發(fā)布時間：2018-07-10 05:06

  本文選題：技術趕超 + 全要素生產率　； 參考：《云南大學》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：技術進步對于經(jīng)濟增長起著重要的影響作用。在經(jīng)典的新古典、新增長、熊比特及新熊比特經(jīng)濟學理論中都強調了技術進步在經(jīng)濟增長的中的重要作用。新古典認為技術進步速度決定了穩(wěn)態(tài)時經(jīng)濟增長的速度；新增長理論認為技術進步是經(jīng)濟長期增長的主要原因,技術進步能克服其它要素邊際報酬遞減,實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長；熊比特及新熊比特認為創(chuàng)新作用于技術進步從而影響經(jīng)濟增長。從世界經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展事實來看,技術水平位于世界技術前沿及其附近的國家都有著較為穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟增長速度和高的收入水平。欠發(fā)達國家與發(fā)達國家在技術水平上存在著較大的差距,欠發(fā)達國家要實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟上對發(fā)達國家的趕超就必然要縮小與發(fā)達國家在技術上的差距。欠發(fā)達國家技術趕超是經(jīng)濟趕超的必要條件。本文重點研究的問題是欠發(fā)達國家技術趕超的問題。技術趕超的實現(xiàn)并不是一蹴而就的,學者們在研究技術進步問題時將技術趕超的過程分為幾個階段。這些階段性理論認為：模仿與創(chuàng)新是欠發(fā)達國家技術趕超的路徑會經(jīng)歷的兩個主要階段。在技術趕超的初始階段,與世界技術前沿的差距較大,此時模仿是推動技術進步的主要方式；在技術趕超的中后期階段,與世界技術前沿的差距較小,此進創(chuàng)新對技術進步的作用大于模仿。第1章緒論的部分我們闡述了本文所做研究的現(xiàn)實方面與理論方面意義。從現(xiàn)實意義上講,技術趕超過程中模仿向創(chuàng)新轉型是欠發(fā)達國家技術趕超的內在要求,因此,我們的研究能為我國現(xiàn)階段的國家創(chuàng)新戰(zhàn)略提供支持。從理論意義上講,研究技術趕超過程中模仿向創(chuàng)新轉型的問題可以豐富和充實技術趕超理論,為欠發(fā)達國家的技術趕超提供理論上的支持和方法上的建議。在緒論的最后一節(jié)我們對本文的研究方法和研究思路做出描述,論證了本項研究的可行性并提出了本項研究可能實現(xiàn)的創(chuàng)新之處以及具體的技術研究路線。第2章的內容主要是回顧與梳理了欠發(fā)達國家技術趕超的相關理論和文獻成果。首先分析關于技術趕超可行性的理論,其次分析技術趕超的階段性理論,最后分析了技術趕超過程中模仿主導向創(chuàng)新主導轉型的相關理論。通過文獻回顧和梳理筆者認為技術模仿與創(chuàng)新在趕超的不同階段對技術進步的推動作用并不相同。技術趕超的路徑并不是連續(xù)的,存在著階段性特點。階段間的過渡無法簡單完成,特別是由模仿向創(chuàng)新的過渡存在較多困難。很多欠發(fā)達國家沒有完成對世界技術前沿的趕超,最重要的原因就是沒有完成由模仿向創(chuàng)新的技術轉型。第3章通過拓展羅默的三部門增長模型對欠發(fā)達國家的技術趕超進行了理論分析。分析結果表明：欠發(fā)達國家在技術趕超的路徑上存在模仿均衡點與創(chuàng)新均衡點。發(fā)達國家的技術水平會收斂于創(chuàng)新均衡點,在該均衡點處對應著較高的中間品價值與較高的技術水平；欠發(fā)達國家的技術水平會收斂于模仿均衡點,在該點處對應著較低的中間品價值與較低的技術水平。欠發(fā)達國家在技術趕超的路徑上,只有成功越過模仿均衡點才能達到創(chuàng)新均衡點,從而實現(xiàn)趕超。欠發(fā)達國家只有從模仿均衡點躍升到創(chuàng)新均衡點才能實現(xiàn)技術趕超,這種躍升的過程就是由模仿向創(chuàng)新轉型的過程。在技術趕超的不同階段里,實現(xiàn)技術進步所需要的要素稟賦不相同。相同要素在技術趕超的不同階段里對技術進步的影響作用也存在著差異；要素自身的豐富程度和發(fā)展水平如果發(fā)生變化,它對技術進步的作用也會相應發(fā)生變化。綜合上述原因,我們認為技術趕超中模仿向創(chuàng)新轉型這一過程的實現(xiàn)是困難的。本章還建立了一個廠商的微觀決策模型。運用該模型來分析企業(yè)對于模仿和創(chuàng)新的選擇機制,以此來論證由模仿向創(chuàng)新轉型的微觀理論機制。第4章采用跨國數(shù)據(jù)檢驗了國家間技術的收斂情況。檢驗時樣本國家被分為欠發(fā)達國家與OECD國家兩組。第一步對技術水平的絕對收斂進行檢驗。結果表明,OECD國家的技術水平絕對收斂,欠發(fā)達國家與總體樣本國家均不絕對收斂。我們再對國家間技術水平進行條件收斂檢驗,按照條件收斂的檢驗方法,將那些對技術進步產生影響的要素引入條件收斂模型進行檢驗,檢驗結果顯示：總體樣本國家存在條件收斂。能夠影響技術收斂的要素,必然會對技術趕超產生影響,也必然會對技術趕超過程中由模仿向創(chuàng)新的轉型產生影響。所以,我們在這一章對這些要素展開了較為詳細的分析,以便了解這些要素對技術進步的影響,以及在模仿主導和創(chuàng)新主導這兩種類型的國家中這種影響表現(xiàn)出怎樣的差異。第5章通過建立動態(tài)面板模型,實證分析了在第4章中影響收斂的因素對于技術趕超國家和技術發(fā)達國家的技術進步所產生的作用。實證分析過程中我們對樣本國家進行分組估計研究,分析比較了這些影響因素在OECD國家和欠發(fā)達國家對技術進步所發(fā)揮的作用有何差異。這些差異說明了以模仿為主導的欠發(fā)達國家和以創(chuàng)新為主導的OECD國家在推動技術進步時對要素的需求存在差異。為了進一步分析這種差異性,本章通過面板門檻回歸對要素影響技術水平的結構性特點進行了研究。研究結果顯示：這些轉型要素對技術進步產生影響時存在著相應的門檻效應。如果它們自身的發(fā)展程度和豐富程度產生變化,那么,它們對技術水平的影響將會出現(xiàn)顯著的差異性。第6章主要對欠發(fā)達國家模仿向創(chuàng)新轉型是否成功對欠發(fā)達國家技術趕超產生的影響。通過對比實現(xiàn)技術趕超的國家和沒有實現(xiàn)技術趕超的國家。我們發(fā)現(xiàn),成功實現(xiàn)技術趕超的國家也成功實現(xiàn)了由模仿向創(chuàng)新的轉型,并且以創(chuàng)新為技術進步的主要推動形式。長期中沒有完成技術進步的方式轉型的國家,在技術趕超上是失敗的。在對技術趕超成功的國家與技術趕超失敗的國家進行對比研究之后,我們接著對技術轉型失敗與中等收入陷阱問題進行了論述。第7章對我們的研究成果進行了總結,同時也反思了我們的研究存在的不足,反思之后對下一步的研究做出了展望。本文的研究是從理論與實證兩方面結合進行的,在理論分析時我們提出兩個命題,然后通過實證研究得到了證實。
[Abstract]:Technological progress plays an important role in economic growth. In classic neoclassical, new growth, bear bit and new bear bit economics, the important role of technological progress in economic growth is emphasized. New classical thought that the speed of technological progress determines the speed of economic growth in the steady state; the new growth theory believes that technology advances. Step is the main reason for long-term economic growth. Technological progress can overcome the diminishing marginal returns of other elements and achieve economic growth. Bear bits and new bear bits believe that innovation plays a role in technological progress and thus affects economic growth. From the fact of the development of the world economy, the level of technology is located in the frontier of the world technology