PPP項目特許期決策模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-11 12:35
【摘要】：近年來,PPP項目被廣泛應用于基礎設施建設領域。PPP項目投資巨大,周期常在十幾年甚至幾十年以上,存在的不確定因素多且影響大；而PPP項目涉及到政府部門、私營經(jīng)濟實體和民眾三方利益,特許期長短往往成為PPP項目成敗的關(guān)鍵。已有特許期決策模型對不確定因素的量化過于主觀,更科學地考慮項目不確定因素的特許期決策方法研究,對PPP項目實際應用具有重要意義。論文通過文獻統(tǒng)計和調(diào)查問卷識別出20種不確定因素,并確定其中的關(guān)鍵因素為：特許期、利率和年均收益,提出了相應的量化方法。針對該方法中存在的12個相對重要系數(shù)構(gòu)建了評價矩陣,考慮到專家評分中存在“噪聲數(shù)據(jù)”,采用模糊層次分析法(FAHP)結(jié)合雙S型進化函數(shù)對評價矩陣中的權(quán)重多方向一階梯度雙向?qū)?yōu),結(jié)合迭代終止準則再分配權(quán)重值。該自適應模型能夠剔除“噪聲數(shù)據(jù)”,在一定程度上緩和了人們評判事物的主觀性思維差異問題,優(yōu)化了特許期決策結(jié)果。最后以某高速公路為例,比較了優(yōu)化前后及傳統(tǒng)NPV、IRR方法得出的特許期值,分析了相應的NPV敏感性。通過實證分析,驗證了論文中提出的方法和模型的可行性。圖11幅,表7個,參考文獻93篇。
[Abstract]:In recent years, PPP projects are widely used in the field of infrastructure construction. PPP project investment is huge, the cycle is often more than ten years or even more than a few decades, there are many uncertain factors and great impact; The PPP project involves the tripartite interests of government, private economic entities and the public, and the duration of the concession is often the key to the success or failure of the PPP project. The existing concession decision model is too subjective for the quantification of uncertain factors, and it is of great significance for the practical application of PPP project to study the concession decision method which considers the uncertain factors of the project more scientifically. In this paper, 20 uncertain factors are identified by literature statistics and questionnaire, and the key factors are: concession period, interest rate and average annual income, and the corresponding quantitative method is put forward. An evaluation matrix is constructed for the 12 relative important coefficients in this method, considering the existence of "noise data" in the expert score. Fuzzy Analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) combined with double S-type evolution function is used to optimize the weights of multi-direction first-order gradient in the evaluation matrix, and the weight value is redistributed with the iterative termination criterion. The adaptive model can eliminate "noise data", alleviate the subjective thinking difference of people judging things to a certain extent, and optimize the decision result of concession period. Finally, taking an expressway as an example, the concession period obtained by traditional NPV,IRR method and before and after optimization is compared, and the sensitivity of NPV is analyzed. The feasibility of the proposed method and model is verified by empirical analysis. 11 figures, 7 tables, 93 references.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU71
本文編號：2324852
[Abstract]:In recent years, PPP projects are widely used in the field of infrastructure construction. PPP project investment is huge, the cycle is often more than ten years or even more than a few decades, there are many uncertain factors and great impact; The PPP project involves the tripartite interests of government, private economic entities and the public, and the duration of the concession is often the key to the success or failure of the PPP project. The existing concession decision model is too subjective for the quantification of uncertain factors, and it is of great significance for the practical application of PPP project to study the concession decision method which considers the uncertain factors of the project more scientifically. In this paper, 20 uncertain factors are identified by literature statistics and questionnaire, and the key factors are: concession period, interest rate and average annual income, and the corresponding quantitative method is put forward. An evaluation matrix is constructed for the 12 relative important coefficients in this method, considering the existence of "noise data" in the expert score. Fuzzy Analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) combined with double S-type evolution function is used to optimize the weights of multi-direction first-order gradient in the evaluation matrix, and the weight value is redistributed with the iterative termination criterion. The adaptive model can eliminate "noise data", alleviate the subjective thinking difference of people judging things to a certain extent, and optimize the decision result of concession period. Finally, taking an expressway as an example, the concession period obtained by traditional NPV,IRR method and before and after optimization is compared, and the sensitivity of NPV is analyzed. The feasibility of the proposed method and model is verified by empirical analysis. 11 figures, 7 tables, 93 references.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU71
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