-evolution among the various influencing factors provides a possibility for a closer understanding of the dynamic mechanism of the formation of the financial crisis. At the same time, the evolutionary analysis model based on the Bi-system decision-making model can be used to analyze the neo-classical economics and the neo-classical economics based on the logical starting point of "rational man". Non-mainstream economics with "bounded rationality" or "irrationality" as its logical starting point is integrated. Secondly, based on the Bi-system decision-making model, the biological genetic mechanism of financial crisis formation, i.e. the irrational decision-making model, has found a more scientific internal mechanism for the irrational inducing factors of financial crisis formation. The biological characteristics of the model come to the conclusion that financial crisis is inevitable, and help people correctly understand and deal with the financial crisis; thirdly, put forward to increase the warning signal of irrational decision-making and behavior in financial activities, market and government dual regulation mechanism optimization combination of institutionalized solutions, improve the checks and balances of the market and government irrational decision-making. Financial supervision system of policy and behavior.
【學位授予單位】：東北師范大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F831.59
，
本文編號：2207653
[Abstract]:The financial crisis in 2008 in the United States is the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s. It caused a serious recession in the world economy. In 2009, the Financial Crisis Survey Commission published the Financial Crisis Survey Report, which argued that the primary cause of the systemic financial crisis was the widespread lack of society. In 2010, C.M. Reinhart and K. It is against this background that this paper begins to explore the theory of financial crisis, trying to answer such questions: what are the human weaknesses that lead to the financial crisis, what are their internal mechanisms, and how to intervene? This paper studies the financial crisis. In the process of the weakness of the human nature of machine and its internal mechanism, it is found that the idea and method of evolutionary paradigm are more suitable for studying the above-mentioned problems. Evolutionary analysis belongs to the category of fuzzy analysis. It can not accurately predict the operation of the economic system, nor does it attempt to provide quantitative description and prediction for the trajectory of the economic system. This paper attempts to analyze the mechanism of financial crisis formation based on evolutionary paradigm, and to understand the internal mechanism of financial crisis formation based on behavioral finance research results, and to find ways to intervene in financial crisis. The first chapter is a review of the theories and research literature on the formation of financial crises. Firstly, it combs out the theories on the formation of representative financial crises based on the clues of four types representing the development process of financial crises: external debt crisis, banking crisis, monetary crisis and systemic financial crisis. Secondly, based on the four levels of the financial system - actors, financial instruments, financial institutions and financial environment - this paper combs the research literature on the formation of financial crisis, and comments on its shortcomings. Chapter II Evolutionary Paradigm is a reference to the theory of financial crisis formation. The origin and development of the evolutionary paradigm are introduced. The basic assumptions and main methods of the evolutionary paradigm are introduced. Then the analytical framework of the evolutionary paradigm is introduced. Finally, the complementary effect of the evolutionary paradigm on the theory of financial crisis formation is analyzed. Chapter 2 analyzes the genetic mechanism of financial crisis, and concludes that the biological gene of economic and financial activities is the decision-making model of the agent, combined with Daniel Kanaman's two-system decision-making model (the human brain has an efficient and specific automatic decision-making system and a relatively inefficient and universal acceptance) It is concluded that the real decision-making mode of the actors is a two-system decision-making mode. Based on the two-system decision-making model, the biological gene of the financial crisis is further deduced as an irrational decision-making mode. Then, the paper analyzes the variation mechanism of the financial crisis and concludes that the variation mechanism of the financial crisis is the transformation of the irrational decision-making conventions by combining Nelson and Winter's ideas. Finally, the paper analyzes the evolution mechanism of the survival of the fittest and establishes the evolution model of the financial crisis, which reflects gold. The non-rational decision-making convention, which is the inducing factor of the financial crisis, also reflects the dynamic cycle mechanism of mutual transformation and co-evolution among the various influencing factors of the financial crisis, and deduces the evolution mechanism and process of the formation and collapse of the financial bubble according to this model. This chapter enumerates the cases of repeated financial crises caused by genetic mutations, the cases of changing types of financial crises caused by genetic mutations, and the cases of financial crises relief, correction and prevention induced by preferential evolutionary factors. Human beings will formulate new crisis prevention measures after each crisis, but because of the existence of unconquerable irrational genetic and genetic mutations, new financial crises will still break out, people will continue to accumulate experience, overcome weaknesses, and constantly evolve in the prevention and response to financial crises. Chapter 5 Research conclusions and Countermeasures First of all, the paper summarizes the evolution of the financial crisis and concludes that irrational decision-making mode is an important factor to induce the formation of the financial crisis. The biological characteristics of irrational decision-making mode determine that the financial crisis is inevitable. Conventions come from the over-stimulation of the financial system, different types of financial crisis are derived from the stimulation of different financial systems, and the conclusion is that perfecting the stable economic and financial system is an effective mechanism to prevent the formation of financial crisis. The innovation of this paper is as follows: Firstly, an evolutionary analysis model of financial crisis formation is established, which reveals the internal mechanism of financial crisis formation and reflects the financial crisis. The dynamic cyclic mechanism of mutual transformation and co-evolution among the various influencing factors provides a possibility for a closer understanding of the dynamic mechanism of the formation of the financial crisis. At the same time, the evolutionary analysis model based on the Bi-system decision-making model can be used to analyze the neo-classical economics and the neo-classical economics based on the logical starting point of "rational man". Non-mainstream economics with "bounded rationality" or "irrationality" as its logical starting point is integrated. Secondly, based on the Bi-system decision-making model, the biological genetic mechanism of financial crisis formation, i.e. the irrational decision-making model, has found a more scientific internal mechanism for the irrational inducing factors of financial crisis formation. The biological characteristics of the model come to the conclusion that financial crisis is inevitable, and help people correctly understand and deal with the financial crisis; thirdly, put forward to increase the warning signal of irrational decision-making and behavior in financial activities, market and government dual regulation mechanism optimization combination of institutionalized solutions, improve the checks and balances of the market and government irrational decision-making. Financial supervision system of policy and behavior.
【學位授予單位】：東北師范大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F831.59
，
本文編號：2207653
本文鏈接：http://www.lk138.cn/shoufeilunwen/jjglbs/2207653.html
教材專著