and in the neighboring countries. The relatively stable economic growth rate and the high income level. There is a big gap between the developed countries and the underdeveloped countries. In order to realize the overtake of the developed countries, the underdeveloped countries will inevitably narrow the technical gap with the developed countries. The technology catching up of the less developed countries is the necessary condition for the economic surpassing. This paper focuses on the problem of technological surpassing in less developed countries. The realization of technology catching up is not achieved overnight. Scholars divide the process of technology catching up into several stages in the study of technological progress. These stage theory holds that imitation and innovation are the two of the paths that the underdeveloped countries will go through. The main stage. In the initial stage of technological surpassing, the gap between the technology advancement and the world technology frontier is larger. At this time, imitation is the main way to promote the technological progress. In the middle and late stages of the technology catching up, the gap between the technology advancement and the world technology frontier is smaller. The role of this innovation is greater than the imitation. The part of the first chapter of the introduction described this article. In practical sense, in a realistic sense, the transformation of imitation to innovation in the process of technological catching up is the inherent requirement of the technology catching up in the less developed countries. Therefore, our research can provide support for the national innovation strategy at the present stage of our country. The problem of transformation can enrich and enrich the theory of technological catch up and provide theoretical support and method suggestions for the technology catching up in less developed countries. In the last section of the introduction, we describe the research methods and research ideas of this article, demonstrate the feasibility of this study and put forward the possible innovation of this study. The second chapter mainly reviews and combs the related theories and literature achievements of the technology catching up in the less developed countries. Firstly, it analyzes the theory about the feasibility of technology catching up, secondly analyzes the stage theory of technology catching up, and finally analyzes the leading transformation of imitation leading to innovation in the process of technological catching up. By reviewing and combing the literature, I think that technology imitating and innovation are not the same in the different stages of technological progress. The path of technology catching up is not continuous, and there is a stage characteristic. The transition between stages can not be completed simply, especially the transition from imitation to innovation is more difficult. The most important reason is that many underdeveloped countries have not completed the technological transformation from imitation to innovation. The third chapter analyses the technology surpassing of the less developed countries by expanding Romer's three sector growth model. The results show that the less developed countries are in the way of technological surpassing. There are imitative equilibrium points and innovation equilibrium points. The technological level of developed countries converges to the innovation equilibrium point, which corresponds to higher intermediate value and higher technical level at the equilibrium point; the technical level of the less developed countries converges to the imitative equilibrium point, and the lower intermediate value and lower technology should be at the point. Level. In the path of technology catching up, the less developed countries can reach the innovation equilibrium only by successfully crossing the equilibrium point of imitation, so that the less developed countries can catch up