動態(tài)不確定路徑優(yōu)化模型與算法
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-13 10:36
【摘要】：路徑優(yōu)化是交通運輸領(lǐng)域中的基本問題。出行者在預(yù)先設(shè)定的優(yōu)化路徑上通行,不僅能節(jié)省出行費用,而且對提高整個路網(wǎng)的通行效率也起到積極作用。然而在實際的交通環(huán)境中,由于各種因素的影響,路網(wǎng)狀態(tài)通常會呈現(xiàn)出高度的動態(tài)性和不確定性。因此,如何充分考慮并合理處理復(fù)雜路網(wǎng)的動態(tài)性和不確定性,以得到更加接近實際的路網(wǎng)信息,為出行者提供有效的路徑向?qū)且粋�值得深入探討的課題。本論文以路徑優(yōu)化為主線,采用基于場景并與時間相關(guān)的路段通行時間及通行能力表示交通路網(wǎng)的不確定性和動態(tài)性,研究了動態(tài)不確定最短路的生成策略和協(xié)同路徑優(yōu)化方法。進(jìn)一步將提出的模型和方法應(yīng)用于突發(fā)事件發(fā)生下車輛或者人員的疏散路徑優(yōu)化。具體來講,本文的研究工作主要包括以下五個方面:(1)動態(tài)模糊交通路網(wǎng)中最優(yōu)路徑的評價準(zhǔn)則。在缺少路段通行時間歷史數(shù)據(jù)甚至沒有數(shù)據(jù)的情況下,通過專家估計的方法將擁擠時段的不確定路段通行時間處理為動態(tài)模糊變量�；诳尚判岳碚�,分別針對單一時間區(qū)間和多個時間區(qū)間(即一個時間區(qū)段)提出三種路徑評價準(zhǔn)則:確定性支配準(zhǔn)則、一階模糊支配準(zhǔn)則和模糊期望支配準(zhǔn)則。最后,通過算例具體說明三種支配準(zhǔn)則下比較路徑的方法。(2)動態(tài)模糊交通路網(wǎng)中期望時間最短路徑的求解方法�；谀：谕錅�(zhǔn)則,以尋找包含多個出發(fā)時刻的期望時間最短路徑為目標(biāo),建立了多目標(biāo)0-1數(shù)學(xué)規(guī)劃模型。不同于動態(tài)隨機(jī)路網(wǎng)中路徑生成遵循的相加相乘運算法則,在動態(tài)模糊路網(wǎng)中,由于路段通行時間的模糊性,路徑的生成遵循取大取小運算法則。鑒于此,提出了該路網(wǎng)環(huán)境下期望時間最短路徑的具體生成方法,并設(shè)計了禁忌搜索算法對所建模型進(jìn)行求解。與回溯法相比,禁忌搜索算法能夠高效地求得較高精度的近似最優(yōu)解。(3)隨機(jī)約束最短路問題及拉格朗日松弛算法。為表示交通路網(wǎng)的隨機(jī)性,將路段通行時間處理為基于場景的離散隨機(jī)變量,建立了以期望時間最短為目標(biāo)的隨機(jī)約束最短路模型。由于該模型是NP難問題,采用拉格朗日松弛方法將模型的復(fù)雜約束松弛至目標(biāo)函數(shù)中,從而使得松弛模型易于求解。設(shè)計了集次梯度優(yōu)化算法、標(biāo)號修正算法及K最短路算法于一體的啟發(fā)式算法來最小化目標(biāo)值上界和下界間的相對差值以得到模型的近似最優(yōu)解�？紤]到路段通行時間的聯(lián)合概率質(zhì)量函數(shù)隨時間而動態(tài)變化的特點,將該模型擴(kuò)展為動態(tài)隨機(jī)約束最短路模型,并采用改進(jìn)的啟發(fā)式算法求解。最后,通過不同規(guī)模交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)上的算例對算法的性質(zhì)、上下界間的相對差值及計算效率進(jìn)行了分析。試驗結(jié)果表明,所提出的算法能夠高效地求解大規(guī)模算例的近似最優(yōu)解。(4)隨機(jī)環(huán)境下基于災(zāi)難應(yīng)急響應(yīng)的疏散路徑規(guī)劃模型。當(dāng)?shù)卣�、洪水及颶風(fēng)等突發(fā)事件發(fā)生時,通常需要盡快將危險區(qū)域的人員疏散至安全區(qū)域。為體現(xiàn)不同災(zāi)難級別對路網(wǎng)造成的影響,本文將路段通行時間和通行能力處理為離散隨機(jī)變量。同時,考慮到?jīng)Q策者對風(fēng)險的偏好程度,引入極小-極大可靠性方法、百分位可靠性方法以及期望負(fù)效用方法分別來刻畫目標(biāo)函數(shù),建立了不同評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)下的隨機(jī)疏散路徑規(guī)劃模型。最后,設(shè)計了拉格朗日松弛方法和K最短路技術(shù)相結(jié)合的啟發(fā)式算法對期望負(fù)效用模型進(jìn)行求解。數(shù)值算例驗證了算法求解大規(guī)模問題的有效性。(5)動態(tài)隨機(jī)環(huán)境下兩階段應(yīng)急疏散路徑規(guī)劃模型。根據(jù)突發(fā)事件發(fā)生時能否獲取路段實時通行信息,將路網(wǎng)劃分為先驗優(yōu)化階段和自適應(yīng)選擇階段。在先驗優(yōu)化階段,假設(shè)突發(fā)事件即將發(fā)生或剛剛發(fā)生時不可獲取路段通行信息,受災(zāi)人員按照預(yù)先給定的方案進(jìn)行疏散。在自適應(yīng)選擇階段,假設(shè)突發(fā)事件發(fā)生一段時間后可及時獲取路網(wǎng)實時信息,采用自適應(yīng)路徑選擇方式在不同場景下選擇不同疏散方案�；谧钚≠M用流模型,建立了以極小化期望總疏散時間為目標(biāo)的兩階段隨機(jī)路徑優(yōu)化模型。最后,將該模型轉(zhuǎn)化為等價單階段優(yōu)化模型,并結(jié)合最小費用路算法及次梯度優(yōu)化算法,設(shè)計了基于拉格朗日松弛方法的啟發(fā)式算法對該模型進(jìn)行求解。
[Abstract]:Path optimization is a basic problem in the field of transportation. Travelers can not only save travel costs but also play a positive role in improving the efficiency of the whole road network by using the pre-determined optimal path. However, in the actual traffic environment, the state of the road network usually presents a high degree of mobility due to various factors. Therefore, how to fully consider and reasonably deal with the dynamic and uncertainties of complex road network to get closer to the actual road network information and provide effective route guide for travelers is a topic worthy of further discussion. Section travel time and capacity represent the uncertainties and dynamics of traffic network. The generation strategy of dynamic uncertain shortest path and the method of cooperative path optimization are studied. Furthermore, the proposed model and method are applied to the evacuation path optimization of vehicles or people in emergencies. It includes the following five aspects: (1) the evaluation criterion of the optimal path in the dynamic fuzzy traffic network. In the absence of historical data or even no data, the uncertain passage time in the congestion period is treated as dynamic fuzzy variables by expert estimation method. In this paper, three evaluation criteria are proposed for intervals and multiple time intervals (i.e. one time interval). They are deterministic domination criterion, first-order fuzzy domination criterion and fuzzy expectation domination criterion. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the method of comparing the paths under the three domination criteria. (2) The method of solving the expected shortest path in the dynamic fuzzy traffic network. Based on the fuzzy expectation domination criterion, a multi-objective 0-1 mathematical programming model is established to find the shortest path with multiple departure times. Unlike the additive multiplication algorithm followed by path generation in dynamic random road network, the path generation obeys due to the fuzzy passage time in dynamic fuzzy road network. In view of this, a method to generate the shortest path with expected time in the network environment is proposed, and a tabu search algorithm is designed to solve the model. Compared with the backtracking algorithm, the tabu search algorithm can efficiently obtain the approximate optimal solution with high accuracy. (3) The shortest path problem with random constraints and Lagrange In order to represent the randomness of the traffic network, the passage time is treated as discrete random variables based on the scene, and a stochastic constrained shortest path model with the objective of minimizing the expected time is established. A heuristic algorithm combining subgradient optimization algorithm, label correction algorithm and K-shortest path algorithm is designed to minimize the relative difference between the upper and lower bounds of the target value in order to obtain the approximate optimal solution. The model is extended to a dynamic stochastic constrained shortest path model and solved by an improved heuristic algorithm. Finally, the properties of the algorithm, the relative difference between the upper and lower bounds and the computational efficiency are analyzed by an example on a traffic network of different sizes. The approximate optimal solution of the example. (4) Evacuation path planning model based on disaster emergency response in random environment. When earthquake, flood and hurricane occur, people in dangerous area should be evacuated to safety area as soon as possible. At the same time, considering the preference degree of the decision maker for risk, the minimax reliability method, the percentile reliability method and the expected negative utility method are introduced to characterize the objective function respectively, and the random evacuation path planning models under different evaluation criteria are established. A heuristic algorithm combined with K-shortest path technique is used to solve the expected negative utility model. Numerical examples show the effectiveness of the algorithm in solving large-scale problems. (5) Two-stage emergency evacuation path planning model in dynamic random environment. According to the real-time traffic information of the road section, the road network is divided into a priori. In the priori optimization stage, the disaster victims evacuate according to the pre-determined plan assuming that the road traffic information can not be obtained when the emergency is about to happen or just happened. Based on the minimum cost flow model, a two-stage stochastic path optimization model with the objective of minimizing the expected total evacuation time is established. Finally, the model is transformed into an equivalent one-stage optimization model, which is combined with the minimum cost path algorithm and the sub-gradient optimization algorithm. A heuristic algorithm based on Lagrange relaxation method is proposed to solve the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491
本文編號：2180720
[Abstract]:Path optimization is a basic problem in the field of transportation. Travelers can not only save travel costs but also play a positive role in improving the efficiency of the whole road network by using the pre-determined optimal path. However, in the actual traffic environment, the state of the road network usually presents a high degree of mobility due to various factors. Therefore, how to fully consider and reasonably deal with the dynamic and uncertainties of complex road network to get closer to the actual road network information and provide effective route guide for travelers is a topic worthy of further discussion. Section travel time and capacity represent the uncertainties and dynamics of traffic network. The generation strategy of dynamic uncertain shortest path and the method of cooperative path optimization are studied. Furthermore, the proposed model and method are applied to the evacuation path optimization of vehicles or people in emergencies. It includes the following five aspects: (1) the evaluation criterion of the optimal path in the dynamic fuzzy traffic network. In the absence of historical data or even no data, the uncertain passage time in the congestion period is treated as dynamic fuzzy variables by expert estimation method. In this paper, three evaluation criteria are proposed for intervals and multiple time intervals (i.e. one time interval). They are deterministic domination criterion, first-order fuzzy domination criterion and fuzzy expectation domination criterion. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the method of comparing the paths under the three domination criteria. (2) The method of solving the expected shortest path in the dynamic fuzzy traffic network. Based on the fuzzy expectation domination criterion, a multi-objective 0-1 mathematical programming model is established to find the shortest path with multiple departure times. Unlike the additive multiplication algorithm followed by path generation in dynamic random road network, the path generation obeys due to the fuzzy passage time in dynamic fuzzy road network. In view of this, a method to generate the shortest path with expected time in the network environment is proposed, and a tabu search algorithm is designed to solve the model. Compared with the backtracking algorithm, the tabu search algorithm can efficiently obtain the approximate optimal solution with high accuracy. (3) The shortest path problem with random constraints and Lagrange In order to represent the randomness of the traffic network, the passage time is treated as discrete random variables based on the scene, and a stochastic constrained shortest path model with the objective of minimizing the expected time is established. A heuristic algorithm combining subgradient optimization algorithm, label correction algorithm and K-shortest path algorithm is designed to minimize the relative difference between the upper and lower bounds of the target value in order to obtain the approximate optimal solution. The model is extended to a dynamic stochastic constrained shortest path model and solved by an improved heuristic algorithm. Finally, the properties of the algorithm, the relative difference between the upper and lower bounds and the computational efficiency are analyzed by an example on a traffic network of different sizes. The approximate optimal solution of the example. (4) Evacuation path planning model based on disaster emergency response in random environment. When earthquake, flood and hurricane occur, people in dangerous area should be evacuated to safety area as soon as possible. At the same time, considering the preference degree of the decision maker for risk, the minimax reliability method, the percentile reliability method and the expected negative utility method are introduced to characterize the objective function respectively, and the random evacuation path planning models under different evaluation criteria are established. A heuristic algorithm combined with K-shortest path technique is used to solve the expected negative utility model. Numerical examples show the effectiveness of the algorithm in solving large-scale problems. (5) Two-stage emergency evacuation path planning model in dynamic random environment. According to the real-time traffic information of the road section, the road network is divided into a priori. In the priori optimization stage, the disaster victims evacuate according to the pre-determined plan assuming that the road traffic information can not be obtained when the emergency is about to happen or just happened. Based on the minimum cost flow model, a two-stage stochastic path optimization model with the objective of minimizing the expected total evacuation time is established. Finally, the model is transformed into an equivalent one-stage optimization model, which is combined with the minimum cost path algorithm and the sub-gradient optimization algorithm. A heuristic algorithm based on Lagrange relaxation method is proposed to solve the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491
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