with the technology only from the imitative equilibrium point to the innovation equilibrium point, which is the process of transformation from imitation to innovation. In different stages, the factor endowments needed to achieve technological progress are different. The effects of the same elements on the technological progress are also different in the different stages of the technology catching up. If the richness and development level of the elements themselves change, it will change accordingly. We believe that it is difficult to realize the process of transformation from imitation to innovation. This chapter also establishes a manufacturer's micro decision model. The model is used to analyze the mechanism of enterprise's choice of imitation and innovation, in order to demonstrate the micro theoretical mechanism from imitation to innovation. The fourth chapter uses transnational data to test the country. The sample countries are divided into two groups in the less developed countries and the OECD countries. The first step is to test the absolute convergence of the technical level. The results show that the technical level of the OECD countries is absolutely convergent, and the less developed countries and the overall sample countries are not absolutely convergent. According to the test method of conditional convergence, the factors that affect the technological progress are introduced into the conditional convergence model, and the test results show that the overall sample country has a conditional convergence. The factors that can affect the technological convergence will inevitably have an impact on the technological catch up, and are bound to be imitated in the process of catching up with the technology. So we have a more detailed analysis of these elements in this chapter so as to understand the impact of these elements on technological progress, and how the difference in the impact of the two types of countries that are dominant and innovative. The fifth chapter is based on the establishment of a dynamic panel model. In the fourth chapter, we analyze the effect of the factors that affect the convergence of the technology in the technology surpassing countries and the technology progress of the developed countries. In the process of empirical analysis, we study the sample countries in group estimation, and compare the differences between these factors and the role of the OECD countries and the less developed countries on the technical progress. In order to further analyze this difference, this chapter studies the structural characteristics of the factors affecting the technical level by the panel threshold regression in order to further analyze this difference. The transformation factors have a corresponding threshold effect on the technological progress. If their own degree of development and enrichment changes, then they will have significant differences in the impact on the technical level. The sixth chapter is mainly about the success of the imitative transformation of the underdeveloped countries to the underdeveloped countries. We find that countries with successful technology catching up have also succeeded in realizing the transformation from imitation to innovation and the main driving force of technological progress. After a comparative study of the countries that have succeeded in catching up with the successful countries and countries that fail to catch up with technology, we then discuss the failure of technology transformation and the middle income trap. The seventh chapter summarizes the results of our research, and also rethinks the shortcomings of our research, and after rethinking. The research of the next step is prospected. The research of this paper is carried out from two aspects of theory and demonstration. In theoretical analysis, we put forward two propositions and then confirmed through empirical research.
【學位授予單位】：云南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F113.2
，

本文編號：2112165